Dutch Elections Thread

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by yaxomoxay, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    #1
    I haven't seen a thread on the very important Dutch Elections of 3/15, so I am opening this one.

    Many say that if Mr. Wilders wins the Euro is going to be history. Mr. Rutte (current PM) is ahead in the polls but just of a 3% margin. Considering recent history, and considering that typically the right parties underperform in the pre-electoral polls, I would say that 3% is not a safe margin.
     
  2. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #2
    Perhaps with Brexit and Trump fewer people will stay home on election days in Europe....
     
  3. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #3
    The PVV have declined a good bit over the last few weeks.
    Remains to be seen what impact (if any) the recent shouting match with Turkey will have.
     
  4. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #4
    how does it actually look in terms of coalition options for Wilder's party ? I've read that there are more than 25 partys standing for election so i suspect that, even if he wins, that, he only might be able to have minority goverment if he doesn't garner further support.
     
  5. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #5
    I was just listening to a podcast on the Dutch election. Aparently all the other parties have announced they will not go into coalition with them (the PVV) so it looks like there will be a 4 or 5 party coalition government depending on how exactly things end. Things seem pretty divided (7 parties with >10 seats out of 150) and even if the PPV manage to be the largest party they will still have <30 seats.
     
  6. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #6
    Has his margin been getting bigger or smaller recently?
     
  7. MLVC macrumors 6502

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    #7
    Rutte's margin has been increasing since Erdogan lost his mind. Wilders will not become prime minister unless he gets >50% of the votes (something that has never happened and won't happen this time either).
     
  8. Zenithal macrumors 68040

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    #8
    It's a lose-lose for Erdogan. Rutte isn't bending over to Erdogan's demands because Erdogan is in deep with his people and needs his referendum. Wilders hates the Turks. What's awfully stupid is that a 2nd+ generation Dutch-Turk is capable of voting on Turkish issues even if they've never stepped in that country and have no desire to do so, unless I'm mistaken here. Bit like asking 3rd generation Irish-Americans or Americans with an Irish ethnic background whose family came to the states a few generations ago and asked them to vote on Irish issues.
     
  9. takao, Mar 15, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017

    takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #9
    Erdogan was betting on an european country reacting to provocations. It's entirely about domestic positionining for a "them vs us" attitude which helps him with his referendum.
    The exile turks in Austria,Germany Netherlands are all quite rigid in their voting patterns since years, either pro or against Erdogan. At home though there are a lot of undecided voters left to win.

    Merkel simply pushed the responsibility to the town councils etc, and thus avoided to present Erdogan with a target. The town council of Guggenau(?) isn't exactly a very prestigous opponent.
    Austria isn't in an election campaign, isn't a NATO member but neutral, has little international influence, and has opposed Erdogan for a long time. Selling them as a new atagonist would have been difficult.

    The Netherlands were an easy choice because they government had to react because of the election. And they are a NATO member.


    At least the Netherlands will have only have to endure it for a few months. Once Erdogan goes for the death penalty re-introduction the pointless EU-Turkey talks can be finally stopped.
     
  10. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #10
    This. It was actually a win-win situation for Erdogan.
     
  11. Cox Orange, Mar 15, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017

    Cox Orange macrumors 68000

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    #11
    While talking about seats. I just yesterday learned, that Wilders is the only member of his own party. I thought I had misunderstood and googled it and Wikipedia says this, too. He refuses everyone who wants to become a member.
    I wonder, why that fact hasn't been heard more often before, because I find that makes him (even more) ridiculous.
    I assume those seats in the past parliament that may get seen as "oh some members are not attending the discussion" by viewers on TV, are actually and have always been empty seats for Wilders alone. :D
    Sorry, if this is a widely known fact that only was unknown to me, but I find this hilarious.

    I lately heard an international editor say that when you hear news about Europe told by people in the US and China you get the impression that soon Wilders and Le Pen will be President and Merkel will loose, too and its the total end to Europe. While no one in these countries (and as it seems their media that informs them as well) sees, that in France there are two runs and it is very unlikely that Le Pen will win the second round, because it is unlikely that voters that didn't vote Le Pen in the first run will vote for her in the second, because that would mean to vote against middle/left/right and instead right-populist - and that as we have already found out in this thread no one wants to do a coalition with Wilders, nor can't he successfully make a minority government and he won't get over 50%.
    He also added that this image comes from a world press that is dominated by anglo-saxon/american newspapers.

    Edit: it was Wolfgang Blau (former chief editor of "Zeit Online" and till 2015 senior executive of the digital branch of the „Guardian“. Also, was part of the management of Guardian News & Media. Currently „Chief Digital Officer“ at publisher "Condé Nast International" in London. He will become their president in august), who talked about the recognition of Europe in the world through british (and US/chinese) newspapers, if you understand german watch at 57:00 here
    (he said a lot more interesting things before that, too).
     
