DNC '08 - Worst Case Scenarios?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by trebblekicked, Mar 17, 2008.

  1. trebblekicked macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #1
    Disallowing hyperbole for satirical purposes (too easy), what does the worst case scenario of a convention floor brawl hold for the Democratic party? Could it reach beyond the White House to the midterm elections and losing one or both houses of Congress? Could it be even worse- as in a party split? Would that even be such a bad thing?

    Considering the exponential consequences of botching this presidential election (SCOTUS and the Middle East disaster in particular), I've got to wonder at what point the Party Elders will step in and tell either Obama or Clinton to step aside. And I've got to wonder if either Obama or Clinton will be willing to listen.

    (disclaimer: I'm one of the apparently few people who like both Obama and Clinton, and I don't think John McCain is insane)

    Anyway, let loose your inner Joe Klein and tell me what to expect.
     
  2. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #2
    Worst case scenario:

    Superdelegates go against the people and select HRC for the nomination.

    There will be riots if that happens.
     
  3. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #3
    I'm the opposite, I don't like any of them. Obama looks to be the winner of the Dem nom, unless Hillary pulls a miracle, and I doubt it would be helpful to the party. She was already disliked. After the desperation and mudslinging, it only made her more unpopular among her own. Though she may have won some by going negative based on some of the last few primaries. Though she was much further ahead before, and late polling right up into the election might have been incorrect as it is, so it may not have helped overall. Either way it wasn't enough. Obama has been getting dinged lately, some legitimate things, some not so much, but still effective.

    But they both still win up against McCain in most polls I've read, and based on voting numbers so far, and public mood, I don't see the GOP doing too well. I posted a thread about the Dems getting a surprise win in IL, and it seems to be a trend. There might be some unforeseen things that could lead to the GOP pulling ahead, or that old saying about Dems snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Dems are going to at least keep their lead, if not gain some. The writing is on the wall for the GOP. Not that most people are voting for Dems, but there will definitely be plenty voting against the Repubs. Even if the Dems self implode. McCain could somehow win even with his current stances on the issues, but he'll more than likely have to face a very Dem leading Congress.
     
  4. biturbomunkie macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    hillary gets nominated, riots break out (or another 9/11). W* says "you can't and you won't" and declares a state of emergency, general election gets canceled.

    *feel free to replace with dick (i.e. after a coup d’état) if you like.
     
  5. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #5
    Worst case scenario is that Hillary can pull ahead in the popular vote (legitimately or via some manipulations between WAs non-binding primaries and caucuses, FL and MI) and uses this to pull a superdelegate coup.

    (I'd really like to see a Judgement of Solomon if we end up in a stalemate... all the delegates go to the candidate who is willing to give it up to avoid dividing and hurting the party).

    this could open up the doors to defeat for some congressional seats if the candidate has come out strongly for one or the other candidates.

    Absolute worst case would be a fracture in the party leading to a GOP victory and enough backlash to lose some of the 2006 gains and leave all the branches in GOP hands for 2 years.

    Hopefully McCain hasn't gone senile as I fear and his pandering in recent years has really been just pandering and he's really the same guy from 2000, in which case things might not be as bad as they currently are, although I don't hold much hope for that.

    I'm hoping it doesn't come to that but it wouldn't surprise me.
     
  6. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #6
  7. stevegmu macrumors regular

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    #7
    Ageism is no less worse than sexism or 'racism.'
     
  8. emw macrumors G4

    emw

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    #8
    I hate to admit it (;)) but I agree.

    In my opinion, the worst case scenario still comes down to the superdelegates choosing a nominee that is counter to the popular vote. Do I think it will happen? No, I don't. But the division it would cause would likely splinter the party such that the Republicans would retain the presidency.

    Well, that or there's a massive case of food poisoning and all the toilets back up. That would be pretty bad, too.
     
  9. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #9
    I'm another who believes that the worst case for the Democrats would be for Hillary to be perceived as having unfairly won the nomination. Odds are that a high percentage of black voters would stay home, come November.

    'Rat
     
  10. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #10
    I agree that this is the worst possible outcome for the Democrat Party.
     
  11. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #11
    fixed that for you.
     
  12. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    #12
    Like others have already said: Hillary getting the nomination without the popular vote or by elected delegates. If she gets the nomination based on super delegates only, I'm sure I won't be the only liberal not voting for her (I'm not going to stay home because I still want to vote on ballot issues, of course).
     
  13. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #13
    I'll go along with the Hillary scenario, though I certainly don't think there would be riots, nor a split in the party.

    A split in the party would only come if there were severe philosophical differences, and there aren't enough between the Obama and Clinton contingents to make a split possible. You'd need to have a true liberal faction (of the Kucinich-Metzenbaum variety) and a moderate/conservative faction, both pushing hard in opposite directions, for that to happen.
     
  14. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    #14
    while i agree that riots are a bit much, i do think there would be a certain split without a doubt were hilary to get the nom without the popular vote. too many people are sick and tired of their voices and votes meaning nothing in politics.
     
