Do you think the economy is better?

Limlin

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Sep 6, 2009
8
0
In the nearly past one year do you think the economy is better? When can we walk out of the recession???
 

maflynn

Moderator
Staff member
May 3, 2009
63,864
30,391
Boston
No to put it simply.

While yes the metrics are showing an uptick in GDP, the sad truth is too many are still out of work. My wife has been out since January and still her prospects for a job any job appear to be dim :(

unemployment here in the US is still increasing, not leveling off or decreasing, while the technical definition of the recession (GDP increasing 2 periods) is occurring many people are so afraid of losing their jobs they're not spending money or like in my case unable to spend money.

Foreclosures are still occurring at a rapid pace, people losing their homes is probably one a sad travesty to befall a person and unfortunately its continuing.

[/depressing]

I don't want to end on a depressing note so I will say I am thankful that my children and wife are healthy and I have a job and hopefully things will be turning around.
 

mscriv

macrumors 601
Aug 14, 2008
4,911
586
Dallas, Texas
I don't want to end on a depressing note so I will say I am thankful that my children and wife are healthy and I have a job and hopefully things will be turning around.
And you got your first MR Fantasy Football win this past week. Sometimes you have to be grateful for the small things. :)

The economy is still not where it needs to be. I'm not sure exactly what metric or measure we are we looking for to say the recession is over, but I know there is still an overall sense of fear that appears to be hanging over many people.
 

Rodimus Prime

macrumors G4
Oct 9, 2006
10,132
4
I think the only reason people think it is getting better is because it is no longer dropping getting worse at a much much slower pace.

As it stands people are still lossing there jobs every months. Orders for rare materials is still falling. Durable goods orders are still falling. All signs I see are still negitive.

Unemployment will continue to rise until at 125k new jobs are added every month. It takes a 125k new jobs a month just to hold unemployment steady.

Also the US economy has been in a depression for months now because by the classic definition it is in a depression (over a 10% drop in GDP)
 

wvuwhat

macrumors 65816
Sep 26, 2007
1,157
35
It's not "good" until I can find a job. It seems to be improving though. I think we have 2 years till we're o.k. and 5 years until houses jump up around where they were.
 

maflynn

Moderator
Staff member
May 3, 2009
63,864
30,391
Boston
And you got your first MR Fantasy Football win this past week. Sometimes you have to be grateful for the small things. :)
The wife and I are.

While its difficult for us, its not as bad as others have it, we're able to pay the mortgage, my children are healthy and we're healthy. We are very grateful for the blessing we do have.
 

Rapmastac1

macrumors 65816
Aug 5, 2006
1,113
45
In the Depths of the SLC!
From what I heard, it's going to stay bad like this for a really long time. In five to eight years time it will seem better but that is only because we have become accustom to it.

The only way to do anything, in my opinion, to improve our situation is to have a Government reform. Get intelligent people who live through what we do in the office to make the decisions that make us more successful. Right now the government is making decisions for us that are bad, and the worst part is we are letting them get away with it. Man would they love it if they can take out the first amendment...
 

Queso

Suspended
Mar 4, 2006
11,832
7
It's stopped collapsing, but I don't yet see signs of improvement. Not unless you're in Asia anyway.
 

Silencio

macrumors 68020
Jul 18, 2002
2,357
228
NYC
The only way to do anything, in my opinion, to improve our situation is to have a Government reform. Get intelligent people who live through what we do in the office to make the decisions that make us more successful. Right now the government is making decisions for us that are bad, and the worst part is we are letting them get away with it. Man would they love it if they can take out the first amendment...
People like us who've lived through the effects of economic bad times would be much more susceptible to getting bought off by all the money thrown about by the banking and insurance lobbies, that's for sure. I am not comfortable or happy that the guys in the past two administrations who've been responsible for the bailouts are so closely tied to the corporations that helped get us in this mess to begin with (Goldman Sachs, et al.), but I do believe the bailouts -- horribly distasteful as they were -- saved the economy from a real depression-level crash.

The problem is, in return for the bailouts, the government hasn't stepped forward with any meaningful regulation reform. This is critical to avoid a repeat of the bubble that burst last year. I don't want to regulate the life out of the markets, but I do think it's fair to trade a little bit of growth for more long-term stability that makes planning and investment more predictable.

