GM, Audi, Jaguar halt Russian sales amidst ruble's collapse

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Technarchy, Dec 21, 2014.

  1. Technarchy, Dec 21, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2014

    Technarchy macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    May 21, 2012
    #1
    Everyone remember Apple halting sales in Russia:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2014/12/16/apple-russia-ruble-fluctuations/

    Gets worse: http://www.autoblog.com/2014/12/19/gm-audi-jaguar-halt-russian-sales-amidst-rubles-collapse/

    Putin hasn't figured out that being a free nation with a global entangled economy ensures that no modern Russian can put on a Stalin costume and play Soviet. In addition Russia doesn't have diversified economy and these antics with oil and gas threats..."Necessity is the mother of invention", and now Russia is learning about fracking and how everyone is replaceable.
     
  2. iBlazed macrumors 68000

    iBlazed

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    #2
    I get a sick pleasure out of Russian misfortune.
     
  3. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #3
    I do not like Putin, but I wonder if this will get out of hand. Better the devil you know....
     
  4. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    Sep 9, 2010
    #4
    There are splits beginning to appear, small but they are there.
    Putin has for the moment united the Russians behind him, because no country on earth will let another country DICTATE who their leader will be.
    Russians who lived through the Yeltsin years never want to to go back to that chaos.

    Plus if Russia is hurting Ukraine is on life support, the EU will not support for ever a another SICK man of Europe.

    EU Divisions, are there.

    As long as causes for sanctions aren’t resolved, Germany sees no reason to cancel the penalties, government spokesman Christiane Wirtz said today in Berlin. German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said calls for harsher sanctions against Russia were “wrong” and it isn’t in Europe’s interest for Russia to slip into “economic chaos,” Tagesspiegel am Sonntag newspaper reported yesterday.

    French President Francois Hollande appealed to a summit of EU leaders last week to offer an early “de-escalation” to Russia to reward it for potential progress toward peace overtures. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected easing sanctions until a peace deal is secured.

    The conflict has hammered the economies of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine needs to expand its $17 billion International Monetary Fund-led bailout by about $15 billion, and failure to alter the situation may make default “inevitable,” Standard & Poor’s said Dec. 19, when it cut the country’s credit rating deeper into junk status.

    Bailout Help

    To unlock the next tranche of the bailout, Ukrainian lawmakers plan to approve a 2015 budget by the end of this week. The EU and the U.S. are discussing $12 billion to $15 billion in aid, EU Economy Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said at a Bloomberg Government event in Washington.

    While an IMF mission will return early next year, Ukraine may get 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in aid from the U.S., the EU, the IMF and Canada, EU President Donald Tusk said in an interview on Polish radio yesterday.

    The situation in Ukraine “requires immediate reaction, not next year when it may be too late,” Tusk said.


    Putin will be President this time next year.
     
  5. Peterkro, Dec 22, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2014

    Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #5
    I think most people don't know what's going on here.An attack on the Rouble,sure.There's a few things not being highlighted however,Russia has a big store of gold and dollars which it can use to defend the Rouble it also has very little in terms of debt plus its costs are in Roubles not Dollars.Also as the worlds biggest exporter of energy its relationship with China (the worlds biggest economy) is traded in Roubles/Yuan and is outside the Dollar pegging of energy supplies.
    The worst scenario and oil goes to $40 the Russian economy will shrink 5%,something they can ride out easily.
    Don't forget only around 15% of Russian GDP is energy they have a ******** of other industries with which a lower Rouble makes them very competitive in regards to world trade.
    The Rouble is free floating on the market and they have the resources to take down the £ and the € if it becomes necessary.
    By the way they spent less than $10billion to up the value of the Rouble to pre attack values they have $450billion if they want to use it.
     
  6. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #6
    Don't forget oil and gas account for 52% of Russia's federal budget revenues and over 70% of their total exports.

    Russia is a one-trick economic pony. Besides gas and oil, Russia only exports military hardware and mail-order brides. The crashing ruble is the result of American fracking ingenuity and there isn't a damn thing Putin can do about it.
     
  7. Technarchy thread starter macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    May 21, 2012
    #7
    I'm sure all those BMW and iPhone buyers will care. At least there is Skoda and Xiaomi...

    Ride it out with some of the largest wealth contraction seen in the 21st century? Is that meant to be a consolation to Russia's oligarchs who have transferred hundreds of billions outside of Russia's economy?

    That's wishful thinking given the UK and USA have massively diversified economies, and some of the strongest consumer spending in the world. Hurt the dollar and it wont affect our buying of iPhones one bit, but it will make China hate life.
     
  8. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #8
    Really it's the worlds number two (after the US) weapons exporters.Have a look at the stock values of the fracking companies.Russia can stop exports and still be a major economy.Something the US can't do it's internal market would collapse without exports.
     
