Economy crawls, raising recession fears

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by zimv20, Apr 27, 2007.

  1. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #1
    AP

     
  2. princealfie macrumors 68030

    princealfie

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    #2
    Ritteee....

    I doubt that report because apparently the oil execs don't think that the economy is slowing down for them any time soon! :rolleyes:
     
  3. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Stagflation. Just thinking about it gives me a serious case of the yips.
     
  4. Swarmlord macrumors 6502a

    Swarmlord

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    Too funny. Compared to the past few years of great growth, the past year isn't as good, therefore everything is going to hell in a handbasket. Meanwhile unemployment is low, inflation is low, the stockmarket hits a high and although housing has cooled off, homes are still selling.

    Hmm, looking at just a couple of the mutual funds I invest in they have been returning from 11% (the worst one) to 32% (the best one which is a utility fund).

    Yeah, I'll take this kind of lousy economy any day.

    Wait until the Dems take over in 2009 and the economy goes into a coma when they implement their tax increases. We'll see how the press spins that then.
     
  5. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #5
    Because it was in in such a coma the last time they were in charge? :rolleyes: Oh wait- I forgot, the only people who can do anything right are conservatives. Oops! Except run a war I suppose. :rolleyes:
     
  6. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    This is why we're doomed. Economic illiteracy, especially among the right. All this great economy the last few years (not so great if you look at those statistics under the surface - "lowish" unemployement, yet record numbers of people too far out to even try getting employed anymore, and so don't get counted as "unemployed statistics").

    The question these right wingnuts don't ask is HOW was this "growth" acheived? Oh, I see. Massive, massive, deficits, and insane levels of debt - piled up faster and higher than ever in history anywhere. Can't finance a ruinous war? Why, cut taxes, and borrow! Less revenues as a result of tax cuts means huge deficits and debts. And WHAT tax cuts - oh, the humanity... the worst targetted tax cuts ever. Ever.

    The bill for this madness has not come yet. But it will.

    Here's how the right operates. Imagine a totally irresponsible - criminally irresponsible uncle. He lives a lavish life-style, all finance with credit cards. He has no money to pay off the credit cards. However, he says: "look what a good life I'm leading! Isn't my lifestyle grand? Wow, am I clever!". Then, he decided that he's too much at work, so he'll cut his hours - his income plunges (tax cuts). Yet, he spends more than ever, tapping ever new credit cards. Then, when the vacation is over, and the owners come home they kick out the uncle, but have to deal with the financial mess (he borrowed against their house). They have to cut back on expenses, tighten the belt. The poor kids say: mean, nasty parents, no presents for X-mas, it was so much fun with our uncle, he always bought us toys!

    That's the story of the Republicans and Democrats. Republicans spent money they didn't have - borrowed and stole (one day the accounting gimmicks will be written about like we talk today about the Teapot Dome scandal). That financed a sense of "growth" while also financed the war (as an opportunity for their cronies to steal from the treasury). They said: "look how great the economy is doing" without saying that of course, any idiot can make the economy look good FOR A TIME when you go into insane deficit and debt spending which you won't be charged with repaying. Then the democrats will have to pick up the pieces when the bills start streaming in. They'll be forced to raise taxes - and be blamed for it. Once they clear up the debt, the Republicans can use that "tax raising" blame to get back into power and start stealing again - and so the cycle goes. We've seen that with Reagan who ran up huge debts, and finally, during Clinton's time we got out of routine deficit spending and actually started paying down the debt, in fact we had the greatest surplus in history. Then Bush and the "fiscally responsible conservatives" came to power - thieves and liars all. And we have the greatest debt in human history - all run up in record time.

    Unfortunately, this time there are no happy endings. Even the Democrats will not be able to pay down and repair what this crew caused. The extent of sheer theft, mismanagement, sweetheart deals and mindboggling irresponsibility is too great. We are talking tens of trillions of dollars.

    Oh yea, the profilgate Democrats, those tax raising lunatics, and the responsible, small goverment Republicans :rolleyes: ...

    And then of course the propaganda never stops: it's all the fault of Democrats, liberals, communists and we don't support the troops.
     
  7. zimv20 thread starter macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    dude, you've been on fire as of late. half the time, after reading your posts, i just shrug and say, "well, he's already said it."
     
  8. Music_Producer macrumors 68000

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    #8
    Oh God, not you again. I have yet to see you post something correct or knowledgeable on ANY topic. Just as long as you're getting paid, and your little funds are giving you a nice return, the economy is doing well?

    I don't even bother replying to your posts anymore.. there's not much you can do about someone being so completely ignorant and dumb. You should run for president, seriously - you'd probably win.
     
  9. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #9
    A recession would mean things are going well. Better than well, in fact. A recession would mean that inflation would be in it's last throes, and would be a sign of inflation's desperation.
     
  10. zimv20 thread starter macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #10
    yeah, i've been getting some decent returns, too (thanks to my financial advisor). however, it doesn't mean much when travel to, say, london.

    the dollar ain't what it used to be, not by a long shot.
     
