Gun Control in Venezuela

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Plutonius, Aug 18, 2016.

  1. Plutonius macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #1
    What do you think of the newest plan to register bullets in Venezuela ?
     
  2. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #2
    It's a stunt by the Venezuelan government to distract the population while it uses them as forced labor in a desperate attempt to grow food and forestall a revolution.
     
  3. Plutonius thread starter macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #3
    They have to do something (I don't believe it's a stunt) but all the guns / ammo in the killings is being sold by police.
     
  4. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #4
    checking BG's of people who buy ammo here in CA, we are nearly as socialist as Venezuela
     
  5. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #5
    Yup. Meaningless blather from the socialist idiocracy. Ineptitude in action.

    jkcerda, California has long been the place of "You can't have/do that!" I first saw that back in the 1960s. "It ain't got better with age." The state motto should be, "We must repress you in order to make you free."
     
  6. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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  7. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #7
    It's the old quandary: guns or butter? Venezuela is well down the road to having neither.
     
  8. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #8
    they can start by jailing the cops that sell the guns.
    nice try, here

    Ni una pulgada mas.
     
  9. Plutonius thread starter macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #9
    Unfortunately, the military and police are the only ones holding the country back from total collapse.
     
  10. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #10
    that's a nice joke. same is said in Mexico where cops are the ones making citizens disappear and the military often escorts the drugs to the border.
     
  11. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #11
    In one form or another, nobody is ever truly free. America is a lot freer than other nations, though!
     
  12. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #12
    and we have all the permits to show it :p
     
  13. Plutonius thread starter macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #13
    Yep, it's a no win situation. You need the police and military to hold things together while the military and police are a major cause of the problems.
     
  14. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    #14
    When the government is the, "major cause of the problems," the time is right for the government to be replaced. Both of those countries would benefit, in the long run, from a revolution. Short term, it would be a bloody, awful conflict in which too many innocents would perish.
     
  15. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #15
    plenty of innocent are perishing in small batches as the drug lords & the GOVT sees fit.
     
  16. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #16
    yah please don't remind me the car inspection stick is expired and mechanic on vacation. thank god for back roads. at least i have the insurance paper in the glovebox and the right color reggie sticker, valid driver's license... did i leave anything out... sincerely, proud american citizen awaiting a "fixit ticket" any day now.

    Back to thread topic:

    Short term in Venezeula it's about trying to get 4 million voters to trigger a recall referendum.

    The revived gun control program will not likely distract Venezuelan voters from this concerted effort to achieve a recall vote on President Maduro. They already managed to pass the first step, getting way more than the required 1% of voters to sign petition to activate the next step. They got almost 2 million signatures. That next step needs gathering of 20% of electorate signatures, about 4 million, required to trigger the actual recall referendum.

    The problem is the government is trying to delay the start date for a four-week effort to collect those signatures, because of a legal provision that a recall election could be set any time within three months of achieving the recall trigger vote count.

    See if they have a recall before January 10 of 2017 and Maduro is removed then they have to call for fresh elections entirely.

    But if recall is held after the January date and Maduro is removed then Mr. Maduro's vice president replaces him for the rest of Maduro's term and so his government remain in power... or faces yet more explosive unrest, which comes around again to the thread topic and efforts to control guns and register ammo.

    So a peaceful Venezuelan future in the short term seems to hinge on whether the government will stop dragging its feet and allow the signature collection to begin soon and so fall within the window that permits fresh elections to be called, i.e. having the referendum on Maduro's removal occur early in January. His recall would require getting something near 8 million votes. Opposition leaders claim 10 million is doable and that "even a cat" would vote for the recall.

    Opposition leaders are calling for a mass rally in Caracas on September 1, and that may or may not be a peaceful event. Back in May when one of those leaders led a rally to pressure the government to accept the signatures collected for the first step of the recall effort, he was pepper sprayed by security forces. Now the stakes are higher for both sides. The OAS has gone on record urging Maduro to permit the referendum. His reaction, predictably enough, was to call the head of the OAS a traitor.