  15. Thanatoast macrumors 6502a

    Thanatoast

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    #15
    Worst case: DPD pulls an NYPD and locks up all the protesters and activists in pens and arrests anyone who looks funny. This goes out over network news with the headline "DNC '08 Convention Terrorized by Rioters Intent on Disrupting Proceedings". Every Joe Six-pack who's hoping for Change realizes it's out of the question. Every Jane Six-pack praying nightly for the Lord to deliver them from evil, gays and the French thinks "figures, damn hippies".

    Hillbama is elected and we continue down our path of less freedom, more inequality and a sense of "**** it".

    THAT is the worst case scenario.
     
  16. trebblekicked thread starter macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #16
    I was thinking more like 'don't be constrained by non-fiction', but touché nonetheless.

    I agree with your point, but why the condescending quotation marks around racism?

    I wouldn't predict a schism due to the issues or philosophy, but to strategy and tactics. Obama and Clinton are six of one, half dozen of the other on most policy. Yet the tone of their campaigns, the ways they communicate to the electorate and the source of their perceived mandates are vastly different. The cynic in me says that strategy determines the issues, not the other way around. If the math comes out such that it's politically viable, the Old Guard dems who feel passed over in Howard Dean's Democratic Party may pick a couple wedge issues and stake out on their own, hoping to win the Centerist crowd.

    But that's the fiction writer in me coming out...
     
  17. Full of Win macrumors 68030

    Full of Win

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    #17
    I'm a right-wing-wingnut - so for me this is the best case

    HRC gets more popular votes and uses that to demand a VP slot, which will hurt the overall ticket. Its the best of both worlds for us Republicans. You dims have really made this a close election...thank you :)
     
  18. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #18
    I'm sure stevemgu will be along shortly to decry this lowering of the discourse. Unless he's a hypocrite of course...
     
  19. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #19
    Worst case is they destroy one another and a moderate McCaine gets elected but Bush still has to ask him to move before he sits down. This is the worst.
     
  20. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #20
    No, zioxide, you didn't fix anything.

    Look: If among the black population of voters it is perceived that Hillary's group cheated Obama from the candidacy, it is highly likely that their disgust for how he was treated will outweigh any sense of party loyalty. Some percentage--and I think it will be appreciable--will just stay home. Remember, Obama has been getting some 90% of the black vote in the primaries, per the pollsters/demographers. (FWIW, Hillary gets a definite majority among women voters.)

    Staying home is less likely among other Democrats, particularly among the faithful who will vote against any Republican, no matter who's in the race. That doesn't mean there won't be some who stay at home on principle.

    'Rat
     
  21. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #21
    Well, I'm white and there's no way in hell I'm voting for Hillary if she pulls some ******** to steal the nomination (I know a bunch of other kids who feel this way too). It's not just the african american voters who wouldn't vote for her.
     
  22. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #22
    To be honest... After its all said and done, I'm gradually working to make myself "ok" with a McCain win (or I'll put myself in a mental hospital following all these hair pin turns). I mean honestly. This is a mess right now.

    Clinton shouldn't have been egging Florida and Michigan so hard into believing anything different than the other candidates, except perhaps a polite reconsideration or equitable arrangement. From what she said about healthcare, I can see her methodology though (if you don't start at the "extreme" there's no where left to compromise when you come to the table.)

    The "race" curfuffle in the Democratic party right now is pretty crazy. So many ill-informed and tough, yet understandable biases at play... it's pretty sobering to look at. Rush Limbaugh's Clinton endorsement seemed like a joke, yet now, Ohio results and exit interviews have more than confirmed that a sizeable amount of votes from Republicans came in for Hillary under false pretenses. The quotes themselves have been pretty disturbing (while tales of Democrats doing the same in past races have added some measure of balance).

    I don't know if the Dems can clean things up, and pull things around for the general election. Messy, messy, messy.

    ~ CB
     
  23. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #23
    zioxide, the deal is not to project one's own views onto the behavior of groups or significant parts of groups. That's why I mentioned polls and demographers. I trust them more than my own seat-of-the-pants ideas I might get from headlines or news comments.

    "...a sizeable amount of votes from Republicans came in for Hillary under false pretenses."

    Nothing at all new, there. It almost always happens when one party has a candidate who's pretty much got it sewed up, but there's controversy among the other party's candidates. Been going on forever, but nowadays we have a lot more instantaneous yak-yak about it.

    There are also local issues. For instance, in my area the main brouhaha was in the Democratic Party's candidates for District Attorney. Many Republicans crossed over, since they're as affected by a DA as any Democrat. The issue was the incumbent's failure to prosecute in domestic/child abuse cases.

    'Rat
     
  24. Pittsax macrumors 6502

    Pittsax

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    #24
    Don't look now, but a lot of Republicans in Pennsylvania are switching parties so they can vote for Hillary in the primary because they believe it'll help McCain in the general.

    Are you paying attention out there super delegates?
     
  25. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #25
    Wouldn't it be simple enough to just have a rule that says "as long as the Republican party nominee has not had his/her requirements met, Republicans can switch over"? Considering how easy it is... and the tremendous PA lead time, I guess that doesn't even matter. Skip it. Yikes this is getting messy. The GOP is proud of this strategy too. Obama can't rightly make his "Obamacans" speechlet anymore. :sad:

    ~ CB
     

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