CIA chief says Istanbul attack is a warning for Americans

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by aaronvan, Jun 29, 2016.

  1. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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  2. impulse462 Suspended

    impulse462

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  3. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #3
    Accept that Assad isn't going anywhere and stop feeding arms into the Syrian cauldron would be a good start.
     
  4. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    But that would do nothing to prevent ISIL-linked terrorists from buying assault rifles here in the United States. Its not like they'd need to pack them in their suitcases and fly them in from Syria, is it now?

    The reality is that it would be very difficult indeed for foreign terrorists to enter the US and carry out a coordinated-type operation as happened in Turkey.

    Foreign individuals are going to face very close scrutiny before even getting on plane to fly here, and then again upon entry. Chances are they are going to have no support network - no safe houses; no access to vehicles, or intelligence. They are going to find it very hard to get ahold of weapons or explosives.

    Every step in that sort of chain greatly increases the risk of detection and apprehension by intelligence and law enforcement. The only sort of people who would have a reasonable chance of pulling off that sort of operation would be highly-trained and skilled intelligence or special operations operatives. And there is no indication that ISIL has any cadre of such people, let alone those willing to die in the attempt.

    ISIL might like to pull off that sort of operation in the United States. But wanting to do something, and having the means to accomplish it are two very different things.
     
  5. Spink10 Suspended

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    I think that is very accurate. Especially foreign fighters. But certainly copycat extremists will continue to pop up.
     
  6. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

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    Permitting Assad and Russia to go weapons free would certainly keep ISIS busy and ISIS busy in Syria means less opportunity to conduct operations abroad. Also, it would end the civil war quicker.

    All true. However, they only need to enter the U.S. on a tourist visa. We have plenty of homegrown Islamic radicals who will provide reception, staging, onward movement and integration of any ISIS or Al Qaeda teams.

    ISIS is much more sophisticated than you give them credit for. They are a learning organization and they are learning fast.

    Istanbul Ataturk Airport Terrorists Behaved Like a Special Forces Unit

    It might happen tomorrow; it might happen in five years. However, the United States will suffer a multi-axis suicide attack similar to Paris, Beslan, or the Westgate Shopping Mall attack. I believe that is driving Brennan's warning analysis.
     
  7. Meister Suspended

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    #7
    Vote Trump.
     
  8. rdowns macrumors Penryn

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    Never miss an opportunity to use fear against the American people. What else does Brennan want? More money? More power?
     
  9. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    How did these highly-trained foreign fighters make contact with our legion of homegrown Islamic radicals?

    Put up an ad on Craigslist?

    The reason that conspiracies fail, and that lone-wolf attacks so often go undetected, is that every act of communication, and every additional person with knowledge of the operation vastly, vastly increases the chances of it being discovered.

    I'm not saying its impossible that a team of killers from Syria or Morocco could come to the US and execute a mass assault. But it seems unlikely they would be successful.
     
  10. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

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    #10

    No we should pretend everything around the world is peaches and cream and everyone loves our way of life.
     
  11. satcomer macrumors 603

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    Monitor the Internet looking for connections to that part of the world and then record it to listen if it is to ISIS people/sites.
     
  12. bent christian Suspended

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  13. NT1440 macrumors G4

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  14. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

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    As I said above, the United States has enough Muslim citizens willing to execute mass slaughter and mayhem. Some operate solo, some require a nudge from an Islamist in Yemen. "Hey Ahmed, why don't you pass the time by playing a little solitaire?" Some enter the U.S. legally like that Muslim women in San Bernardino who abandoned her infant daughter in order to slaughter American infidels.

    Already do. However, the number of linguists fluent in various regional dialects is woefully inadequate.

    Don't shoot the messenger. Your Messiah hand-picked Brennan, although he no doubt regrets it now.
     
  15. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #15
    And some require the FBI to do all the heavy lifting, including buying the ****ing ammo, before the FBI arrests them and self congratulates in the media.
    https://theintercept.com/2015/02/26/fbi-manufacture-plots-terrorism-isis-grave-threats/
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/16/fbi-entrapment-fake-terror-plots
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/opinion/sunday/terrorist-plots-helped-along-by-the-fbi.html?_r=0
     
  16. bent christian Suspended

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    The CIA is full of rapists, sexual sadists, crooks, and other sorts of scum. The part of the CIA Director's job is to advance a domestic surveillance state. He wants a certain level of constant anxiety among the public. I choose not to live my life in fear.
     