  11. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    Aaah, see, you should have invested in some non-dollar denominated investments. I did this way back in 2000 - I was active on a finance site and had the same arguments with wingnuts. They thought the U.S. dollar would always be strong. I argued that it was vastly overvalued and that anyone with a brain would diversify away from it. When Bush was running for president the first time, I predicted that he would destroy the economy of this country, based solely on his program of massive ill-targetted tax cuts combined with lack of spending discipline - I knew, it would be one giant credit card spending party to make it all look good so they can retire with the money they stole, and before it all implodes. Of course I didn't dream at the time that they'd get involved in an insane war - which made it all 10 times worse. Anyhow, I knew the currency markets would not be fooled for long, and it was inevitable that the dollar would sink like a rock. I remember screaming about that opportunity when it was 1.25 Euros to the dollar. What a deal! I knew I could trust Bush to muck it all up! And here we are! Btw. the dollar has sunk to over 2 for the pound. Way to go, wing nuts!

    In any case, I did it not just because I was looking to make money in the currency markets, but because I travel a great deal to Europe. It's nice to have some insulation from the exchange pain :) Of course, the tax bite is still there :( , but there are no free lunches (unless you steal one, like the Republicans do).
     
  12. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    It's the "I'm all right, Jack" theory of economics at work. You know the tune: the definition of a recession is when you lose your job; the definition of a depression is when I lose my job.

    The fact is, wages have been stagnant for years, at least for everyone not in the highest income brackets. Wages are only just starting to show some improvements, though most wage earners probably aren't seeing much benefit, given the erosion of their spending power due to skyrocketing health care costs. As a business owner, I find that just about every extra dollar of revenue I can squeeze out goes straight into one kind of insurance or another, especially medical. But that doesn't show up in the labor statistics.

    When middle class people get through tapping out the equity in their homes, then I don't where they're going to go for money.
     
  13. zimv20 thread starter macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    swarmlord, i assume.
     
  14. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    ...and they'll bring a gun along :)

    Seriously, the disparity between the haves and have nots in this country is staggering and at an all-time high. That's how revolutions start - also known as wealth-redistribution :)

    Such disparities are tracked on indexes, and it's always a very negative sign for a society. Soon we'll approach the South American levels. And what that means is houses guarded with security personnel with machine guns - for the wealthy... while the poor roam outside looking for a chance to break in.

    The Republicans have always looked to increase these disparities as much as possible - and Bush is a champ at this. One day, all this will come calling home... there, at the door, with a gun in your face. Nice. Way to go, wingnuts!
     
  15. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Once upon a time, we called this process the Brazilification of the economy. Pretty soon, the Brazilians are going to start calling it the Americanization of the economy.
     
  16. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    Indeed. And what a shame. Once upon a time, we were the ideal to look up to. We had the biggest middle class ever in history (thanks to the consequences of the policies of that well-known communist and object of right-wing hatred, F.D. Roosevelt... today, the right has equal hatred for Bill Clinton, who also did more for f.ex. black middle class than any other president, and delivered sterling economic growth for all Americans).

    Today, the middle class has shrunk precipitously. That's a characteristic of those Latin American countries: tiny, tiny elite - and vast numbers of destitute. The numbers don't lie. The middle class in America shrank - with most moving to become the working poor. The rich have grown insanely more rich. There is still a middle class here - bigger than in Brazil. But we are moving in that direction - the wrong direction. And those like Swarmlord, who today are still comfortable, may end up in due time - unless the Democrats rescue him, which given the size of this mess is not likely - in poverty.

    The most frightening extremes of this disparity is seen in places like Haiti and in many African countries. After we overtake Brazil - hey, not to worry, we can catch up, and - gasp! - overtake Haiti! Way to go, wing nuts, way to go!
     
  17. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #17
    I've hollered more than once, the last couple of years or so, that we've been living in a dream world, here in the U.S. A Saturday night spree, if you will, and I don't see how you avoid Sunday Morning Coming Down.

    They've been printing paper like crazy, since before Bush ever showed up. The M3 growth is said to be around 10%, now, and is one reason for the high Dow #.

    Seems to me that a lot of big-ticket consumer stuff derives from all that re-fi on houses. When it's spent, what then?

    Low inflation? Duh? Well, yeah, when you omit housing, health costs, education costs, transportation and food. All that stuff that nobody uses. Oh, and anything that's based on corn, which has doubled to $4/bushel. Who likes Post Toasties or tortillas, anyhow?

    Post-Katrina, many refineries deferred their maintenance. Now, they're gonna have no choice but to shut down for that. We're low on inventories on gasoline, already, and the summer driving season is coming up soon. What's Ms. Connie Commuter gonna do when it's $4 a gallon? Or $5?

    And what happened to the old "ripple effect"? Is it no longer valid, that when a few million houses get repoed and all those realtors, lendors' staff, and homebuilders' laborers get laid off, that the decline in their spending won't matter?

    The Euro's already bumped a buck thirty-six; it's expected to hit $1.40 before too much longer. The Pound's at two bucks and the Loonie is looking good. Even the Mexican Peso is gaining against the dollar! (Not much, but some.)

    In constant dollar terms, what's the Dow, now? Maybe 9,000?

