Do you feel like apple might not last more than 15-20 years from now?

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by DBZmusicboy01, Jan 20, 2014.

  1. DBZmusicboy01 macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2011
    #1
    I feel like in about 5 years they would start going down very fast...Samsung or another company will overtake them. It's very sad but I don't even know what could be amazing for iPhone 10
     
  2. DJLC, Jan 20, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2014

    DJLC macrumors 6502a

    DJLC

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2005
    Location:
    Mooresville, NC
    #2
    I don't even know what could be amazing for Newton 10.

    I don't even know what could be amazing for Macintosh Plus 2.

    I don't even know what could be amazing for Apple IV.

    My point being: they'll last so long as they continue to iterate and innovate on products that have mass appeal. And I think they can do that. Maybe not consistently stay at the top, but survive nonetheless.
     
  3. Dulcimer macrumors 6502a

    Dulcimer

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2012
    #3
    Well, no company lasts forever at the top. Look at how Sony declined and the way Microsoft is starting to do so.

    I can picture two scenarios for Apple's possible future decline:

    1. The retirement of the highly talented executive team (Ive, Federighi, Cook, Cue, etc.) causing an influx of upper management stiffs to replace them; or

    2. A new, highly disruptive technology (e.g., flexible/stretchable screens) or gadget (think iPod and iPhone) comes out of nowhere like a curveball that no other company (including Apple) expected.
     
  4. carjakester macrumors 68020

    carjakester

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2013
    Location:
    Midwest
  5. Jessica Lares macrumors G3

    Jessica Lares

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2009
    Location:
    Near Dallas, Texas, USA
    #5
    I think the industry will collapse as a whole. But there isn't a reason to worry about it until we get there.

    15 years is a long, long, long time.
     
  6. LIVEFRMNYC macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    #6
    15-20 years from now Apple and even MS could be a thing of the past. It's too long of a time frame to predict.

    I think within 5 years or sooner, Apple will have full OSX on tablets. Whether it's dual booting iOS/OSX or just OSX. Maybe iOS will cease to exist as OSX is filling any iOS void when it comes to features and streamline way of doing things. This will crush any Surface pro and will give Android tablet manufacturers a very hard time selling the top of the line tablets without any full OS options for consumers. Only low priced Android tablets will sell.


    I agree with you about the iPhone. I think Samsung will eventually create a smartphone that will make even the most die hard iPhone fanbois crossover.

    Just my opinion of what might happen based on a 5 minute thought, no need for 10 paragraph relies. ;)
     
  7. Ray Brady macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    #7
    Apple was around for 30 years before the iPhone saw the light of day, so they're clearly capable of doing other things. I'm not even convinced we'll still be using phones 20 years from now, but even if the iPhone went away entirely, it does not necessarily follow that Apple would have nothing else to produce.

    Put it this way: AT&T and Western Union both survived the death of the telegraph.
     
  8. citizenzen macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    #8
    It would take an amazing plunge in fortune to be gone in 15-20 years.

    I personally wouldn't bet on that outcome.
     
  9. phrehdd macrumors 68040

    phrehdd

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2008
    #9
    I doubt Apple will go away but I can certainly see it changing its offerings. Perhaps more devices under the Apple logo will appear, and of course - more services.

    Apple might also go into other business ventures that complement what they are doing now and do their usual attempt to create a quasi monopoly akin to iTunes "lock in" with the ATV etc.

    Apple to me is not an innovative company at this point but a large company that simply wishes to remain competitive with high mark up. I'll continue to use a Mac as long as Micro$haft produces a crap operating system. However, I am on my last iPhone and will exit Apple's IOS when my contract expires. Apple still does some things with form over function and similar with their iPads. (Last time at an Apple Store, one of the staff told me they had 7 returns of the Ipad Mini retina because the people complained how tiny the fonts were and the work arounds were pathetic).

    I do hope to see Apple in our future but a more hungry, customer sensitive caring company.
     
  10. wordoflife macrumors 604

    wordoflife

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2009
    #10
    It took Apple many many years to get where it is now. Some random company that we don't know about won't be able to take Apple down overnight. We already know who the players are ... and where they stand.

    Considering how much more we are being invested in the Apple ecosystem (iTunes, App Store to Facetime and iMessage... etc) I don't think it's going anywhere.
     
  11. Tsuchiya macrumors 68020

    Tsuchiya

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2008
    #11
    Doubt it.

    No competitor can match the quality and design of an Apple product, they have diversified their product line so theres something that appeals to everyone, and besides they have enough to survive on in terms of raw cash and other assets which can be liquified.
     
  12. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    Boston
    #12
    Who knows, 20 years is an awfully long time to prognosticate. I will say this, there has been a surprising lack if innovation from apple these past few years. Even last year there was grumbling from Apple's board of directors about the lack of new products being released and the slow pace.
     
  13. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2003
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    #13
    Who cares. Apple is only a company and there will always be another that will come along.
     
  14. Shrink macrumors G3

    Shrink

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2011
    Location:
    New England, USA
    #14
    I'll likely be dead in 20 years...so it's not a major issue for me.

