Does the action of Rubio and Kasich tell us what's going to happen next?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 1458279, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #1
    Rubio: tells Ohio voters to vote Kasich before the vote. He loses FL and drops out.

    Kasich: Wins Ohio and tells the media he will stay in. He needs 101% of the vote to win. He has NO PATH to victory.

    After the win in Ohio, Kasich has fewer delegates than Rubio had when he quit.

    These two actions seem to be sending a clear message of intent to have a brokered convention.

    Further, it could be said that based on Rubio losing his home state by a huge margin that he is going against the wishes of his own party in his own state. This would be inline with the general feeling of the people about Washington.

    Brokered convention or not?
    Breakup of the GOP if it ends up not being Trump or Cruz?
     
  2. AlliFlowers Contributor

    AlliFlowers

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    Brokered convention. Kasich is still a possibility, but I'm more inclined to believe the GOP will nominate Paul Ryan.
     
  3. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    Kasich will take votes away from Cruz, not trump.

    It will be a brokered convention, however Trump and Cruz will position themselves as a ticket and the GOP will have no choice but to accept it.
     
  4. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    Once Jeb! bounced out, it was pretty clear that Republican insiders have been attempting to game the system for a brokered convention.

    The next few elections will really illustrate this. Right now, of the remaining 946 delegates, Trump needs 65 percent of them to win. Cruz needs 88 percent. Kasich and Rubio cannot win, as they need more than the remaining votes available to hit the delegate count of 1,237.

    And, unfortunately for the insurgency against Trump, 10 of the remaining states are winner take all.

    So, GOP gambit has to be increasingly built around denying Trump a few of those states, while earning votes in the proportional elections to make a brokered convention necessary. And, it seems that the GOP has been working toward this strategy since early Feb., which may explain why Mitt Romney filed as a 2016 candidate with the FEC on Feb. 1.

    And, Kasich is probably hoping that in a brokered convention, he comes across as the one guy that everyone hates the least.
    --- Post Merged, Mar 16, 2016 ---
    I tend to agree. Kasich doesn't hurt Trump and, if the GOP really wanted to stump Trump, they'd tell him to power down and let Cruz and Trump work a two-man race—which makes the proportional states more valuable.

    I wonder though, if Trump and Cruz have to be running mates. Trump doesn't need Cruz, so much as he needs to collect the delegates from Kasich and Rubio.
     
  5. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    Do you guys actually know how a brokered convention works? Will Trump and Cruz get to know what the pick is before it's made? Meaning, will they have a chance to make a deal if they find out Paul or whoever gets it, can they say no and join forces, or are they left in the dark until the pick is made?

    Who runs this brokered convention anyway?

    Would Trump or Cruz have a chance to go independent at that point, or is that no longer in the cards? I've heard it's out of the cards already, but maybe not because if the GOP can replace someone at the last min, why can't the IND?
     
  6. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    The GOP runs the convention and the brokering will be down between party leaders and delegates.

    Essentially, the delegates will have a floor vote. If no one hits the number of delegates needed to win, then the delegates will have a second floor vote, but during that second vote many of the delegates will be released from having to vote for their state candidate—some are still required to follow through on their state's results.

    The convention will then go through multiple votes until someone becomes the winner. During this, brokers can try to convince delegate leaders to switch to their favored candidate.

    Some of this will happen directly on the floor, but some of this will happen out of the public's eye.
     
  7. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    Looks like there's an open question about Romney. Either way, he can't get in, we didn't like him that much last time and he's against the wishes of the voters.
    http://www.thepostemail.com/2016/03/09/fec-romney-has-not-filed-documents-to-run-for-president/
     
  8. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    Reince Priebus.
     
  9. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    It sounds like any Trump/Cruz ticket would have to be agreed in advanced and maybe even announced very early on.

    Can they announce this in between the votes?

    I'm still confused, when would Trump and/or Cruz speak or what part do they play in this process? When you say party leaders, that include Trump, Cruz and who?
     
  10. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    I believe so.

    Those guys are candidates, and while they can certainly have a role, they're not party leaders. Instead, look to Reince Priebus, Sharon Day, Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, Ryan, Cathy Morris Rodgers, Karl Rove, etc.
     
  11. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    Two things can happen at the brokered convention.

    1. The GOP looks at the remaining candidates and how they poll vs. the democrat nominee and nudge the delegates towards his direction (it is about winning the WH after all).

    2. The GOP, as to not piss off the voters (Bible thumpers, uneducated, well educated) they urge the delegates to back the front runner to be the nominee.

    Depending on how Trump conducts himself from now until Cleveland will determine his viability as a legitimate presidential candidate and not just some guy who can get a redneck who snorts meth and ****s his sister all riled up. It's not just about winning over the voters at this point in time, he has to win over the party leaders.
     
