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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by AhmedFaisal, Aug 27, 2010.
I think the number of people who actually listen to economic pundits or are even aware of their existence is relatively tiny.
And I can appreciate your idealism, but shutting down media starts a dangerous path. And shutting down the stock market (when it happened post September 11) didn't really do much to boost the economy.
unlikely. The only number the people care about is unemployment which is CRAP right now. Hell people have figure out very quickly that u3 is quickly becoming a WORTHLESS number and U6 is what we really should be tracking. The economy is so bad that people are legitimately giving up looking for work.
I understand what you're getting at. Every time there's a good bit of news about the UK economy (such as today when the estimate of growth for the previous quarter was revised upwards) it is immediately followed by a bunch of pundits talking everything down again. Yeah we all know we're not out of the woods yet, but it seems at times as if there's a concerted effort going on to keep us all as depressed and worried as possible.
Most people are a paycheck or two from bankruptcy. Given the delicate nature of employment at the moment, its not likely that anything internal to the economy can help it. With nearly 1 in 10 at risk of defaulting on their mortgages and chronic unemployment at or near record levels, putting your hands over your ears and singing "La La La! I can't hear you!" is not really going to help much.
For the people who do have jobs a lot of them has have not had a real pay raise in 2-3 years. This means they have effectly had a pay cut for the past 2-3 years because inflation.
On top of that bonuses they are used to getting have been canceled which again is more lost income.
On top of all that their is fear and rumor of lay off in the company. Layoff have been shown to be counter productive time and time again. Work productively drops because employees start hording work to protect their job stop working as well together. This means less work per hour.
Also remember after layoffs employee trust in the employer drops like a rock. Which means they are not going to do ANYTHING that does not directly benefit them because they do not trust the company. Until people start seeing raises, bonuses and feel safe in their job things are not going to get better. My trust in companies in the future is fried. As I said before if it is better for me for the company to go bankrupt I sure as hell will let the company I work for go bankrupt. Why because they would drop me if it ment they could make an extra buck. In that world I will treat them as they treat me.
It is starting to show in the working world. The piss poor treatment from companies to their employees. now the employees are returning the favor.
When you leave home, write.
While the OP's suggestion is exaggerated somewhat, I do feel that the media has had a profound negative effect in shaping the recession. The more people are told that the economy is in bad shape, that investing is dangerous, that spending money is dangerous, that house prices are going to continue to fall, and that nobody else is hiring, simply works to encourage these beliefs among the general population. For the economy to turn around people need to spend money, companies need to hire people and potential home buyers must stop waiting for prices to fall further.
These are all things that people are holding out on right now because, in large part, they see through the newsmedia that nobody else is doing these things. In essence the media system that developed the American need for rapid consumption is now responsible for reframing our social comparison, for changing the lens through which we view the consumption of others. While the bar was previously high, and the general attitude towards consumption positive, the media has contributed to a change in our framework for understanding the consumption of our peers: now we see the ideal as being more frugal and compare ourselves on the basis of reducing consumption more than before. Case in point: the recent thread in Community Discussion about being frugal. As long as people are afraid to participate openly in the economy, its recovery will be stunted, because a full recovery will require full participation.
If the job you're in is stagnant because of your company's poor performance there's no point waiting around and hoping the axe doesn't fall on you. Keep improving your skills, keep competing, and keep pushing yourself. If it does get tougher in the job market it's going to be a real survival of the fittest contest. You need to ensure you're ready now if you want to be top of that pile. In the meantime if the worst doesn't happen your market value goes up, which should see your chances of more money increase. You can only gain by putting in the effort.
That says nothing about my point.
No pay raise for 2-3 years or worse a pay cut both really mean Pay cut. That means they will horde what little money they do have to get by on less.
This depression in my mind is opening people eyes to companies that the truth that they do not give a damn about their employees. I was taking a requires business class and I almost walked out on my teacher after she brag that at her company they were proud of the fact that they had reduced their staff by a fair amount. In how she talked it made me sick. She though of her employees as nothing more than a number and that is crap they were teaching and that was in the book.
And people wonder why their is no loyalty left in the workforce. That is a case and point. They teach the crap to treat employees like a number. Company show zero loyaty and respect to their employees and they are getting that in return.
But an economy that relies on consumption for 70% of its GDP is destined to fail. To continue propping up the Ponzi scheme is just postponing the inevitable. The economy needs to change before it can improve.
As we all know there are hundreds of millions of people in China and India who are now racing ahead in whatever profession they've chosen in exactly the way I've described. In the past we've been able to ignore their contribution but now as those countries continue to accelerate their economic growth they will soon be home to a couple of billion people all trying to outskill each other and compete. One third of the human race all tooling themselves up and quite happy to take your job if you can't be bothered.
