Estimates on HIV called too high

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by wdlove, Jun 20, 2004.

  1. wdlove macrumors P6


    Oct 20, 2002
    New data cut rates for many nations

    By John Donnelly, Globe Staff *|* June 20, 2004

    PRETORIA -- Estimates of the number of people with the AIDS virus have been dramatically overstated in many countries because of errors in statistical models and a possible undetected decline in the pandemic, according to new data and specialists on the disease.

    In many nations, analysts are cutting the estimates of HIV prevalence by half or more.

    Rwanda, for instance, a new United Nations estimate due out next month will put HIV prevalence at about 5 percent, according to Rwandan officials, down from more than 11 percent four years ago. In Haiti, a recent unpublished study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found HIV prevalence was less than 3 percent, compared with the UN's most recent estimate of 6 percent. And the numbers in India are coming under increasing scrutiny because surveys in AIDS hot spots are indicating a prevalence rate that is much lower than the national average.

    Even with lower estimates, health specialists agree that AIDS remains the most dangerous pandemic in the developing world. In particular, it threatens to ravage societies in southern Africa, and throughout the continent the disease has killed millions in the prime of their lives.
  2. rainman::|:| macrumors 603


    Feb 2, 2002
    it's important to properly estimate how many are infected at any time, as well as the rate of infection, to properly gauge anti-infection campaigns and medical science's advancements in different countries. And it's also heartening to hear that we have a chance at preventing a lot more HIV infections than we thought...

  3. Frohickey macrumors 6502a

    Feb 27, 2003
    Its too bad that AIDS is not as quick acting as Ebola.
    If it were, transmission would be quashed pretty quickly as the infected died fairly quick after getting the virus.
    If AIDS were to become airborne, WATCH OUT! :eek:
  4. mactastic macrumors 68040


    Apr 24, 2003

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