    These background links are to LA Times pieces from back in April, May, June when Maduro realized recall pressure was growing and he started making threats to opposition leaders

    U.S. nudges the Vatican, other allies to help rescue Venezuela

    http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-us-venezuela-20160601-snap-story.html


    Unrest continues to grip Venezuela as president threatens to make opposition-controlled legislature 'disappear'

    http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-venezuela-protest-20160518-snap-story.html


    Amid unrest, looting and electricity rationing, Venezuela president becomes recall target

    http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-venezuela-crisis-20160427-story.html



    These somewhat more current links to FT pieces are behind paywall you can reggie and read 10/mo free

    Prospect of recall vote against Maduro recedes in Venezuela

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0105ba40-5e72-11e6-a72a-bd4bf1198c63.html


    Pressure grows on Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d8a46f8-5885-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html


    Henrique Capriles rallies voter revolt in Venezuela

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d08ee38e-1e0a-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html

     
  17. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #17
    but the PSUV can't allow the recall vote to ever happen.....too many of its leaders would end up in jail for corruption if they did! They may bump Maduro to save themselves though, maybe the party will turn to General Padrino to "stabilize" the situation the situation for them
     
  18. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #18
    In May, a Guardian piece had this to say about the military's options..

    The army has long been the arbiter of power in Venezuela, where there have been five coups, or coup attempts, since 1940. Henrique Capriles, the opposition leader, says the time has come for the army to consider its position in the face of what he says is President Maduro’s disregard for the constitution. “You must decide whether you are with the constitution or Maduro,” he says.

    It is unlikely that the army would consider deserting Maduro. Both Chávez, a former commando, and Maduro have been careful to ensure that the military is heavily embedded in the project of Chavismo, and its profits. Dozens of high-ranking officers occupy senior positions in government ministries.
    Back in July five hundred women stormed across one of those borders to get basic supplies and food. The national guard formed up to prevent them crossing a bridge but the women overwhelmed them so they were let pass and nothing happened to them when they came back with their purchases.

    Now in August, apparently in a move to take some of the pressure off the government, Venezuela has resorted to officially reopening borders with Colombia (after closing them a year ago). It may keep the street protests down for now but the pressure to permit the second phase of the call for referendum will not go away.



    It has got pretty desperate for ordinary people to find what to eat or even get basics like soap and toilet paper. There is only so far the military can probably see letting things drift like that, even if Maduro has stuck military officers into senior cabinet posts. Sure those guys benefit from status quo but I should think they'd have to start talking to Maduro about being reasonable, allow the referendum buy some time. Peasants with pitchforks are past gathering in the wings, they're out there and will rally in Caracas a couple weeks.

    So I don't know. The military has particpated in those five coups in the past, so the opposition's appealing to them to consider Maduro vs. the consitution may in the end cause them to act, if only by leaning on Maduro rather than a full blown coup. They are after all embedded in the government. They must see their situation is deteriorating. They still have his ear so time to try to get him to shift gears the easy way.

    Maybe oil prices will rise enough to save Maduro, if he has the grace to let some of the money fall into the general economy. Weird how a few pieces I've read keep saying Maduro used to not be such a bully like now, threatening opposition with "disappearance" and so forth. Power sure does seem to corrupt character.


     
  19. stroked Suspended

    stroked

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    #19
    Buy a tractor.
     
  20. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #20
    In an interview a year or two ago Noam Chomsky said he thought the main reasons for the Venezuelan government's failures were massive corruption and incompetence......so for many associated with the government, including many in the military, it's not just an issue of continuing to benefit from the status quo, rather there's the real danger of facing criminal charges should power change hands.

