China Stock Market- Mr Toad's Wild Ride Goes Global 2015

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Huntn, Aug 24, 2015.

  1. Huntn, Aug 24, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2015

    Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Location:
    The Misty Mountains
    #1
    I thought this would happen a month ago, when the first reports of a Chinese stock market implosion came out. Years ago, I would have gone to cash... a month ago. But now I have my IRA, aligned conservatively and being managed by a professional group. Fingers crossed... o_O

    [​IMG]

    Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles
     
  2. sualpine macrumors 6502

    sualpine

    Joined:
    May 13, 2013
    #2
    The biggest fear of this is not the crash itself, but rather, it may be the first global recession not triggered by the US. That is a huge sign of globalization and the decrease in US world economy stabilization power.
     
  3. Populism macrumors regular

    Populism

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2014
    #3
    I'm optimistic.

    The last recession followed an overdue, very specific real estate crash. With so much of the economy (at least in the US) tied to real estate, the real estate crash led to a decimation of the job market. The volatile stock market, as I recall, came after all of that.

    Today, real estate prices seem to have leveled and even increased modestly. The job market has generally improved - not by a ton, but at least some.

    My optimism is that what's happening with the stock market is simply what's happening with the stock market - that it's not indicative of, for example, a food scarcity, a skyrocketing of unemployment, a drop in home values (etc.) - rather, it's just a paper loss. China was due a correction. Corrections are not cause for alarm. They mean something is working.

    If people really believe this is "the big one" or "at least a decent sized one", then short the market and laugh all the way to the bank.
     
  4. Huntn, Aug 24, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2015

    Huntn thread starter macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
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    The Misty Mountains
    #4
    I think this is a significant point. China has been asking for this for years. Would it have been better if they had more in the way of regulations, or are roller coaster rides preferable? ;)

    This is the primary reason why I've always hated the stock market. Too much human emotion skews the results in both directions.

    I think the reason it was delayed for so long because it was China and not the U.S. or Europe. That could be good news. The fundamentals for most companies are the same today as they were last week.
     
  5. Populism, Aug 24, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2015

    Populism macrumors regular

    Populism

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2014
    #5
    You phrase that well. My (unpopular) opinion is that sharp volatilities (sp?) in the market will and should occur. My (even more unpopular) opinion is that trying to regulate away the roller coaster rides creates vastly worse problems than regulations solve.

    Then again, I thought Hitman Agent 47 was pretty good.
     
  6. Huntn thread starter macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
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    #6
    I know. :D Regulation: Do we want our banks investing in speculative derivatives with our life savings?? Not really. ;)
     
  7. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2009
    Location:
    Scotland
    #7
    Ever notice how hard it is to get an online plot of market indices that go back more than 3 years? The defaults are always <36 months in the plots.... Short-termism is even inherent in the news about the stock market.
     
  8. Populism macrumors regular

    Populism

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2014
    #8
    Doesn't get more binary than that. Good job of controlling the narrative.
     
  9. Huntn thread starter macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Location:
    The Misty Mountains
    #9
    Wait, you say I'm control? In my best Elvis voice: TYVM. :):p
     

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