Doing the math - which primaries can add up to a win?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by LizKat, Jan 23, 2016.

  1. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #1
    You can tell the calendar’s creeping towards polling dates. Politico has a piece out called Why the GOP Primary Could Be Even Crazier Than You Think, aka "an insider’s guide to 19 long weeks of chaos."

    Major date by major date they lay out the skirmishes and how many delegates could be brought home to one fold or another. Somewhere up in the land of spirits, Tim Russert is readying his whiteboard and marking pens to explain to us how Kasich, Rubio, Bush or even your cable guy can nail down enough delegates to become the GOP nominee. But since Tim’s not on the same plane as we are any more, Politico’s made a valiant effort to fill in. Enjoy!

     
  2. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #2
    another article of interest along this line, this one from fivethirtyeight.com. It speculates about how and when Trump, Cruz & Rubio might win enough delegates to get the nomination......there's also a table listing all of the states and the number each of the three would need to win;

    link


    [​IMG]
     
  3. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #3
    Hillary gets the Dem nod and Rubio gets the GOP nom. Rubio goes on to lose to Hillary.

    Those are my rock-solid predictions. If you don't like them, I have others. o_O
     
  4. ericgtr12 macrumors 6502a

    ericgtr12

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    #4
    Republicans used to laugh at Nate Silver, now they all want to hire him. Numbers and math were never their thing.
     
  5. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #5
    I'm good with that in the end. Better than assorted other Republican-wins options. Just because she won't have my vote from within New York state doesn't mean I don't want a Democrat in the WH in 2017.

    Really if the Republicans had wanted to win against Clinton they should have tried to heal their party before now don't you think? Ditch their wingers, reach out sooner to Hispanics and Asians, etc. Late in the day now for that as far as the 2016 race goes. Marco Rubio's their best chance if they're still actually interested. Maybe he'll surprise and prove up to the task. In which case I'll be appalled, no doubt. But less appalled than if Palin's sidekick had won the nomination.

    And of course if it's Bernie for the Dems, then game over, the guy from Vermont goes to Washington and Marco goes back to the Senate for 8 more years of seasoning. :D
     
  6. ericgtr12 macrumors 6502a

    ericgtr12

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    #6
    Trump is looking unstoppable at this point, who knew threatening to shoot people would boost his poll numbers but hey, it works for Kim Jong Un so who am I do judge.
     
  7. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #7
    Yah I'm getting pretty disgusted. Not sure I'm joking any more when I say can't decide whether to break out the popcorn for the summer showdown, or go stand in line to update my passport. I hope the guy's followers are louder than they are numerous when the time comes for counting ballots.

    (goes back to checking on popcorn inventory, and conjugating Portugeuse verbs as a hedge)
     
  8. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #8
    Seems a little early to say that when he only has low 30s support and there hasn't been a single vote cast yet.
    He isn't going to start raking in the delegates until they get to the winner takes all primaries mid March.
     
  9. vrDrew macrumors 65816

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    #9
    The science of polling and predictions have gotten better in recent years. But for various reasons the actual gathering of pre-election polling data has gotten a lot worse. Many pollsters still conduct most of their polls by calling landlines - at a time when an increasing share of the population (and especially young people) don't even have one.

    The thing to keep in mind about Donald Trump: He polls particularly well amongst people who don't vote.

    It certainly is possible that the Republican primary season could start to shake out once actual primaries start happening. I would hope, for the good of the GOP, that support coalesces around a more mainstream candidate such as Rubio (Bush seems all but dead, even now.)

    But if not - it seems we are likely to head into the General Election with the Republicans fielding a Candidate who is either highly disliked within his own party (Cruz) - or Donald Trump.
     
  10. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #10
    Howard Dean looked unstoppable in 2004 then Iowa happened.
     
  11. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #11
    I agree polling accurately has become dicier in the past six or eight years. But it might be possible to compensate for that somewhat in sifting the data as that trend continues. They get some benefit from seeing how they're off in each iteration of elections.

    The GOP needs a candidate who understands how to negotiate (as opposed to threaten and dictate). Yet here they are with these two lone rangers, and the few feasible general election candidates all polling single digits except Rubio's modest 13-15%.

    What to do, what to do. The RNC must be praying for Sanders to win the Dems' nomination. But then there's "be careful what you pray for..." as it's quite difficult to tell how averse the general electorate overall might be to a Cruz or Trump.

    Well I'm binge-watching the last few episodes of Downton Abbey, the final season, so my brain is heading back to enjoying Yorkshire of 1925. I wash my hands of the GOP's problems for this evening, and I bet at least half the RNC would like to do the same for even longer. :p
    --- Post Merged, Jan 26, 2016 ---
    Trump sure makes Dean look like a town councilman excited over some zoning proposal... but a lot has happened to the electorate since 2004. We're crazier now, evidently.
     
  12. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

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    #12
    When will the Lions play in the Superbowl? :(
     
  13. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #13
    Yesterday I started getting information on how to become a UK citizen.... Mind you, Europe is not the safe, progressive place it once was.
     
  14. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #14
    I think a Hillary-Castro ticket would be very strong for the Democrats.

    As a Democrat, I fear a Rubio-Haley ticket more than any other. I slightly fear a ticket involving Kasich, although I'm far more confident that one won't happen.
     
  15. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #15
    I'm far too old to worry about "safe" places :D and as for "progressive" well if I stay here much longer I'll start thinking of Kasich as progressive. I had in mind Brazil, where I've some extended family, but I'd miss the cold weather here for sure.

    Anyway you know what they say, "wherever you go, there you are" -- another way of saying the grass only looks greener on the other side of the fence.

    You're right to think Rubio-Haley could be a threat. It may depend on what happens to the youngsters working for Sanders if they are disappointed by end of primaries. The old fogies like me who vote Dem and favor Sanders might vote Green in blue states and on the Democratic line elsewhere, but the kids are pretty fired up for turning a new page. Hope they wouldn't just stay home but I don't know if Clinton-Castro is enough of a draw. Rubio and Haley could be pretty magnetic and it's hard to say whether younger voters understand a vote for them is not a vote to depart establishment politics in practice.
     

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