  12. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #12
    according to exit polls Rutte's VVD looks to be to be the nr 1 party.(31 seats)

    Positions 2 to 4 pretty much undecided between Wilders(19), christ democratic(19), pro european liberal economy party D66(19)
    Greens(16) and Socialist party(14) not far behind

    Biggest winner in terms of seats won: Green Party with quadrupling their voters(+12), biggest loser: PvdA (-29)

    http://nos.nl/artikel/2163343-exitpoll-vvd-veruit-de-grootste-partij.html
     
  13. Cox Orange macrumors 68000

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    #13
    Even the "Party for the Animals" gained 3+ seats now totalling 5 :D (I saw them in a congratulations interview just a view minutes ago on TV)
     
  14. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #14
    I said it before, talking about France, but I guess it can also apply to NL: Trump's victory (and antics) has had a "careful with what you wish for" effect in Europe.

    Good that the greens gain traction.
     
  15. firestarter macrumors 603

    firestarter

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    #15
    All other parties have refused to form a coalition with him, so even if he won the largest number of seats he would not be able to form a government.

    He's not done as well as he predicted in the exit polls. I think he may do better in the votes themselves; he strikes me as the type of candidate that people are shy to admit they support.
     
  16. Rigby macrumors 601

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    #16
    The first projections just came in and confirm the result (VVD: 32%, CDA: 21%, Wilders' PVV: 20%). Hopefully this will be the beginning of the end of the populist stupidity fad.

    PS: I wonder why all the xenophobic wannabe authoritarians seem to have an affinity for silly hairdos (see Wilders, Trump, Johnson)? :p
     
  17. Zenithal macrumors 68040

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    #17
    Turkey may have wanted EU membership at one point, but their citizens don't seem to care for it now. Erdogan's major voting base outside of expats were people outside of the main metro areas. The ones who'd been ignored for years. See a pattern here? Turkey faced hurdles to get into the EU, including some it's tried to negotiate for years. The 10 year outlook for Turkey is bleak at the moment.
     
  18. nia820 macrumors 68000

    nia820

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    #18
    Trump has shown the world what electing a far right leader looks like, and Europe is saying "HELL NO!". Dutch are smart people.

    Unfortunately I can't say the same for my fellow Americans.
     
  19. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #19
    It could be worse.....:D

    IMG_2012.JPG
     
  20. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #20
    Given it was treated as inevitable that Wilders would be the largest party to lose by such a margin shows Trumpism has taken a blow. Still interesting to see the far left have done rather well.
     
  21. Solomani, Mar 16, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017

    Solomani macrumors 68030

    Solomani

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  22. steve23094 macrumors 68000

    steve23094

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    #22
  23. jeremy h, Mar 16, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017

    jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #23
    I think the media concentrates on the noise rather than the signal. (I guess that's their job). The noise being at the medias obsession and predictions of odd individual politicians causing shock [insert prefix]xits singlehandedly and then declaring a dramatic result when the original shock they predicated doesn't happen.

    The signal though is the results and from what I'm seeing is that the populist far right of Wilders did actually gain, Rutte also held power (even though the VVD lost share) by moving right and after getting involved in a really odd political spat with Turkey. Importantly the centre left completely collapsed and the more fringe parties on the left and greens gained.

    There's quite a good graph on the telegraph report which you can animate between this election and the previous.

    Interestingly this is all against the background of the Netherlands being one of the Euro Zones real winners in recent years (reduced debt / big surplus and thriving economy).

    Perhaps this result does mean that things are claiming down but I suspect this has all got a long way to run yet. Also bear in mind Turkey are currently 'warehousing' some 2 million refugees under a deal with Europe.
     
  24. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #24
    Good.

    You know, my brother and I were discussing that very point on Monday night as we watched the news together.

    What is it with these uber-right guys and their weird bouffant hairstyles?


    Good post, - and some very good points made - but from what I can see it was Mr Erdogan (rather than the Dutch) who has picked this fight in order to win his referendum (on increasing the powers of the president while reducing those of the parliament) - a win that is by no means certain going by opinion polls in Turkey, hence the desire to appeal to the diaspora - in the hope of identifying and labelling the Dutch, Danes and others as 'enemies' all the better to generate support for his proposed changes.
     
  25. jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #25
    Sure, I'm not apportioning blame as to who started it etc. But in the past the Dutch have been very circumspect in their dealing with other nations under massive provocation etc (Airliner shoot down etc) Its interesting that this was seen as an issue to really get stuck into. Perhaps there's a tacit agreement between the two sides that this is an mutually beneficial election thing but things can develop an odd dynamic that hard to control.
     

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