FiveThirtyEight.com official projection: Obama 349 /McCain 189

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by shecky, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. shecky Guest

    shecky

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    Obviously you're not a golfer.
  2. freeny macrumors 68020

    freeny

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    Location: Location:
    #2
  3. chrmjenkins macrumors 603

    chrmjenkins

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    #3
    ^ Indeed.
    It isn't over until the fat lady sings goshdarnnit golly gee whooper you betcha doncha know!
     
  4. Sdashiki macrumors 68040

    Sdashiki

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    #4
    And Fox News declares Obama the winner.

    Last time...shudder...thats all it took to start 8yrs of... :mad:
     
  5. themoonisdown09 macrumors 601

    themoonisdown09

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    #5
    I'm really curious how this will turn out. I've seen projections that favor both of them. I guess we won't really know anything until later on tonight.
     
  6. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #6
    electoral-vote.com has this to add. :

    "Finally McCain Gets a Break---

    John McCain has had a run of bad luck this year ranging from little public interest in foreign policy to the Wall St. meltdown just before the election. Finally, he is getting the ultimate gift a Republican could ask for: rain on election day. The forecast is rain and storm in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and low turnout always helps Republicans as the people most discouraged from standing in the rain for hours are low-income voters. Whether this will be enough to swing those states is another matter though. They could be close. But turnout is crucial to determining who wins."
     
  7. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    #7
    Interesting that their projection is a count that has practically no chance of actually happening. Most likely according to their site is 311 for Obama, followed by 353, 364, 338, and 291. All of them are still Obama wins!
     
  8. themoonisdown09 macrumors 601

    themoonisdown09

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    #8
    I voted for McCain, but I'm pretty sure that Obama will win.
     
  9. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #9
    Hmm... I'll believe it when I see it. 538 is still largely based on an average of polls, but when polls are wrong, they're all wrong by roughly the same amount. 538 may end up having polished a turd to absolute perfection...
     
  10. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    #10
    They're a little more sophisticated than that. They've accounted for many of the ways that polls tend to be wrong in their model -- for example, the race tends to tighten up on election day.

    They also are very good at figuring out the individual biases of different pollsters. I'll be very interested to see how well they do.
     
  11. 3rdpath macrumors 68000

    3rdpath

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    #11
    well according to karl rove this is how it's gonna be.

    love him or hate him, he knows his stuff...
     

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  12. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #12
    Didn't he get the 2006 elections completely wrong? :D


    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/karl_roves_math.php
     

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