Did the RNC just cut Trump off?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by samcraig, Oct 8, 2016.

  1. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #1
  2. nfl46 macrumors 603

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    Good! They got what they deserve! I'd be surprise if we see another Republican in the White House for many, many years.
     
  3. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #3
    Looks like they've cut off support, yes. We've been talking about it in the "hot mic" thread but maybe keep this one open to see whether RNC sticks to the stoppage of support or resumes it after some assessment of damage (and after debate tomorrow night?)
     
  4. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    I would consider the stoppage to be temporary. If somehow things took a turn against HRC, I'm sure the funds will begin to flow again.

    But if it continues to go badly for Trump, then ...
     
  5. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    ^^^^^^^^^ this. there is not enough there to get rid of him yet so it's all a show really so the GOP can pretend they care.
     
  6. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    The backlash from Trump supporters I think would destroy the chances of any other candidate the RNC would put forward
     
  7. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    you have no idea just how spot on you are, this needed to really be recent and even then I don't think the supporters would care much :(
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    They're going to try to stop downticket loss by ginning up support for those tickets directly. More ground support for the House races, try to get them on the local news etc. They have to get the GOP vote out. There probably has already been an increase in potential voters balking at the idea of voting for anyone at the top, therefore skip it. That's bad for Dems here and there but it's fatal for the Republicans.
     
  9. mdlooker macrumors 65816

    mdlooker

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    I think you're exactly right. An instant vacuum would occur. Trump would go and all of his voters.
     
  10. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    the ONLY way IMHO to get rid of trump AND keep the supporters is to somehow "find evidence" that Trump is a democrat mole :eek:
     
  11. mdlooker macrumors 65816

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    I think even then, they've been so "all in" with him, they still wouldn't vote out of denial, anger, and hope. Remember a good number of them (seemingly) have felt suppressed for decades. They've been completely acting liberated this year.
     
  12. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    #12
    The Trump supporters are 15 million people or so? (the hardcore, from the primaries)

    So okay say the RNC after talking to all 50 states election commissions, finally says here's the deal, your Trump vote will go to [Mitt Romney, whoever] because the candidate Donald Trump has stepped down, and x number of states have accepted Mr. Romney as the GOP presidential substitute. Mr. Pence remains on the ticket as VP candidate.

    Trump supporters go ballistic. "Hang the RNC from the rafters! " To no avail. They vote for Johnson, or stay home.

    Establishment Republicans, 2/3 of the independents and some of the blue dog Dems go for [Romney].

    Hey, it could work. But the kicker is the state election laws, and the "faithless elector" problem in the Electoral College.

    Could end up with electors who don't buy their state's acquiescence to whatever the RNC proposed. Then the thing could end up in the House. And then who knows which conservative or Republican could end up in the oval office.

    I hope they leave Trump in there, let the money flow to downticket races and let Trump take the shellacking. Will be interesting to see if he has negative coattails that trash the downticket GOP races. Lotta money down the tubes.
     
  13. samcraig thread starter macrumors P6

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    Haven't people started voting? How would that work.
     
  14. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    The people vote for a ticket but it's actually for a slate of electors pledged to that ticket.

    When the Electoral College meets in December, the electors theoretically cast their votes according to their pledge.

    There is such a thing as a "faithless elector" - guy refused to vote for the pledge and votes for someone else, but it's rare as hen's teeth.

    The states are who control their own election laws. Their laws say what happens in assorted situations. The national committee is supposed to suggest solutions when ticket problems arise at national level. I don't know what all the states' laws say about replacing a deceased, jailed etc candidate. But they must say something. If they say the "appropriate authority" will identify the replacement -- or say "the governor" etc... they still have to indicate who gets to okay a replacement. Whoever that is, that's who the RNC wants to talk to. If they get everybody (all 50 states) to sign off on one or two options for replacement then they can do a phone conference and pick the final candidate.

    Yeah the Trump fans would go bonkers. And Clinton might win anyway. It's a big risk possibly for nothing.

    The kicker in the fixup is that if "faithless electors" refuse to vote for the replacement for Trump...
     
  15. APlotdevice macrumors 68040

    APlotdevice

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    This is why I respect Republicans who opposed Trump before this latest scandal. People like the Bush family.


    ... wait... ****!
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

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    Per CNN tonight, supposedly they are having a conference call on Monday to discuss his performance the night before and see where they go from here. Right now basically they are in a holding pattern.
     
  17. steve knight macrumors 68020

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    kind of like you pretend you don't???
     