    Stagflation sounds about right to me...

    'Rat
     
  18. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    Well, Desertrat, maybe you're just old enough to remember what stagflation was all about :)?

    Mostly around here, I pound the right, for the basic crime of destroying this country. Doesn't mean the Democrats are all innocent. If you want to know all about stagflation, well, Jimmy Carter is your boy. Man, was that horrible... and those interest rates! 21% ooops! No thanks. Of course, Reagan came along and showed us that we can always borrow and force the other party to pay for it. Until now, when nobody has that kind of money and we're up the creek. Getting back to the Democrats, LBJ was also irresponsible - the ever present temptation to have a war and not demand fiscal sacrifices from your population... he tried to have guns and butter both - with sad consequences. He was a Democrat. That's how Democrats got their "tax and spend" reputation. Of course, Republicans are 1000 times worse these days, cause it's "spend, steal, and borrow" - but they don't pay the political price, because they borrow, and force the Democrats to pay back.
     
  19. obeygiant macrumors 68040

    obeygiant

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    US Commerce Department
     
  20. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    Yeah, LBJ's guns'n'butter policy sowed the seeds; Nixon's economic ignorance did a pretty good job of fertilizing. Carter's advisors were at best ill-chosen. Bert Lance was definitely in over his head. Reagan came in and allowed Volcker to regain control. That led to the 1981/1982 recession, of course, but it provided a desperately-needed correction.

    A problem we've added to, these last ten years or so, is that everybody's focussed on this "soft landing" thing. The longer you defer a correction, the harsher it will be when it does happen.

    The combination of too much fiat money, easy credit, and low interest rates fuelled this housing bubble. Leave the interest rates low and inflation gets worse--and the currency drops. Raise interest rates and the housing market gets clobbered even worse, and here comes a recession--although the currency gets stronger. But a stronger currency hurts exports.

    The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard rock.

    So are we.

    'Rat
     
  21. OldCorpse macrumors 65816

    OldCorpse

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    Yeah, 'rat, I agree, tough spot. I might argue about how good Reagan was for the economy - he did some great things (Volcker appointment was one of his best moves), but it was outweighed by the bad (the whole supply-side voodoo nonsense, ugh - I once debated Laffer - he of the Laffer curve fame - and made mince-meat out of him :)).

    Anyhow, this is beyond the scope of this thread, but I love economics... though not for no reason it's called the grim science :)
     
  22. SMM macrumors 65816

    SMM

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    #22
    Do you even THINK before you publish this rubbish? Or, do you just not know any better? My God man, wake up!

    Myth: Republicans are good for business.

    Fact: More small businesses fail during Republic leadership. Every significant economic recession (and the depression) came under Republican leadership.

    Fact: Republicans economics is focused on the preservation of wealth, not the health of business.

    Fact: Republicans spend as much, or even more than Democrats. They just do not pay for it. They Reagan, Bush, Bush administrations have run-up so much debt, it is completely unfathomable to the average American.

    Fact: Bush and his oil friends have raped the American people. American, British and Dutch oil companies formed OPEC as a way to deflect the blame for oil prices away from them. The majority of the world's oil is not controlled by OPEC. It is by their 'silent partners'. The economy should have taken a much bigger hit by the insane oil prices over the past few years. Many analysts are scratching their heads over this.

    Opinion: I recall a similar situation recently, and you should too. A few years ago, the Nasdaq was at levels that were not supported by the actual value of their companies. It was highly over-valued, and supported by speculated growth potential. I think Greenspan called it "irrational exuberance". Eventually, reality caught up, and the 'house of cards' collapsed. The high cost of energy could turn the markets on their heads. Your funds will not look so rosy then.
     
  23. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #23
    Sure, SMM, we're aware of the dot-com bubble and the $8 trillion loss on Nasdaq when it popped. AD 2000. But I'm not blaming Clinton for it.

    As to who controls the whole oil deal, I strongly recommend an old book from the 1970s, "The Seven Sisters". The narrative and explanations therein are quite illustrative as background for today. As you think about the whole situation, "short-term gain" and "foolish optimism" should replace "conspiracy". :D

    Back to recessions and such: It was around the middle of last year that Soros stated he expected a recession to begin in the US this year. I figure that anybody whose gross income is around a billion bucks a year ain't exactly all eat up with the stupids.

    And a fair number of us contrarians have been expecting it for more than a year. The issue is only of timing...

    'Rat
     
  24. Swarmlord macrumors 6502a

    Swarmlord

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    #24
    But you've got it all figured out. I guess I should rethink things now that I know when unemployment is low, inflation is low, stock market is at record levels that things are really bad.

    No wonder liberals all walk around looking like they are constipated. And don't bother to respond to my posts because what you have to offer is only opinion not backed up by facts. I wish I was as smart as you, but then I'd be miserable and broke. I like my life the way it is.
     
  25. Swarmlord macrumors 6502a

    Swarmlord

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    #25

    Thanks for all the "facts". I think those are called gross generalizations, but then what do I know?

    Insane oil prices my eye. You only wish that other commodities had their prices as locked down over the past 30 years as oil.
     

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