Crime down, 1/3 of Americans likely arrested by 23

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mkrishnan, Dec 19, 2011.

  1. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #1
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204879004577108403536584094.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/us/nearly-a-third-of-americans-are-arrested-by-23-study-says.html

    Interesting juxtaposition of related articles in the news today. The Freakonomics authors make the argument that abortion underlies the trend down in crime (although it's hard to understand then why the concomitant increase in early arrests is happening). Authors point to the possibility that early incarceration either pulls those who would commit future crimes out of the game or else possibly even serves as a very expensive innoculant. With few studies of the incarceration rate issue, it's hard to say for sure that the trend is actual or likely to continue.
     
  2. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #2
    What is this "crime crime" in your title?:p

    Those are interesting reads. Surprising that it is down so much considering the downturn in the economy.
     
  3. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #3
    really? a third arrested by 23? that is fairly disturbing to me

    wonder what the odds are by say 40,50 etc?
     
  4. renewed macrumors 68040

    renewed

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    #4
    100% after Obama's regime tries to implement martial law and concentration camps for the good of democracy.
     
  5. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #5
    I am the 66%

    lol srsly?
     
  6. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #6

    And you wonder why people don't respect your views in PRSI.
     
  7. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #7
    WTF are you talking about?
     
  8. renewed macrumors 68040

    renewed

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    #8
    srsly.

    No, I really don't. And most likely not for the same reason you're thinking.

    The NDAA provisions. Google is your friend.
     
  9. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #9

    Really dude? As ****ed up as NDAA is, your characterization of it above is nothing more than tin-foil blog material.
     
  10. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #10
    Don't tell me to google anything. Post a quoted passage with a link. You didn't even mention NDAA before, you just posted a snarky comment.
     
  11. renewed, Dec 19, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011

    renewed macrumors 68040

    renewed

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    #11
    I just posted a new thread for NDAA discussion. Let's let the OP in this one have a chance to continue.

    Link here.
     
  12. mkrishnan thread starter Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #12
    Thanks, appreciated.
     
  13. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #13
    It's interesting that no figures on the per capita change in police officers was posted too. I would think increased enforcement must have something to do with both numbers.
     
  14. mkrishnan thread starter Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #14
    The Freakonomics take on this topic does address that. IIRC they find a modest but significant effect of this.
     
  15. vipergts2207 macrumors 65816

    vipergts2207

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    #15
    Perhaps this has something to do with it.

    http://blog.norml.org/2011/12/19/do-the-math-the-war-on-pot-is-largely-a-war-upon-young-people/
     
  16. thekev macrumors 604

    thekev

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    #16
    The mistake with his post is suggesting Obama is the only problem here. We've been dealing with that kind of garbage for the past decade. Is his suggestion that things would have been better had McCain won the election? My point being that it's not one person. What we complain about today can be traced back to McCarthyism in an earlier generation. SSDD..... all over again.
     
  17. renewed macrumors 68040

    renewed

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    #17
    1. I posted a new thread so as to allow this one to continue in a forward direction on the subject of the OP.

    2. I posted sources as well as video for those who scolded me earlier, however, they have failed to show up. I guess it's easier to scold about crap than it is to discuss. And to say that people don't respect my views in the PRSI... what a joke.

    Feel free to discuss my beliefs or what I am "suggesting" over in the NDAA thread.
     
  18. CalBoy macrumors 604

    CalBoy

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    #18
    NPR had a show about this a few weeks ago, and there's something bigger than just enforcement going on because rates of violence are down almost uniformly across the entire planet. Interpersonal violence including rape, child abuse, etc are all down across countries that can provide reliable data.

    Perhaps the human appetite for violence has gone into decline as exposure to it has increased? That certainly is plausible given that when asked on an individual basis, people tend to feel that they see more violence in their lives despite the statistical decline that's been occurring for a long time.

    I suspect that the decline in property crimes are mostly attributable to the smaller teenaged population.
     
  19. OutThere macrumors 603

    OutThere

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    #19
    This has been proposed by economists who believe that increasing exposure to violent material—movies and video games—may have the effect of keeping people who are drawn to violence glued to the screen rather than wandering around looking for violent stimulation. They studied movie ratings along side violent crime statistics and found an effect during periods when violent movies were showing:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/technology/07iht-violence.4.9058958.html
     
  20. David085 macrumors 6502a

    David085

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    #20
    Lies, Crime rates don't go down they crime up with the population
     
  21. thekev macrumors 604

    thekev

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    #21
    Fair enough but to clarify I wasn't calling your post garbage. I was saying that things similar to this bill have been an issue for the past decade, and that they echo McCarthyism. It's not just an issue of democrats and republicans, but more one of politicians and a culture of fear mongering. I hate it too.
     
  22. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #22
    i read about a similar article in the german GEO 2-3 years about how "war" is on a massive decline world wide not only in casualty numbers but also in total numbers ... today's wars are so medialized and constantly public that there simply isn't the same relation the 60ties or 70ties where there were countless of wars going on at the same time

    by total numbers we are actually living in one of the most peaceful decades since centuries, especially true in europe
     
  23. mkrishnan thread starter Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #23
    Less people are dying in Europe and the US, but my understanding is that the Congolese war alone killed more than 5M people in about a decade. I think if you consider Congo/Rwanda/Burundi and related casualties, it's hard to draw the conclusion that the world is becoming a safer place?

    OTOH this story definitely gets carried in US war reporting, where Iraq/Afghanistan casualties seem tragic but acceptable, but the large excess civilian mortality (which itself is still much smaller than that in Africa) is almost universally ignored.
     
  24. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #24
    I was detained when I was 20 and 10 months old for minor in consumption. Violent crime is not equivalent to arrest rates.
     
  25. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #25
    Compared to the period between 1890-1950, the next 60 years showed declining numbers in both the sheer number of conflicts and the number of people killed in each. At one point during WWII, around three percent of the world's population was killed.

    This may be cold comfort to someone in the middle of the Congolese Civil War, but the world is more peaceful globally.

    This is an interesting map:

    [​IMG]
     

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