We can all say things should be different to how they are, but to paraphrase Steve Jobs you have to skate to where the puck will be not where it is. Currently the puck is showing that Western countries have to become far more competitive skill wise if we're going to maintain anything like the standard of living we've become accustomed to. Nothing is going to be handed to us on a plate.
And my point is that even in tough economic times you can increase your income by finding a better job than the one you have. The chances of that massively increases if you improve what you can offer alternative employers.
Good luck with that belief.
In this economy the average time some one is unemployed is over 6 months right now and has no hope of dropping.
If you start looking guess who name goes to the top of the chopping block for the next round of lay offs.
You all missed the point that the wages are getting depressed accross entire industries so yes you could go to a new company but then you are the last in and first out if they have to do cuts and chances are you would not be getting a pay raise at it would be a lateral move.
Yeah, but on the plus side when 100 million dollars is only worth three and a half rupees thanks to their actions they'll be just as poor as everyone else won't they?
It's not luck, it's being prepared and putting the effort in.
What is the alternative? Increase domestic production? For whom to consume?
And you miss the key part about if you start looking your name goes to the top of the list for the next round of layoffs and you are not going to be looking on average for 6 months afterwards and that number can easily increase to longer if you were making more.
Also remember last in is often the first out. So you start working for a new company you were the last on in so chances are you will be the first one let go.
I know a lot of people in this area who have known that their job is going to be gone in a 2 months or so and they have known about it for over a year. They have been looking for new work for over a year with no luck.
I think right now time one can expect to look is about 2 months per 10k. So lets just go for 80k a year person who not had a pay raise. Chances are pretty good that person could easily look for over 12 months and still not find work.
I again point to the fact if you are looking hard it tends to get noticed so your name moves to the top of the list for layoffs. Right now companies just do not care as an employee is honest fairly easy to replace right now. The job market is over saturated with people looking for work.
50% production, 50% consumption. You can produce more than you consume but that consumption must be made up elsewhere which results in an unstable economy based on debt. US must also increase exports as domestic consumption is no longer sufficient.
Certainly this is an ideal we can set in the long term, however it's hard to know the reality of how our trade deficit has impacted our economic situation. There's little consensus on the overall, long term effects of a trade deficit. In the short term I still feel that the media has had a negative effect on public perceptions and therefore a chilling of any recovery that may be underway. We can insist that the US should be more rooted in production, but the reality is that we aren't, and that's not about to change.
Because when a company looks at who to lay off they always pick the obviously self-motivated and efficient ones don't they? As for this 6 months thing, that's the average figure. If you are skilled it's always much much less, so it's just another argument to keep yourself competitive.
As for those with 12 months notice who still don't get a new job, why aren't they doing something to improve their chances? In 12 months you could acquire all sorts of new skills and qualifications to add to your CV. 12 months warning of potential job loss is your cue to get off your arse and get your **** together. Otherwise you're just sat there waiting for the axe to fall and hoping for the best as I said in my earlier post.
Some people are just born to be serfs I guess.
Fixed that for you.
It takes being prepared for when luck breaks your way, IMO.
Why would you working 70-80 hours/week in the first place? How can it possibly be productive/produce a sensible work/life balance to work so much?
I have figured out when I read post Queso that they live in an idle world and have not ran into relatiy yet. They can believe what they want but when shown fact like average unemployed time in US is over 6 months right now and when you go to professional level jobs that 6 months it is commonly extended to 1 year or more. They can be great at their job but no work. Wages are crap unless you are at the very top and then they are just screwing over the little guy.
My eyes have been open by this mess. Company have long stop being loyal to their employees and will drop them to make an extra buck. Yet they wonder why employees are willing to jump ship so easily. Lets look back at the past few rescission. First place company turn to when money is getting tight is to lay people off. It should be the last place. That or the thing that is even sicker is they will do lay offs and then report record profits.
Or maybe for some of us this isn't the first recession, so we spent the boom time preparing for the next downturn and how we would best survive it. The first thing you do is learn to rely 100% on yourself for your career development and direction.
This entire thread now reminds me of that joke punchline. "I don't need to be faster than the bear. I just need to be faster than you." That's the job market these days. Just learn from this downturn and when it's over get ready for next time. Because there will be a next time.
D'oh! Of course it is. Thanks very much
I agree with this at least in regards to the stock market. Anyone who follows the market knows that it basically acts like a scared teenage girl a lot of the time. The cable news cycle contributes to this a fair amount. If you step back and take a wide look at television and how it affects the masses like cattle it preaches fear with breaks encouraging consumption. Fear and consumption keep a population in line.
Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason for the way markets and speculation work. For example one or two years ago, two arabs could have an argument over tea in the middle east and gas prices would spike and then so much so that we hit $4 plus a gallon. This year BP gushes millions of gallons into the gulf and gas prices, around me at least, barely made it above $2.76.