Global Cooling around the corner?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by stubeeef, Sep 2, 2008.

  1. stubeeef macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #1
    While the mechanism for the recent temp rises are debateable, the fact is a bald sun> low or no sun spots> yields a very predictable result.

    http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+Century/article12823.htm

    I wonder what gore's position on bald suns.
     
  2. t0mat0 macrumors 603

    t0mat0

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    #2
    The solar argument is preetty vacous.

    "Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate."

    I thought Svensmark's work had been pretty widely peer review panned. Oh wait, it has been:
    http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/03/13/channel-4s-problem-with-science/

    How would a bit more cloud, but the same solar energy coming in affect global warming negatively? niet. Fairly rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations on the other hand...

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...imatology-tired-old-arguments-in-new-clothes/ also.

    or maybe http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/mar/13/science.media

    Why the sun couldn't have more than one cycle? The movement of the Earth has several.
     
  3. .Andy macrumors 68030

    .Andy

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    #3
    In-depth intellectual discussion from stubeeef right here.
     
  4. Queso macrumors G4

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    #4
    We've all but destroyed the marine ecosystem and are busy doing the same to forest regions across northern Asia and around the Equator, but luckily the convenient timing of low sunspot activity means we can ignore environmental issues for another decade :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    When is this stupid race of idiotic apes going to get it? Managing the environment is MUCH MUCH more than just "global warming"!!!

    **** me!! We're a bunch of twats, really we are.
     
  5. Jaffa Cake macrumors Core

    Jaffa Cake

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    #5
    Hopefully we'll see the construction and deployment of a giant space toupé to cover the baldness and solve this issue.

    Unfortunately, I think there's more chance of that happening than our politicians actually taking sensible action on the environment.
     
  6. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #6
    Buy shorts or long underwear.
    Bold is mine..
     
  7. Queso macrumors G4

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    #7
    All that says to me is that we've possibly been lucky with the timing. However, if CO2 levels really are already at record levels thanks to human activity and we do absolutely nothing to correct it, what happens when the Sun picks up again, as it most certainly will?
     
  8. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #8
    There is nothing positive that I am aware of in polution. There is nothing positive that I am aware of in wasting natural resources. While there are some causal links from Green House Gases to the rise in temperatures, there are other explanations as well. Is it one thing or another, is it a combination of catalysts...I just find that we often over look the weather machine that we all depend on more than anything, the SUN.
    NASA has been putting out material for years about increased solar activity but it doesn't get much play.
    It sounds like some of the scientists in the articles above have been spot on (pun intended) with their predictions>against a stream of pooh poohers.
    Time will tell, it maybe too early to sell that Vail Condo, or send the long johns to good will. Buy a warm coat this year, with energy supplies expensive, we could end up with a big BBbbbrrrr.
     
  9. EricNau Moderator emeritus

    EricNau

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    #9
    The sun goes through this cycle every 11 years... We just passed the period of least activity earlier this year, but feel free to resurrect this topic in five years if there still haven't been any sunspots.
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #10
    Well if we havent destoryed the forests already, they already look pretty damaged in Argentina, and from the map of the Argentina/Paraguay/Brazil region they seem to be the "good guys".

    The environment is serious.
     
  11. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #11
    Are you just ignoring Queso? Its not just global warming thats a problem here.
     
  12. paddy macrumors 6502a

    paddy

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  13. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #13
    Hasn't been through one of these cycles in 50-100 years (did you actually read the article?), so I don't think I will bother to resurrect this one at in 50+ years.
     
  14. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #14
    There seems to be a lot of inference in the article. A short-term "idling" of sunspots may or may not make a significant alteration in the Earth's climate because while the TSI doesn't change much with sun-spot activity. What's more interesting is how sunspots affect the magnetosphere, which helps to modulate climate.

    And furthermore, as this diagram from NASA suggests, this "idling" may not last more than a year.

    [​IMG]

    So, we may end up with a larger climate swing. In other words, rather than mitigating "global warming" it may actually amplify its affects.

    It's definitely weird and unsettling. It's also good to see how science works, someone used observation to make a prediction and then it turned out they were right. We learned something.
     
