Dropout Predictions?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by stevento, Jan 4, 2008.

  1. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #1
    We've only had one caucus, so everyone has alot of opinions about who's going to go against whom, but who do you see dropping out?

    Edwards "implies" Hillary is out of the race. , according to CNN.

    Who do you see throwing the towel in?
    We know Dodd is out.
    I see all dems except the big three dropping out. Kucinich told his supporters to go to Barack Obama's corner if his own campaign loses steam.
    Richardson is expected to do the same for Hillary.

    I see Rudy Guliani dropping out (1% in iowa) and ron paul is probably gone.
     
  2. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #2
    There is no way Guliani is going to drop out after Iowa. He didn't even campaign there. I see Paul lasting a few more before he drops, or tries as an independent.
     
  3. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #3
    911-iani isn't going to drop anytime soon, he probably has a better chance in other states. Kucinich and Richardson are probably gone after NH. Ditto for Paul (and I'll be laughing at all of the hardcore Ron Paul supporters who swore this guy had a chance.....those morons seem to be all over my college campus. They're not all morons though, 2 of them are my good friends, who will be getting some crap from me :D). Thompson and McCain will probably hold on for a bit longer. But by the end of this month, it will probably be down to the big 3 from both parties.

    Mike Gravel and Duncan Hunter aren't even worth mentioning.....oops, I just did mention them.
     
  4. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #4
    ron paul dissapointed me greatly. he was supposed to be the grassroot cinderella story of the repubicans.
     
  5. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #5
    That was never really true. He surprised everyone with his fundraising, but all he seemed to do was bring new voters in, maybe convince some of the more libertarian moderates. Despite what his fans seem to think, he doesn't have a legitimate chance. He continues to poll low, and that he garnered so high a percentage says more about the low amount of conservatives voting and their lack of options than his viability.

    Hillary and Rudy still have a fighting chance, but only if they do well elsewhere. If they continue to do poorly, they'll still keep fighting, but we'll all know it's over. Might already be. Gravel, Kucinich, and Thompson don't have a chance, but they're going to keep fighting too.
     
  6. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #6
    The man is crazy. He fooled a lot of people, including my roommate. When I sent him to his website, especially the "life and liberty" section, he cooled off his enthusiasm for Paul almost immediately. I think the word he used to refer to Ron Paul was "wacko".
     
  7. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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  8. MikeTheC Guest

    MikeTheC

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    #8
    Well, if Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination, I'll be doing up some shirts on CafePress.com something to the effect of "Don't blame me, I voted for Ron Paul."

    Dunno if he has a chance or not, but I prefer him over the others. So, we'll see.
     
  9. MikeTheC Guest

    MikeTheC

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    #9
    Probably not a bad thing. He kind of reminds me of a used car salesman. Tancredo's gone too, btw.
     
  10. Daveway macrumors 68040

    Daveway

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    #10
    There's nothing wacko about believing the unborn have a right to life...
     
  11. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #11
    I disagree. According to a poll I saw this morning, McCain was leading in NH with 31.3%, Romney had 28.9%, Huckabee was at 10%.

    If it holds true, you have two different winners in two different states with Romney in second in both states. I think that will keep him in the game for a lot longer.

    I think Thompson, Paul, Kuncinich, Gravel are done after NH.
     
  12. rockthecasbah macrumors 68020

    rockthecasbah

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    #12
    Duncan Hunter should be dropping out relatively soon. Other than that for the GOP, everyone will hang in there for as long as possible. Guiliani is waiting for the big states, Huckabee has "momentum" from Iowa, Mitt's got the cash and support, McCain has enough support to stay for the long haul and the "independent appeal," Ron Paul has the cash and the support, and Thompson... he's too lazy to drop out until at least the big states start :rolleyes:

    As for Dems, on the chopping block are now Richardson, Kucinich, and Gravel (though arguably Gravel's campaign has been on the chopping block since it was first started ;)). I don't really know when to say who will drop out, but it's likely to be Kucinich next who will throw his full support to Obama, perhaps after South Carolina? Gravel will probably just keep in it for only God knows why, and Richardson will really be dead after he doesn't do well in South Carolina.