Overall, there are some positive signs for the economy as a whole, but employment is always unfortunately a trailing indicator. I don't see it getting much better until next year, really. Personally, I'm not getting as many billable hours as I once did, but on the other hand, my investments are doing pretty well.
 

IntheNet

macrumors regular
Oct 6, 2009
190
0
People like us who've lived through the effects of economic bad times would be much more susceptible to getting bought off by all the money thrown about by the banking and insurance lobbies, that's for sure. I am not comfortable or happy that the guys in the past two administrations who've been responsible for the bailouts are so closely tied to the corporations that helped get us in this mess to begin with (Goldman Sachs, et al.), but I do believe the bailouts -- horribly distasteful as they were -- saved the economy from a real depression-level crash.
Regrettably I disagree; the massive bailouts (and the equally large stimulus) by the Federal Government were both massive failures! Banks are still failing and those that are still alive have not yet extended lines of credit. So what was the purpose of the bailouts to the banks? In regard to the bailouts of private firms, AIG and others, you'll be pleased to know that AIG is back in the business of giving million dollar bonuses to its top folks. Lastly, in regard to massive federal stimulus, no sign of promised jobs has occurred and unemployment rose from 8% to current 9.7%. Far worse, both the bailout funds and the stimulus funds will need be paid back; a huge increase in our deficit on the backs of our youth and subsequent taxpayers! So what was that you said about bailouts saving us from crash?

The problem is, in return for the bailouts, the government hasn't stepped forward with any meaningful regulation reform. This is critical to avoid a repeat of the bubble that burst last year. I don't want to regulate the life out of the markets, but I do think it's fair to trade a little bit of growth for more long-term stability that makes planning and investment more predictable.
Regulation reform? How about the Federal Government putting a stop to what put us in the depression/recession in the first place? Forcing the banks to approve Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans to low-income homebuyers that are unable to pay precipitated the housing crisis! And you know what, nothing has been done about this situation! These loans are still going toxic, adding to our federal deficit and bankrupting banks/loan agencies that were forced to approve the loans. Before any "regulation reform" how about addressing the failures that are obvious at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and the insane rules that force private banks to make unwise loans to those completely unable to pay?

Overall, there are some positive signs for the economy as a whole, but employment is always unfortunately a trailing indicator. I don't see it getting much better until next year, really. Personally, I'm not getting as many billable hours as I once did, but on the other hand, my investments are doing pretty well.
Here I agree, partially. I too certainly don't see U.S. economy getting much better until next year; but far worse (a greater threat actually) is the steep deficit the current administration has embarked upon in spending - far greater by 2 or 3 times than the deficit we had before, particularly if socialized health care passes. Asian debt buyers have already indicated their unwillingness to assume more debt and if they start unloading U.S. securities you're going to wish for the good times of a depression in comparison. Overnight the U.S. dollar could be made worthless and our economy will crash; this is all the fault of the Treasury Department for the last six months of printing money it can't justify and the Fed for approving it. We're on a course to ruin as a nation and the signs are quite clear! All of this is over and above the rapidly escalating unemployment signs (9.7 overall and in places as high as 14%) that the administration is ignoring.
 

leekohler

macrumors G5
Dec 22, 2004
14,162
19
Chicago, Illinois
Regrettably I disagree; the massive bailouts (and the equally large stimulus) by the Federal Government were both massive failures! Banks are still failing and those that are still alive have not yet extended lines of credit. So what was the purpose of the bailouts to the banks? In regard to the bailouts of private firms, AIG and others, you'll be pleased to know that AIG is back in the business of giving million dollar bonuses to its top folks. Lastly, in regard to massive federal stimulus, no sign of promised jobs has occurred and unemployment rose from 8% to current 9.7%. Far worse, both the bailout funds and the stimulus funds will need be paid back; a huge increase in our deficit on the backs of our youth and subsequent taxpayers! So what was that you said about bailouts saving us from crash?