  18. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Weird to think they think he can manage to bail himself out in a debate considered how the first one went.

    The thing about more tapes.. ? could make them not want to decide prematurely to resume supporting him.

    I'm starting to think more about the idea in that wsj piece that @IronWaffle had mentioned, the part about downdrafts from a theoretical ceiling of Trump's that is already maybe around 40% or so. He's really not likely to be picking up more votes from indies, establishment Republicans, blue dog Dems at this point. So... if there are more tapes, this one was bad enough, someone suggests one more is worse... once a GOP candidate gets down below 40% in a year when the highest "third party" isn't cracking 10%, means the Dem is looking at 50-40-10 worst case. That's a blowout if some of that 40% stays home -- and I was already giving the third party 3% more than going to get anyhow. Not saying the Dem would pick up that 3% but it's a Dem cushion even if it stays home.

    Somewhere maybe Reuters I got a glimpse of something said Sanders supporters are ticked at the Goldman transcripts that were released. I don't doubt it (and don't see why they are surprised, if they are surprised), but I think that cannot have much of an effect on the race any more, they are too geo-scattered and a lot of them are in blue states with huge margins anyway.
     
  19. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

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    They might be ticked at Goldman stuff but they are probably mortified by Trump's comments. Plus I think by now the Goldman stuff is probably baked into the cake for Hillary and in no way comparable to the horrible stuff Trump has said. Plus word on the street is there are even worse things out there!

    Trump is disqualified not only due to temperament, but also potential blackmail material. His whole Presidency we would be waiting for another entertainment or radio interview to drop. Too much hanging over his head.
     
  20. Eraserhead macrumors G4

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    I think it's more about the future of the party.
     
  21. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

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    Am I the only one who thinks this is somewhat weird?

    I mean, after all the crazy crap that Trump has said -- "I like vets who weren't captured", "I could shoot someone and people would still vote for me" -- and hundreds of other things, this one is the straw that broke the camel's back?

    I almost (almost) feel sorry for Trump. I mean, while I dislike what he said, it's probably fairly common banter among celebrities and other powerful types. When Trump says Bill Clinton has said worse stuff, I believe it.

    Doesn't make it right, of course, but it would be funny, after all the crazy **** that has come out of Trump's mouth, if this is what finally brings him down.

    It also may mark a turning point. What's going to happen in future campaigns, when someone turns up a candidate's ill-advised Facebook post, YouTube video or tweet...something incredibly stupid they said when they were 18?

    Another point I keep thinking about is: how things have turned! When this campaign started, we were all amazed at how nothing, nothing seemed to hurt Trump. No matter what he said, he was in his ascendency, while Hillary was testifying before Congress and critics were sure an indictment was coming.

    Talk about a change in fortunes!

    And another point. Remember the White House Correspondents Dinner, the one where President Obama so mercilessly ridiculed Trump for his birtherism? I've heard it said that that was the night Trump decided to stop screwing around with "maybe" running for the presidency, and actually go for it.

    Might be true, might not. But if it is true, he may now regret acting on that impulse. :D
     
  22. Eraserhead macrumors G4

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    This is the time the candidates wives tell them to disown Trump.
     
  23. IronWaffle, Oct 9, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2016

    IronWaffle macrumors 6502

    IronWaffle

    #23
    Lots to unpack in the thoughtful post below and I'm stuck with thumb-typing, which would be easier if I had tiny hands. I hope Ttump didn't hear that because he hears things. Me, I first heard that Obama's roast incited Trump's decision to run more than a year ago. More recently, it was put forth in The Washington Post's book Trump Revealed. I haven't read it yet (I'm on my library's waiting at for both it and the wonderful John Dickerson's Whistlestop). This theory also appeared in Frontline's episode devoted to both candidates. It's the focus of this excerpt, which at five minutes includes a deeply distressing comment from Trump surrogate, Amorosa, not the least because she is a close acolyte of his and I get a whiff of his own potential megalomania from the intensity of her delivery:



     
  24. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #24
    On the plus side, if we get all Democrats, maybe Clinton could do what Obama would not because he never had a filibusterproof supermajority. Not with the defections of D's going to R's, congresspeople getting shot, voting the other way because they hated him not being white, and so on. Then again, the Republicans often seem to the toe the line better than the Democrats when voting on issues... like this one:

    http://www.ontheissues.org/SenateVote/Party_2005-63.htm

    How many more can people find? :)
     
  25. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    Sepeku is always an option as well.
     

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