    I think it's far more likely that the military will look for a solution that removes Maduro from the scene without allowing the opposition into power. The opposition would bring down everybody associated with the current government and not just Maduro......those peasants with pitchforks you mention might only provide the military with an excuse to step in to "restore order" (and arrest some more of the leaders of the opposition in the process).


    unfortunately for Maduro's future, soaring inflation and shortages were already a problem well before the drop in oil prices.....and prices probably can't rise fast enough or far enough to do him any good
     
  21. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #21
    If they want to go that way then the military in the cabinet should press Maduro to accept referendum but after point at which fresh elections can be callled upon his removal. That may be what is already the strategy.

    If they drag their feet long enough, then permit the vote-gathering to start, Madruo may be recalled sometime after mid January, but then the VP of his choice is who will assume power and the rest of the Maduro government remains intact until next regular election, assuming the army sides wtih this path. His term ends in 2019 so it would give him some time. For what, exactly, who knows. To try to suppress opposition by then. To try to put a floor under the economy somehow. He needs to play ball with the OAS but he's not a ball player. Maybe his VP would do better on behalf of his government, at least temperamentally.

    It's not so risky for Maduro's government that way even if he's recalled, unless some other faction in the army has other ideas, and can bring them to bear at a later time of their choosing. Of course Maduro may not want to give up his catbird seat in the first place.

    Somebody has to go, or something has to give, since clearly the country's in a bad way. Maduro's refusal to let his government stand without him at the top might be a pivot point for the army , since it's they who will have to deal with the already restive population.
     
  22. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #22
    Setting aside the question of what the military might or might not do....there are currently attempts being made by the PSUV to prevent a recall election from ever happening at all;

    link (FT report from July 26th)

    So no need for the military to get involved at all, just ban the opposition! :D

    In any event there's also a faction within the PSUV that would like to get rid of Maduro and replace him with one of their own, so the idea of Maduro being eased out of the picture is still a possibility
     
  23. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #23
    You guys have it all wrong. Michael Moore, Oliver Stone, Sean Penn and Danny Glover all praised this wonderful socialist system.

    Face the facts, socialism works, it's a great system, you just have to keep trying.

    You're a racist hater and should be publicly shamed for even suggesting that it's not doing great.

    Oh, wait, they're out of food and money? How in the world can a socialist system ever run out of food and money? Can't they just tax the rich some more?

    Quick, someone Call Michael Moore and have him fix it. He's made movies, he can fix anything. He even told us long ago about how great ObamaCare would be and ..... Oh wait, don't tell me that... ObamaCare isn't working? How can ObamaCare NOT be working? It's socialism, socialism always works.

    What in the world is going on here? How can a socialist program NOT work?

    Did someone get Michael Moore on the phone yet? Where is he?

    Someone call Obama, tell him ObamaCare isn't working, he'll fix it. Oh, wait... he's golfing... Ok, well if he's golfing then that's ok.

    Strange that all these big name supporters are nowhere to be found when their systems start falling apart.

    Let me go out on a limb here and take a really wild guess, the Dems are going to find something to blame the failure on and not consider that many the whole concept is flawed.

    <let's all sit back and wait for the Dems to show up and blame others>
     
  24. The-Real-Deal82 macrumors 603

    The-Real-Deal82

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    #24
    Yep a society without guns with a national health service will never work.
     
  25. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #25
    Heh, could be true at least the way Maduro has been running things --since nothing works any more-- yet what about the 500 women who finally stormed the bridge at border w/ Colombia in July?

    These women went past national guardsmen bearing guns, and from their forbidden shopping trip came back not with guns but with toilet paper, soap and foodstuffs. Who knows, they may have realized it's so much bother to eat guns never mind wipe one’s behind with them.

    Maybe Venezuela should let a woman take a shot at running the place. Not least to prove that Kirchner and Rousseff in nearby countries have been anomalies. Of course this hypothetical Venezuelan female prez might be corrupt too, plus take all the guns away... :D
     

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