  12. mrkramer macrumors 603

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    Since about Super Tuesday its been clear that it's either a brokered convention or Trump. If most of Rubio's voters go to Kasich he'll start pulling off some more wins and hopefully between him and Cruz they get enough to deny Trump the nomination.
     
  13. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Kasich pitches ticket of Kasich/Rubio for the general. Rubio probably did help him out in Ohio after all. Rubio is unemployed as of January since he didn't stand for re-election to the Senate from Florida, so it would sure work out for him. Ohio and Florida together at last. Crimson Tide in the swing states. Of course Rubio did lose Florida... second time is the charm? They'd have to make sure Trump was not in the picture. Taking Trump out of the picture is a GOP leadership goal...

    Trump and Cruz are like sodium in water, no? "Ly'in Ted" is what Trump calls him. Ted's pretty free calling people liars wherever he roams too (notably having called the majority leader of the Senate a liar, so unusual a practice that it drew media attention). I don't really see them on the same ticket. New York magnate, Texas lawyer. Where's the love?
     
  14. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    If that's true, the party's probably done with.
     
  15. Gjwilly macrumors 68030

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    Almost all of it will happen out of the public's eye because the days of network TV devoting a week to a convention are long gone. The people get to see the balloons drop. That's about it.
     
  16. mrkramer macrumors 603

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    If there's something interesting happening they will adjust their schedules to cover it.
     
  17. Gjwilly, Mar 16, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2016

    Gjwilly macrumors 68030

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    A brokered convention is very much like an election for student body president.
    The candidates directly address the convention arguing why they should be picked. The order that they speak and the time that they get to speak is determined by the convention rules.

    That's what happens on the stage anyway.
    Behind the scenes it's let's make a deal.
     
  18. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Looks like the candidates prefer to keep things uninteresting for the near future:

    Politico says last Republican debate (for March 22 in Salt Lake City) has been cancelled. Trump withdrew. Kasich said he wouldn't debate if Trump wouldn't debate. Cruz said he'd debate either one, or both. No one-man debate. So, no debate.
     
  19. mrkramer macrumors 603

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    Well there were so many debates already, it wouldn't have changed anything. Trump will still have a hard time avoiding a brokered convention, but we will see it isn't impossible for him either.
     
  20. rdowns macrumors Penryn

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    Not surprised Trump doesn't want to debate any more. With only 3 candidates, it was bound to move more towards policy and less insults.
     
  21. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    Not much reason for a debate at this point. We know who the top 2 are. Some might be in the middle but I can't see a big shift. They actually have a number of things in common and appeal to a bit different group, but overall not much need to debate.

    Maybe they can get Bernie and Cruz to go at it.
     
  22. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    This may prove a year where, between votes, the candidate speaking to the delegates on the floor and pitching the VP pick could work the magic. I assume the candidate would run the pick past the party honchos first. Gotta wonder if Trump would bother vetting his choice to those honchos, though, since at least right now it looks like they'll still be out to derail him.

    Every time I think I'm suffering from information overload I realize there's all those VP picks to consider.

    Clinton / mystery-VP v Trump / mystery-VP

    Clinton / mystery-VP v Kasich / mystery-VP
    Somehow I can't get to Clinton v Cruz at all any more, never mind their VP picks. I hope that's not a sign he'll be the next president. Texas and.... New Jersey?!

    Trump would not pick Christie since an East Coast ticket is out of the question. Why Christie endorsed Trump is beyond me except that the guy is just politically slow as molasses.

    Clinton picks an Hispanic. Trump picks Nikki Haley, who refuses. Trump picks Mike Lee... a Cruz proxy?

    Clinton picks Tulsi Gabbard (who resigned from DNC to support Bernie). I don't konw what Gabbard would do but @aaronvan would wade through the razorwire, cross the aisle, hold nose and cast his vote for Clinton/Gabbard.

    Hmm the idea of Trump/Mike Lee is growing on me as a Republican base uniter. I hope I'm all wrong there.
     
  23. thewap, Mar 16, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2016

    thewap macrumors demi-god

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    #23
    Heard some scuttlebutt that the neocons will push Jeb Bush to the electorate. The real question is will the electorate change their minds and disregard the popular votes.

    Now the word is that Paul Ryan might also be presented as the option to Trump.
     
  24. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #24
    Looks like Rubio has some kind of power because he hasn't ended his run. His run being suspended changes the status of the delegates.

    Anyone understand how that works? Suspend vs officially end and what happens to the delegates?

    Ok, looks like Rubio keeps control over his delegates until he fully quits. So he holds some power.
    --- Post Merged, Mar 16, 2016 ---
    Careful, I just had lunch and don't want to puke. I'll personally slap each one of them.
     
  25. LizKat macrumors 68040

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    Oh.My.Gawd. These guys are just so annoyed they poured a hundred million and change into Jeb's run.

    How long before the guy with the 28 pages syndrome shows up in this thread.
     

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