    I really have no idea what to say with John Edwards. He did well in Iowa but he has really campaigned quite little anywhere else. Perhaps if he has some poor showings in the upcoming weeks his campaign will be threatened, but if not, he'll be in it for the long haul.
     
  13. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #13
    There are plenty of other things on that page that are.
     
  14. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    #14
    I wouldn't be so quick to think Kucinich will drop out. If I recall correctly, he was the only one besides Kerry to stick it out until the nomination convention in the 2004 elections. Wether or not he does the same this year, we will see.
     
  15. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #15
    I agree. It be a bit of a surprise if Kucinich drops out any time soon. He's got a message he wants to get across and will likely continue on. If either Clinton or Obama get the nomaination wrapped up before the convention, then he might drop out in return for a chance to make a speech or something. It's the same for Ron Paul. He's got a message and he's raised a lot of money so it's hard to see him giving it up any time soon either. Both Kucinich and Paul have run before and I doubt that either are exactly surprised not to be winning.

    As for most of the rest of them, there are about 20 states with primarys on February 5 and it's hard to see many more of them giving up before then.
     
  16. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #16
    no i dont think so. that's what john edwards has been saying about hillary.
    the thing is she used to be WAAAAAAAAY out in front and now she's not. they say that because they want her to drop out.
    if hillary drops out (which she never will) edwards and obama are the only ones left to be on the ticket.

    what i hate about ron paul is that he wants to legalize just about everything.
     
  17. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #17
    Paul was on Leno tonight so we shall see if that gives him ay help.
     
  18. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #18
    ::: goes over to Ron Paul website, clicks ISSUES > LIFE & LIBERTY ::: Wow. Yeah. Crazy man. No White House for you! Bad, Ron Paul... BAD!

    ~ CB
     
  19. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #19
    I hope Ron Paul wins..... but he wont so that's unfortunate
     
  20. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #20
    It's really interesting to see the tectonic plates shift around...

    Clinton showing signs of fatigue and stress:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/u...78008661040043&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

    Obama scoring high with women:
    http://www.nypost.com/seven/01072008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/bam__our_1st_woman_prez__246772.htm

    Hollywood leaves Clinton a "Dear Hillary" letter:
    http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-cause8jan08,0,4545063.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel

    Clinton said to be on "drop-out" watch, funding sources drying up:
    http://drudgereport.com/flashhn.htm

    Bloomberg's Billion Dollar 3rd party possibility stymied by Obama's addressing over key issues of partisanship and mobilization of Independants.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/us/politics/08bloomberg.html?_r=1&ref=nyregion&oref=slogin

    ~ CB
     
  21. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #21
    if bloomberg wants to throw his hat in he better hurry up.
     
  22. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #22
    Just to add to that, while I realize the 10 votes counted in the Democratic primary in NH thus far mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, if this is indicative of how the rest of the state is going to vote, the Hillary's in trouble: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/08/nh.main/index.html
     
  23. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #23
    Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble and I think we'll see a withdrawal sooner than later, just to keep an honourable face on things.

    The campaign has been an inflexible mess, predicated on the assumption that she was the overwhelming favourite, the over-reliance on Bill Clinton, the misunderstanding of the issues that seem to be driving uncommitted voters in a primary, the outright woman-hating — from both women and men — she's been on the receiving end of, the triangulation tactics of Obama and Edwards... and the Oprah endorsement for Obama swung more independents at such a crucial time than has been given credit for.

    The campaign shot its bolts too early, trying to fight a national campaign at local level, in my opinion. People like a winner, the momentum is with Obama who will surely win the nomination now.

    A week is a long time in politics, but given the reported mood of the country, it seems that those early favourites who haven't stepped up at the early stages — Giuliani too with his late gamble — are in danger of stalling outright.
     
  24. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #24
    Early results from New Hampshire show I haven't got the faintest clue of what I'm talking about. :D
     
  25. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #25
    Well, polls are polls. We'll see how it goes. It's certainly looking like she's managed to turn things around in that initial 18%. America is watching. 40% to 36% so far... I guess its a toss up between Clinton's long established support in NH and the fact that the smaller precincts and reporting first.

    ~ CB
     

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