  9. burgundyyears macrumors 6502

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    Sep 3, 2010
    #9
    Are you saying that the US economy is more dependent on hydrocarbon exports than the Russian economy? Do you have a reference for that?
     
  10. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #10
    Obviously not.
     
  11. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    Dornbirn (Austria)
    #11
    from the charts it looks like the were able to put the rubel in a stable position again.. at the moment he is back at the same value as on the 12.12. right before the crash on the 15.12. & 16.12.

    i bet they blew plenty of foreign reserves end of last week but i suspect many bigger players also took the chance to invest right after those hard crashes(the big rate hike taking effect). Oil recovered a little and just today they announce to bail out a smaller bank... so i think they might have just bought enough time to make it into the slower christmas time and make everbody calm down.

    in January it's going to get interesting again but i also suspect that a potential QE from the ECB could also prop up the ruble a little.
     
  12. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #12
    As I said they used less than $10 billion in foreign reserves to do that and they have much more behind them.
    Also a devalued Rouble is good thing for Russia not a bad thing.
     
  13. Technarchy thread starter macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    #13
  14. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #14
    keep in mind that even prior to the 15.12. Russia had already spent 80 billion dollars of foreign reserves _this year alone_ to prop up the Rubel.
    Which means that so far they have nearly spent 1/5 to 1/4 of their reserves.
    In September 2014 they had 409 billion left ;)

    Also on gold reserves: considering their size their reserves aren't actually that big.
    Russia has perhaps around 1200-1300 tons
    US ? 8000
    Germany & France and Italy combined have around 8000 tonnes
    International monetary fund ? 2.800 tons
    Netherlands & Belgium & Austria combined: 1100 tons
    Switzerland alone: 1000 tons.
    the european central bank: 500 tons

    I did the calculations last week: if they want to have the same per capita amount of gold like Austria they would have to buy ~300 tons of gold every year for around 10 years.
    For Switzerland like per capita level ? about 40 years of 300 tons.
     
  15. iBlazed, Dec 22, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2014

    iBlazed macrumors 68000

    iBlazed

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    #15
    But don't they still have that YotaPhone thing? And as we all know, Russia is home to one of the most prestigious car manufacturers in the world, Lada. Move over, Audi!

     
  16. TimelessOne macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2014
    #16
    not surprised by these action.
    BMW changed requirements on dealers that they must be paid with in 2 days of delivery AND it will be based on the currency value at that time. Instead of the normal 30+ days or in US I think it is 90 days.
     
  17. TPadden macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    #17
    That is a really BIG "?". The last audit of Fort Knox was in 1953, and even then no outside experts were permitted, leaving all kinds of room for conspiracy theorists to wonder ........
     
  18. Technarchy thread starter macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    #18

    The USA is also sitting on trillions of intellectual property that benefits the entire planet. Same can't be said for Russia, so something as archaic as the gold standard is far more pertinent to their economic survival.
     
  19. Technarchy thread starter macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    May 21, 2012
    #19
    Needless to say watching Rocky 4 fills me with great joy.

    Furthermore this reality check for Russia. Sure you can send tanks, but don't plan on buying iPhones and Audi's, and new Russia likes toys more than cold wars.
     
  20. turtle777 macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2004
    #20
    LOL, the irony is, so is the US. If it hadn't been for cheap energy (oil, gas) in the last century, the US would have never gotten to where it's at.

    Energy is the FUTURE.

    Russia has more than they need, the US is a still a net importer of energy, regardless of the shale "miracle".

    Take exactly one educated guess who is on more stable footing.

    -t

    ----------

    The gold the US used to have is mostly gone.

    All leased out, China, India and Russia have been acquiring the physical gold that on paper still belongs to the US.

    Look at Germany: wanted its gold back, but the US is only to able deliver it over the course of 10 years. Why ? Because it's not there.

    There's plenty of other evidence. Swiss refiners are getting tons of very old gold bars that must have come from deep deep down in government vaults. The Swiss are refining it to Kilo bars for the Chinese.

    -t
     
  21. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    UK
    #21
    The U.S.

    ----------

    If they are very old it's far more likely that they belonged to old aristocratic families like Happybunny's as they've been rich for far longer than the U.S. has.

    ----------

    Or far more likely it's for security reasons - http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/16/germany-gold-paris-new-york/1840731/
     
  22. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #22
    The United States by a long shot.
     
  23. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #23
    I would like to inform you I have no blue blood in my veins.

    In the Netherlands it’s the merchants and bankers who have always counted since the Republic 1581.
     
  24. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #24
    Perhaps, "aristocratic" is the wrong word and "old rich family" would be better :).
     
  25. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #25
    In many countries those are the aristocracy. Look at Wall Street.
     

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