  17. satcomer macrumors 603

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    Trust me when I say there is enough interpreters in the goverment service that do this, in the Hundreds! Plus understand NATO does this together so they do know because that is the way they catch acts sometimes. The rise of the Dark Net is the trouble they are running into but to my current sources say the recently solved that problem, thanks to the British MI staff!
     
  18. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    Does it? I mean, have you ever really done the math on that sort of thing?

    What is the Muslim population of the US: Lets say about 5 million. And of those, roughly half would probably be either too old, or too young, to really fit into the "terroristy" age group. Half of whats left, or about 1.25 million would be women, who - again - don't usually get into the "lone wolf" suicide business.

    Which leaves roughly a million "military age" men. And out of pretty much any group of a million people, you are going to find a few who are a) bitterly opposed to whatever they think that society and/or the United States stands for and b) are willing to die, right now, to make their point.

    What are the statistics on the percentages of American Muslims who would describe themselves as "bitterly opposed" to US Governmental and societal treatment of Muslims? One percent? More? Less? Its obviously not zero. But its not ten percent either. Lets - for argument's sake - say its one percent. Or about 10,000 people.

    Which then brings us to the second part of the equation: Of those ten thousand, how many are willing to give up their lives - their jobs, their homes, girlfriends, parents, wives, children. Their Xboxes and iPhones. Their cars, their freedom, and their lives. And not just in some sort of theoretical, college dorm room bull sort of way. Actually go down to Bass Pro Shop and drop $1500 on a shiny new CMMG Mk3 rifle. Start scoping out potential targets.

    I'd argue that, again, out of the bitterly affected sub-group - only a very tiny fraction would actually take steps to execute a terrorist-type attack. And - again - chances are that before they actually get very far, they are going to come to the attention of the authorities. That they are going to say something, to a friend, a relative, a co-worker - thats going to trip some alarm bells.

    From a purely mathematical standpoint, we in the United States simply don't face much of a threat from Islamic terrorism. Its not zero - as history has shown us. But we simply don't have communities where widespread Islamic fundamentalism is an accepted social norm. And without the self-perpetuating social mechanism that a community provides for violence (as happened, for instance, in some neighborhoods in Belfast in Northern Ireland; or in the gang-controlled areas of Chicago and Los Angeles) - young men simply aren't that interested, as a group, in picking up guns to solve their problems.
     
  19. jkcerda macrumors 6502

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    same goes for gun owners, but you are more than happy to jump at restricting our rights .
     
  20. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

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    Fort Hood + Boston + San Bernardino + Orlando = yes, it happens. The rest of your post was just straw men. Not even Brennan makes those wild claims.
     
  21. bruinsrme macrumors 603

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    Figure 10% of 5 million with a 25:1 kill ratio, that;s a pretty darn significant number
    --- Post Merged, Jun 30, 2016 ---
    There are so many soft targets they could chose for a more devastating kill ratio.
    the latest one was 49:1.
     
  22. vrDrew, Jun 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2016

    vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    Maybe some of my percentages are way off.

    But in the past 8-10 years, how many bona fide Islamic-inspired terrorism incidents have there been in the United States? One or two a year? Working backwards from the guesses I made on the percentages, it sorta works out: ~ 10,000 radicalized Muslims. Of which a small fraction of 1% (0.02% to be precise) decide to commit a terrorist act in any given year. You can argue that either more American Muslims are radicalized, or that those who are radicalized are more likely to act. But you can't argue both, without ending up with numbers that just don't add up.

    If we take the alternate view, that 10% of American Muslims are extremist jihadi wannabes, and that of these, in any given year a significant fraction would actually take action - then you'd see a rash of terrorist attacks. Two or three a week. Not one every six months or so.
     
  23. lowendlinux Contributor

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    #23
    We don't have schools to teach that or anything
     
  24. garirry macrumors 68000

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    It's a warning that maybe we need to stop being scared of terrorists. That's their goal. Don't be scared and they have no reason to kill you.
     
  25. satcomer macrumors 603

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    NATO does though!
     

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