CBS News estimate for House of Representatives control: tossup

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Rogifan, Jun 3, 2018.

  1. Rogifan macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #1
  2. appleisking macrumors 6502a

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  3. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #3
    Considering that for many, if not most, contested seats, they haven't picked a nominee yet, I think it's premature to criticize candidates' messages. From what I've seen, Democratic candidates who are past the primary stage have actually done a very good job of sticking to core messages of the economy, health care and government ethics. I think that the Virginia state elections last fall were a good example of how candidates that focussed on key local issues did very well. That lesson has not been lost on the DNC.
     
  4. NT1440 macrumors G5

    NT1440

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    Serious question, if the Democrats don’t pull of the “wave” election and gain control of neither houses, will they actually get the hell out of the way of the progressive voices in their party or will they cast themselves into irrelevance trying to suck the sorporate donor teat into eternity?
     
  5. Vanilla Ice macrumors 6502

    Vanilla Ice

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    #5

    They are running on #Resist. So, the American people will resist the Democratic Party.
     
  6. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    It may be best for democrats to let Trump have two terms. While I shudder the thought of Orange Nixon having hundreds more golfing days on taxpayer dollars while dismantling the foundations of our country, the Dems wouldn’t really need a message beyond talking points at that point.
     
  7. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #7
    Sure looks like it.
     
  8. darksithpro macrumors 6502a

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    #8

    LOL, so true.
     
  9. 0007776 Suspended

    0007776

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    It’s not too surprising that it’s heading that direction. The Democrats are having a hard time sending out a message on anything other than impeaching Trump and social issues. Impeaching Trump just adds to the divisiveness infecting our politics while social issues are a loser for either side as most of the middle doesn’t care that much and will prefer to support candidates that address things that actually effect them.
     
  10. alex2792 macrumors 6502a

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    #10
    Are you saying that transgender bathroom access is not THE number 1 issue of our time?:confused:
     
  11. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68040

    Mac'nCheese

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    Ugh. Another poll. Have doing all these polls in the past helped this country at all. Every day there was a new poll in the last election. The pundits on tv are sickening. Well, among black middle class voters this guy is in the lead but only in the mid-west while that guy leads with Latina New Yorkers so this guy can win on the coasts then fart noise.
     
  12. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #12
    I'd argue that Trump's impeachable offenses are what's adding to the divisiveness infecting our politics, but maybe that's just me.
     
  13. Fancuku macrumors 6502a

    Fancuku

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  14. RootBeerMan macrumors 65816

    RootBeerMan

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    #14
    It's still far too early to make any predictions on the races, yet. There are far too many variables and chances for one candidate or another to implode. I'll wait and see what comes up closer to the actual election.
     
  15. LizKat macrumors 601

    LizKat

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    #15
    If that starts looking true to the GOP leadership during 2019, they will primary him. They won't ask him to step down so Mike can take over. They'll just reboot the RNC from where they were in 2016 before Trump showed up. Their superdelegate rules are different now... and so will be their primary schedules. :D No idea where leaves poor ol' Mike Pence. I mean being VP to a President being primaried is not exactly a great slot in the starting gate. otoh Mike does have his own PAC. Would be a first to see a VP take part in primaries vs a sitting Prez. I don't even know if it's legal. He could resign and then run for Prez I guess.
     
  16. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #16
    The idea that the primary message of Democratic Congressional candidates is just opposition to Trump is largely a fiction being pushed by right wing media. As I noted above, many, if not most, of the districts don’t even have nominees yet, but in most cases, individual Democratic candidate are actually focusing primarily on bread and butter issues: health care, economy, environmental protection, transportation reform, government ethics, etc. As much as Republicans would like to pretend it to be the case, very few, if any of them are actually talking impeachment.
     
  17. 0007776, Jun 3, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 4, 2018

    0007776 Suspended

    0007776

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    #17
    It is legal. It would almost guarantee that you wouldn’t be asked to run as VP again if the sitting president won though.
     
  18. jerwin macrumors 68020

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    #18
    source and an excerpt:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics...o-prove-that-dreamer-was-gang-affiliated.html

    It is good that you hope to read such stories-- the truth shall set you free.
     
  19. Zenithal macrumors 604

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    No one will know until the night of the elections. I never understood why anyone put so much faith in either side's top dog when it came to forecasting future votes. Even the very best statisticians can be wrong.
     
  20. Eraserhead, Jun 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2018

    Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #20
    The Democratic Party have seen this sort of result with polling since the beginning. It’s the special elections which point to a wave.

    The result will likely be between D+5 and D+20. That leaves plenty of scope for a wave.

    Personally I’d go for D+12 as a single number prediction.
    --- Post Merged, Jun 3, 2018 ---
    If you go for far left people you’ll lose the soft Conservative voters. And certainly in America that will cost you votes.

    And actually people like Tony Blair despite all the sneers did improve the lives of ordinary people quite a lot.
    --- Post Merged, Jun 3, 2018 ---
    Trump will very much struggle to win a second term unless there are two competing candidates in 2020. He has persuaded basically no one who didn’t vote for him that he’s done a good job and some of his supporters have abandoned him. Plus the left will do better on turnout.
     
  21. 0007776 Suspended

    0007776

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    #21
    You are probably right, but there is definitely a strong possibility of the Democrats going to the far left for their nominee and alienating enough of the center that Trump squeakes by with a similar result to 2016. I think he has almost no chance of winning the popular vote, but he may pull off another EC Zein if the Dems turnout is limited to running up the score in solidly blue states like California and New York.
     
  22. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #22
    No sign of that from the special elections. And even a 1-2 point swing would turn a lot of states.
     
  23. chagla macrumors 6502a

    chagla

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    #23
    Exactly right. It's propaganda. Women, transgender, black have won some special elections recently. So the "blue wave" is definitely there. It's a just negative attempt by the right to demoralize voters. "right" is wrong on many issues.
     
  24. LizKat macrumors 601

    LizKat

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    #24
    :D Quite so! But if a sitting President runs for re-election, is renominated but doesn't want his VP to be running mate again in a re-election campaign, the party's convention has to approve a change.

    Fact: The US Prez is limited to two terms but there's no such stipulation attached to the VP slot. So if Trump were to run again and win a second term, and Pence served with him again, Pence could still be nominated as VP candidate by the next GOP candidate for President, and if that guy won, Pence would be serving his third term as VP... rinse and repeat without restriction. He could serve four terms as VP, run for Prez and serve two terms in the Oval Office.

    Extrapolated fun fantasy: LOL Trump should have run for VP instead of prez... he could have become the strongman behind the throne for a whole string of Republican presidents selected on the basis of their ability to talk a good game and appeal to broad swaths of the public... the Prez would be the puppet and VP-For-Life Trump the puppet master... and still the showman, no doubt. One wonders if former VP Dick Cheney might not have enjoyed that gig even though he was not a spotlight seeker, just a fan of exec power.

    Obvious: there would finally be a Constitutional amendment to FIX.THAT.

    On-topic prediction: The Dems' margin in polling related to the House elections will improve before November. Trump somehow manages to be his own worst enemy at the least opportune times including when he tweets about congressional races. The GOP would probably rather Trump be out on the golf links from now until whenever it next snows in Florida.
     

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