    And it's all about me...isn't it!?:cool:

    :rolleyes: ;)
     
  15. Arran macrumors 68040

    Arran

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2008
    Location:
    Atlanta, USA
    #15
    If Apple was a one-product-company (iPhone) then yes, you might have a point. But Apple's M.O. is more about taking existing technologies and refining and repackaging them into something that's easy for consumers to use. "Easy" sells. At a premium, apparently.

    So as long as there's something being done badly in the world, Apple (and companies like it) will have endless opportunities to do it better.
     
  16. VI™ macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Location:
    Shepherdsturd, WV
    #16
    srsly? Apple does make more than one product...
     
  17. whooleytoo macrumors 603

    whooleytoo

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2002
    Location:
    Cork, Ireland.
    #17
    I very much doubt it. Apple have been incredibly adaptable. They moved an intensely product-loyal user/fan-base from one product to another (switching OS from MacOS to Unix-based OS X, switching hardware platforms from 680x0 to PowerPC to Intel). They started making music players, and did very well. Started making phones, and excelled. Started making tablets, and have helped the market expand to the point it threatens desktop/laptop sales.

    Provided they can keep their design-led focus, there still are a lot of "greenfield" opportunities out there. In-car computing. Wearable computing. (Home) gaming consoles. Smart TVs. Home automation integration.

    I've been very critical of Apple in the past (planned obsolescence, limiting user choice) but to me it seems they're focusing more on well engineered solutions. My Air is one of the best devices I've ever owned, still think it's amazing the performance from such a small device. I'm sure if I could afford a Mac Pro, I'd say the same! Love iOS7 too, didn't think I would.
     
  18. sdilley14 macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2007
    Location:
    Mesa, AZ
    #18
    Everything is cyclical...civilizations, governments, industries, companies. Apple is the largest, most valuable tech company in the world right now. Do I think that they can sustain this type of dominance over the next 15-20 years? No. But it would take an incredible, incredible fall from grace for Apple to be completely obsolete in that time frame. It's impossible to predict since it's impossible to predict what type of products will be created, which new and un-thought-of product segments could be created between now and then, and which companies will create these products.

    If Apple simply sits on their laurels for the next 15 years and continues to just release improved versions of the products they currently offer, I think they would still be around and thriving...not dominating, but thriving. If they continue to churn out new, "never seen before" type products every 5-10 years (iPod, iPhone, iPad.....insert product we haven't even thought of yet here), then they will remain a competitive powerhouse of a company IMO.
     
  19. daneoni, Jan 26, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014

    daneoni macrumors G4

    daneoni

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2006
    #19
    I disagree. Apple survived before the iPhone and i'd wager they'll do that post-iOS devices. They're tied down by legacy support like MS/Adobe and they're aren't flat-footed like Sony. They may not do what popular opinion suggests but they do something. Their cash-reserve is nothing to sneeze at either.

    Also, there's a culture of grooming/discipleship whereby veterans pass on the torch. Example being Jobs to Cook, Ive and his design team, Mansfield and his Engineering team, Avie to Bertrand to Federighi (software team)

    And even if Apple were to fail it won't be because of Samsung. Samsung is a hardware company first, they absolutely suck at software imho. Just look at what happened with Bada and how they're struggling to get Tizen to market.

    Samsung are largely where they are today in the mobile space because of Apple...and to a lesser extent Google. Although credit to them because if there's one thing Samsung is good at, its being agile...unlike Sony.
     
  20. sjinsjca macrumors 68000

    sjinsjca

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    #20
    Of course they'll last.

    Their sales could go to zero tomorrow, and their cash will carry them about that long.

    Sheesh.
     
  21. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2007
    Location:
    Colorado
    #21
    Agreed, I think Apple is hear to stay.
     
  22. The Doctor11 macrumors 603

    The Doctor11

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2013
    Location:
    New York
  23. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2003
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    #23
    They better be or Samsung will lose much of it's R&D :D.
     
  24. Siderz macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2012
    #24
    You'll be able to do something else silly like scroll through pages by breathing.

    ----------

    They will, and then I'll become CEO and it'll get back to the Jobs days.

    I am the second coming of Steve Jobs!
     
  25. jdechko macrumors 68040

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2004
    #25
    Agreed. Think about all of the civilizations that were at the top hundreds or thousands of years ago. Think of the Roman Empire at it's peak.

    Even more recently and more to the point, think of how far huge industries have fallen. Not that steel & railroads aren't important, but they've been surpassed.

    Personally, in 15-20 years, I don't think that any of the top technology companies are still going to be at the top. Apple, Google, Microsoft will all be surpassed. (Companies like Samsung & Sony don't necessarily count, they're more like conglomerates who happen to have hi-tech divisions.)

    Disruption will eventually happen, whether Apple misses the mark with a product (unlikely) or fails to realize a new market in time (more probably).

    One thing is for sure, when it finally does happen, some anti-Apple tech pundit will point to all the past Apple-is-doomed articles, and say that the pundits were right all along. :rolleyes: (And even a broken watch is right twice a day).
     

Share This Page