Regulation reform? How about the Federal Government putting a stop to what put us in the depression/recession in the first place? Forcing the banks to approve Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans to low-income homebuyers that are unable to pay precipitated the housing crisis! And you know what, nothing has been done about this situation! These loans are still going toxic, adding to our federal deficit and bankrupting banks/loan agencies that were forced to approve the loans. Before any "regulation reform" how about addressing the failures that are obvious at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and the insane rules that force private banks to make unwise loans to those completely unable to pay?



Here I agree, partially. I too certainly don't see U.S. economy getting much better until next year; but far worse (a greater threat actually) is the steep deficit the current administration has embarked upon in spending - far greater by 2 or 3 times than the deficit we had before, particularly if socialized health care passes. Asian debt buyers have already indicated their unwillingness to assume more debt and if they start unloading U.S. securities you're going to wish for the good times of a depression in comparison. Overnight the U.S. dollar could be made worthless and our economy will crash; this is all the fault of the Treasury Department for the last six months of printing money it can't justify and the Fed for approving it. We're on a course to ruin as a nation and the signs are quite clear! All of this is over and above the rapidly escalating unemployment signs (9.7 overall and in places as high as 14%) that the administration is ignoring.
But of course, Bush didn't cause any of this. It's all just the last 10 months, right? :rolleyes:

I respectfully request this be moved to the PRSI.
 

Thomas Veil

macrumors 68020
Feb 14, 2004
2,436
5,539
OBJECTIVE reality
It can't due to the OP is not eligible to participate in the PRSI.
:confused: Well then anybody could post PRSI material anywhere on these forums simply on the basis that they don't have enough posts yet for the PRSI forum.

As to the economy:

The housing market seems marginally better. I think that's mainly because people who were planning to buy a house before the crash now finally feel confident enough to do it. You really don't see a lot of enthusiastic developers lining up to build new neighborhoods yet.

The stock market is better. Whoop-de-doo. All that means is that now that the worst is over, companies have found a way to make do without all the people they just axed.

The fact of the matter is that people are still jobless, and a lot of us who aren't are still skeptical about spending money. Why not? They've been in a 30 year downward spiral during which the overriding philosophy of industry has been shrinking, not growing, their way to success. Shrinking the employee base until nobody has any money to buy things. Yeah, that's a recipe for boom times. :rolleyes: Until we change that attitude, things are gong to continue to be bad.
 

IntheNet

macrumors regular
Oct 6, 2009
190
0
But of course, Bush didn't cause any of this. It's all just the last 10 months, right? :rolleyes:
Why bring up former President Bush? This is a discussion of the economy now, not the economy last November. Secondly, re-read my prior reply; I carefully enumerated the conditions of the economy, why the current administration is making it worse, and what to expect, economically speaking, in the future. It was not trolling but a carefully crafted response. Respectfully we should address these points and refrain from bringing in prior administration's decisions since the current economy belongs to the current administration.
 

bruinsrme

macrumors 604
Oct 26, 2008
6,561
2,281
when my friends and I are not scared out of our pants that tomorrow might be the last day the company is in business I will then believe the economy is better.
We, as a country, have to start thinking about us as a country.
Take care of home, first.
 

Chaszmyr

macrumors 601
Aug 9, 2002
4,265
76
It's not great, and unemployment is probably the most important thing and will probably be the last to improve. Still, with the Dow almost 40% higher than it was 7 months ago, it seems a little extreme to say that the economy hasn't improved at all.
 

leekohler

macrumors G5
Dec 22, 2004
14,162
19
Chicago, Illinois
Why bring up former President Bush? This is a discussion of the economy now, not the economy last November. Secondly, re-read my prior reply; I carefully enumerated the conditions of the economy, why the current administration is making it worse, and what to expect, economically speaking, in the future. It was not trolling but a carefully crafted response. Respectfully we should address these points and refrain from bringing in prior administration's decisions since the current economy belongs to the current administration.
BS. An economy doesn't tank because of an administration that's been in office for a mere 10 months. The economy has been crap for a lot longer than that, a lot of it due to the actions Bush administration. That is an undeniable fact. Therefore, bringing up the past administration is quite relevant. I didn't hear people like you screaming bloody murder when Bush gave away cash to the banks and car companies.
 

