Early ballots and voter-registration numbers show Democrats surging

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by MadeTheSwitch, Oct 21, 2016.

  1. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #1
    Bad news for Republicans. In multiple battleground states early voting and registration numbers are showing Democrats taking the lead. Republicans are doing better in Ohio and Iowa, but elsewhere? Not so much.

    In Florida:

    And

    http://www.politico.com/states/flor...-numbers-show-democrats-surging-in-fla-106392

    But also there are these numbers:

    image.jpeg


    image.jpeg

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/index.html
     
  2. Moyank24 macrumors 601

    Moyank24

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    #2
    Early voting starts Monday here in Texas, so it'll be interesting to see the early returns from another "red" state.
     
  3. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #3
    "CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and advocacy groups, academics and think tanks, to receive detailed early vote return information this year."
    :rolleyes:
     
  4. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #4
    Data is data. It doesn't matter who you partner with. Facts are stubborn things and numbers don't lie. :D
     
  5. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #5
    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
     
  6. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    #6
    The interpretation of the numbers lies.
     
  7. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #7
    Lots of numbers haven't even been recognized despite being hidden in plain sight.

    :D

    or maybe

    :(

    It depends on your point of view.
     
  8. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    #8
    There are no published ballot numbers from early voting. It's not legal to do so. These are exit poll numbers.

    I was asked to answer an exit poll yesterday when I voted. The pollster asked me if I was a registered democrat or registered republican. When I answered republican, she thanked me and walked away..

    Curious. She had dozens of questions on her form she apparently had her quota of republicans already.
     
  9. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #9
    What lies do you see here? By their own admission this "progressive advocacy" group stated that early voting was ahead for Republicans in Ohio and Iowa. I don't see a distortion of facts here.
     
  10. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    Quota being zero.:eek:
    --- Post Merged, Oct 21, 2016 ---
    Take them at their word for it, that is basically all they can say. That early voting is up, not who those votes were cast for.
     
  11. MadeTheSwitch, Oct 21, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2016

    MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #11
    Individual names? No. But they can know how many ballots requested by party there are. And how many new registrations for each party there are. And the majority of time the majority of people vote along party lines on their ballot. Granted, this isn't a normal election, but certain rules of gravity still apply.
     
  12. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #12
    If anyone asks, explain it to them with tact. Whether or not they understand no longer becomes your problem, unless you don't spell it out with enough detail. I know precisely what you mean, regardless of what the final tally is and I thought it was obvious, but whatever...
    --- Post Merged, Oct 21, 2016 ---
    Yup. Smells like teen bias.
     
  13. chabig macrumors 68040

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    #13
    Not a single vote count has been released, nor will they until Election Day. This is all speculation.
     
  14. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #14
    The new registration numbers are not speculation. Sure you can cross party lines when you vote in a general election but your motivation to register in a party in a presidential election is usually .... presidential.

    The other numbers are exit polls and can be biased six ways from Sunday but are usually constructed better than that. Still, they're polls and you can tell a fib to a pollster, yes.
     
  15. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    #15
    It's not the facts that are distorted, at least not necessarily. It's the meaning of the numbers that you have be careful with.
    You can measure a player with H or OPS. They're both right, and they don't lie about the facts, but H can tell you that a player is amazing while OPS says that he's just about average.
     
  16. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #16
    I think a lot of people just don't want to see the writing on the wall. Even today the surrogates were out there talking about how they are going to win, secret hidden votes, polling being wrong, etc etc. But they have internal polling...they know. They just aren't admitting it.

    You can also see the trend in money raised....Trump campaign is far far down and in how ads by various candidates are playing out where they are distancing from him and saying they will fight any president no matter who is in White House. Very conciliatory tone.
     
  17. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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  18. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #18
    LOL afraid they might change their minds?

    What is that, a blog? The bottom of it there looks like a variant of Hieveryone wrote it :rolleyes:

    In all seriousness, Florida will be interesting this year because of so many new Hispanic voters. But you never know, they might just be big fans of Rubio, and who knows which way they'd vote at the top of the ticket. otoh they might have signed up because insulted by The Donald. Then Rubio should wonder if he'll have traction down ballot?
     
  19. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #19
    It's rigged! Zombie voters! Dogs and Cats submitting votes! Anarchy!
     
  20. Marshall73 macrumors 65816

    Marshall73

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    #20
    Ultimately its bad news for Americans, regardless of who wins millions will have voted for Trump, who could take the country seriously after that.
     
  21. MadeTheSwitch thread starter macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #21
    So I looked up data from Florida and this is what they have posted so far:

    image.jpeg

    As you can see, more Democrats have requested vote by mail than Republicans. However I think neither side should get excited yet, because of the rather large numbers of no party affiliation. Who knows how they will vote.

    But let's say Florida (and Ohio) went to Trump. I gave NC to Clinton because it seems that is how it is polling but left the other battlegrounds blank. Here is what the map would look like:


    image.jpeg

    But what happens if we give Trump ALL of those toss up states? Trump still loses. So tell me why Republicans still think there is a path here???


    image.jpeg
     
  22. linuxcooldude macrumors 68020

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    #22
    Remember this:

    [​IMG]

    Its still too early.
     
  23. WarHeadz macrumors 6502a

    WarHeadz

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    #23
    Different situation. The few pollsters they had at the time stopped polling a few weeks before the election for some stupid reason. I challenge you to look at the electoral map and point out a possible path to victory for Trump.
     
  24. chown33 macrumors 604

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    #24
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-trump-probably-wont-be-the-next-dewey-defeats-truman/

    ...
    Truman’s upset win in 1948 wasn’t that big of an upset.

    The first big difference between 2016 and 1948: We have a lot more pollsters now. ...

    Second, it’s not like the polls were predicting a blowout in 1948. ... When you average all the pollsters in October 1948, Truman was down by 3.5 percentage points to Dewey. That’s half of Clinton’s current margin. ...

    Third, because most pollsters thought Dewey’s lead was safe, they stopped polling long before the election took place. All but the Survey Research Center stopped polling the race by Oct. 251 and all had started their final polls long before then. Had they kept polling, they might not have been caught flat-footed. The Survey Research Center’s polling indicated that undecided voters broke late for Truman. Although their monthlong poll overall had Dewey ahead, the trendline was in Truman’s direction.

    [Underlines added]​
     
  25. linuxcooldude macrumors 68020

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    #25
    I'm sure it was, but its a lesson learned not to get too ahead of yourself.
     

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