  15. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #15
    You are saying that talking about sun spot activity and solar output we have decided to pollute more? Were did you get that from? If we are about to enter into a very cold cycle, somebody ought to get ready cause a lot more folk ain't gonna get any food. The sun is the largest influence on our weather, bar none. Making this seem like an excuse to pollute just diverts the conversation away from some fundemental questions.
     
  16. Queso macrumors G4

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    #16
    The Sun has more than one solar cycle. The 11 year one is best known because it's so frequent and associated with Sunspots, but there are also cycles every 22, 87 and 210 years.
    No, I'm saying that we're already polluting at a level way more than the planet can balance, but that thanks to politicians and the media concentrating all the attention on the single "global warming" phrase any drop in temperature is going to put the brakes on governmental efforts to reduce pollution through educating the populace. Of course I have nothing yet to back that up, but I'll put money on the usual human stupidity and selfishness leading to an increase in pollution as people simply think it doesn't matter anymore should the temperature drop.
     
  17. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #17
    Correct, very good! Now how often have we a bald one for a month?

    some of the conversations on this for 3 or so years..
    stubeeef and MR solar threads
     
  18. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #18
    Well, the article provides some of the answer. We've been tracking sun spot activity since 1749. So, at least once every 259 years.


     

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  19. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #19
    Well reading the article it is once every 100 yrs, so this is not unprecidented just unusual.
     
  20. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #20
    Hey, you asked the question. ;)

    But, you're right, the lack of sunspots appears to be another of the sun's cycles and could result in a slight cooling. It's very interesting that something we often think of as a constant is actually this broiling, changing thing. It's an interesting subject.
     
  21. stubeeef thread starter macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #21
    So we shouldn't say anything ever about science that will effect government and societies need to go green? huh?
    Listen, we had better know what we are doing before we do it.
    There are people out there crying for tree farms, that when modeled short term make things better, but long term make them worse. who would have thought this?
    I will never advocate relaxing stances on pollution long term, I am saying that we better explore things, cause if we keeping looking for a right handed punch we may get a left upper hook, ie a year with very little food. You may have a year where clean air isn't nearly as important as some food.
    So, while I don't advocate messing with the sun, I do advocate forecasting and planning if needed.
    I thought I would ask too if there were some good scientist around here that might pile on.
    The link I had gave me these threads..
    one of them
     
  22. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #22
    And, if you haven't already heard me say it, I really dislike the term "global warming." I think the correct term should be Anthropogenic Climate Change. It's not that the Earth is getting hotter necessarily, but rather that human beings are altering the climate by dumping millions of tons of CO2 (and other gases) into the air. Furthermore, ACC also can more easily incorporate other problems such as the increasing Carbon Acid levels in the oceans, which I think is an issue that should scare people more than the possibility of changing hurricane activity.

    But, science should continue to understand how the sun affects our atmosphere and relates to our climate. If governments choose to misuse this information to ignore ACC that's a different problem.

    In this Stubeeef is correct.
     
  23. EricNau Moderator emeritus

    EricNau

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    #23
    For anyone still interested, the New England Skeptical Society addressed this topic in their weekly 5 minute podcast, the Skeptic's Guide 5x5 (#35), along with Dr. Pamela Gay from Astronomy Cast.


    In summary, she doesn't believe there's any reason to be concerned, not yet at least. At this point, there's no reason to believe the Sun is exhibiting any abnormal behavior.
     
  24. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #24
    I posted something in another thread awhile ago about the fact that while we had the hottest temps on record, we also had the coolest. As said, Global Climate Change, not just Global Warming. While this isn't exactly on topic, just figured I'd throw that out there if you're going to ruin the post with talk of what Gore would think when it actually doesn't have much to do with him nor his position(s).
     
  25. Scarlet Fever macrumors 68040

    Scarlet Fever

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    #25
    I don't care about global warming, climate change or sunspots. It's all too heavily debated, and no-one is really going to win.

    What I do care about it the unnecessary burning of crude oil. We are wasting this stuff at an increasing rate, and if we want to continue living in the manner we do, with our heavy reliance on plastics, we're going to have to stop burning it. If it slows the destruction of the ozone layer, that's just a bonus.
     

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