IntheNet

macrumors regular
Oct 6, 2009
190
0
BS. An economy doesn't tank because of an administration that's been in office for a mere 10 months. The economy has been crap for a lot longer than that, a lot of it due to the actions Bush administration. That is an undeniable fact. Therefore, bringing up the past administration is quite relevant. I didn't hear people like you screaming bloody murder when Bush gave away cash to the banks and car companies.
Since you wish to surface the prior administration's affect on the current economy rather than address Obama's economic mismanagement, let's also surface the fact that the prior administration also inherited a recession (2001) that it solved largely through tax cuts. While I admit that recession was not as severe as the current one, the Bush Administration did in fact curb the 2001 recession through demonstrated policy action. Such positive action by the current administration on the economy is lacking, since the stimulus and bailouts this year by Obama have done nothing to ease the current recession or ease the growing unemployment. Unemployment is in fact growing worse. Secondly, as my initially post detailed, the current administration's intense and continuing deficit spending - two to three times prior deficit spending - jeopardizes all Americans for subsequent generations for decades of debt.
 

quagmire

macrumors 603
Apr 19, 2004
6,255
1,063
:confused: Well then anybody could post PRSI material anywhere on these forums simply on the basis that they don't have enough posts yet for the PRSI forum.
Those threads are usually wastelanded/locked because as you know PRSI forum rules is the OP must be able to participate in the thread. If they are not able to( like in this case), the thread gets locked/wastelanded( from what I have observed in the past).
 

Thomas Veil

macrumors 68020
Feb 14, 2004
2,436
5,539
OBJECTIVE reality
Forcing the banks to approve Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans to low-income homebuyers that are unable to pay precipitated the housing crisis!
I guess that's another reason this thread isn't in PRSI: that talking point has been shot down multiple times over there.

I know Nobel Prizes aren't worth much around here ;) but Paul Krugman says deregulation just might've had more to do with it :

KRUGMAN: ...There are a lot of people who know insist that if we know government is bad, we know private sector is good, so it must have been government that caused the crisis. And the absence of any facts that actually sort of go in accord with that point of view don‘t seem to matter.

I mean—of course, the way to think about it is that we had a pretty tightly regulated banking sector, from FDR up until Ronald Reagan, and a number of financial crises during that period, zero.

MADDOW: Yes.

KRUGMAN: Then we had Reagan deregulation, savings and loan crisis, further deregulation, East Asian financial crisis, and even more deregulation and—well, here we are. So, yes, it‘s a pretty amazing point of view for anyone to be holding, but a lot of people do hold it.
 

Gregg2

macrumors 603
May 22, 2008
5,812
344
Milwaukee, WI
... the sad truth is too many are still out of work.
It's that "jobless recovery" the pundits keep yammering about. How is it a recovery without jobs??

Respectfully we should address these points and refrain from bringing in prior administration's decisions since the current economy belongs to the current administration.
Well, I'm one who thinks that the economy affects the politicians more than the other way around. It's a monster! The things the Congress does take years to have any effect, most of the time. Remember, when the credit crisis hit, pundits were making the point that a relaxation of regulations in the Clinton administration was the genesis of it. Now, people who like Bill Clinton protested loudly, but that's politics, not economics.
 

Limlin

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Sep 6, 2009
8
0
No to put it simply.

While yes the metrics are showing an uptick in GDP, the sad truth is too many are still out of work. My wife has been out since January and still her prospects for a job any job appear to be dim :(

unemployment here in the US is still increasing, not leveling off or decreasing, while the technical definition of the recession (GDP increasing 2 periods) is occurring many people are so afraid of losing their jobs they're not spending money or like in my case unable to spend money.

Foreclosures are still occurring at a rapid pace, people losing their homes is probably one a sad travesty to befall a person and unfortunately its continuing.

[/depressing]

I don't want to end on a depressing note so I will say I am thankful that my children and wife are healthy and I have a job and hopefully things will be turning around.
Yes, the unemployment rate is still very high and I also have been out of job since March. But luckily I got one in July and everything is becoming better.
As you said you can enjoy the warmth of kinship. That's great and everything will be fine soon.:)