China just let the Yuan go

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by stylinexpat, Aug 4, 2019.

  1. stylinexpat, Aug 4, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019

    stylinexpat macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #1
    Now at just over 7 Yuan to the Dollar. I reckon it should go to 7.50-7.6 It actually barely dropped against the USD and just started. The breaking point started at 6.95 before Trump took office the Chinese out of good Will gesture let the Yuan gain from around 6.95 to around 6.20 but after Trump started his tariff war against China they slowly let it fall back to where it started at and after he got out of control with tariffs they decided to just let it go.
    Blame Trump for this

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  2. cube Suspended

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  3. stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #3
    Trump started it.. I said it before that this was just not about tariffs. There are finances and banking involved. The requests that Trump and his administration are requesting from China to do are absurd. China will not budge and I don’t blame them for not accepting the banking terms that this current Administration wants them to accept. The same goes for trade issues with their international partners. I do support this administration though on intellectual property rights which China abuses. I am with Trump on this but only this.

    I am not complaining as I shorted the indexes this week and last week in the US. Shorting is a no brained these days. Easy money. US Futures Down just over 1.07% as of now with plenty to go.
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  4. stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #4
    Bloody morning due tariff disputes and Yuan sliding

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  5. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #5
    The PRC have plenty to answer for, so Trump didn't have much of a choice. The PRC are betting he will cave to make the economy look good before the election.
     
  6. yaxomoxay macrumors 68040

    yaxomoxay

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    #6
    No surprise. Japan also removed South Korea from the preferred traders list, and SK retaliated.
     
  7. stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #7
    Trump started a bunch of trade wars. Pretty ugly now between South Korea and Japan
     
  8. Rigby macrumors 601

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    #8
    This is just a first shot across the bow, demonstrating one of many ways China can retaliate in response to the Tariff Man. Could get ugly really quickly now.
     
  9. stylinexpat, Aug 5, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019

    stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #9
    Red arrows were goodwill gesture from China for Trump when Trump became President. Blue arrows was when Trump’s Tariff war started as China started to let Yuan slide back to break even point where it started. Blue arrow is when Trump’s BS just got beyond ridiculous and China decided to let Yuan slide. Real slide actually only started to take place after dropping point past 6.95 (take or give). In reality it only dropped around maybe 1.4-2% as of now. Considering that Trump added. tariffs of around 25% and another 10% now not to mention other duties which he referred to as anti-dumping duties of say around 70-1700% on various items like mattresses and beer kegs I would say a -10% drop in currency devaluation is a drop in the bucket. I started shorting at under 6.90 as Trump can not be trusted.
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  10. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #10
    Currency war has been ongoing for quite some time. US is the only major country to have a recent rate-hiking and QT cycle. And, compared to other countries, the rate hikes are quite substantial.

    1/3rd of sovereign bonds have negative yield. What does that tell you about currency wars.

    Southern Europe would love to have a currency war with Northern Europe. They can't with a common currency though.
     
  11. cube Suspended

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    #11
    euro lite
     
  12. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #12
    Check out prices of Spanish banks. There will have to be some massive economic restructuring of Europe to deal with NPLs, moribund economies and income inequality.
     
  13. stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #14
    Long overdue correction. All puts paid nicely today
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  14. duffman9000 macrumors 68000

    duffman9000

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    #15
    I’m assuming you’re choosing where to hide right now. Care to share? Cramer is saying hide with companies with limited exposure to China.
    --- Post Merged, Aug 5, 2019 ---
    It’s a good time to remind farmers on welfare that some fathead thought trade wars are easy to win.
     
  15. stylinexpat, Aug 5, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019

    stylinexpat thread starter macrumors 65816

    stylinexpat

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    #16
    I honestly don't trust Kramer. Sometimes he is right though

    I started shorting Futures indexes about 1-2 weeks ago. Also started buying SPY Puts and Small Cap 2000 Puts. Other trade is shorting Yuan. These are all non-brainer plays after market has had gains this high when market is at peak and sales numbers are dropping from here on. I think markets can be played both ways. You buy when sentiment is bullish and short when sentiment is bearish. China will not sit idle as US does its best to harm and punish China. All these move were preemptive moves by the Trump administration. China showed a lot of restrain but Trump kept at it. In the end it will be the people that pay for this just as the people in Iran and other countries that pay for Trump's sanctions applied upon them. What goes around comes around. Aside from that market has gone up a lot so a small pullback is normal or healthy but also very profitable as well when played right. :)

    When market was down now around -950 I took a small gamble and also bought some SPY calls for a quick in and out trade during this last hour of trade. 10% trade and I am out.I picked up some Aug 16 $284 SPY Calls at $4.50 and will exit those now at around $5.25 if they go that high. Currently at $5 and had a low of $4.2 today. Last hour of trading is tricky. Bid is now up at $5.12

    Yuan is at $7.05 now and I think it is just getting started

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  16. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #17
  17. Rigby macrumors 601

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    #18
    There was a rumor yesterday. Today the Chinese made it official.
     
  18. Plutonius macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #19
    For people who are long term investors in the stock market, this is just a blip.

    For traders in the stock market, they make money with the changes in stock prices (both up and down).
    --- Post Merged, Aug 5, 2019 ---
    Various companies have been moving their supply chains from China.
     
  19. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #20
    That'd be just about everybody with a pension. And I worry this blip might become something larger. We'll see.
     
  20. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #21
    Long-term investors in the $COMPQ lost 80% in the internet bubble crash. There are times when you should take some or all of it off the table. The stock market is very pricey right now and we have declining growth and declining inflation and slowing profit growth. Some sectors are already seeing profit declines. Are we moving from a secular bull to a secular bear?
     
  21. jeremiah256 macrumors 65816

    jeremiah256

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    #22
    I haven’t researched it yet, but have been told China has also heavily invested outside of China such that where ever you go, China has ownership of many of the alternative supply chains.
     
  22. pshufd macrumors 65816

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    #24
    There are a number of downsides to this approach:

    - Consumer inflation
    - Capital flight

    China has been in a currency war for quite some time which is why they regularly have to increase the penalties for capital flight. They have large consumer populations as well and they will have to deal with rising prices and a loss of jobs due to the resulting global slowdown which has been underway in Asia and Europe for a long time and started hitting the United States in Q2.
     
  23. Chew Toy McCoy macrumors regular

    Chew Toy McCoy

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    #25
    Can somebody please explain this to me in non stock market speak? I'm sure its important but after reading all the responses I still have no idea what you are talking about?
     

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46 August 4, 2019