Hillary Clinton borrows page from Rudy Guliani, will it work?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Cleverboy, Feb 10, 2008.

  1. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #1
    I was reading an article on the Telegraph website this evening, and I was very surprised to hear Clinton may be choosing to play a risky move and pin all her hopes on March victories... choosing to overlook smaller states in the process.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/11/wuspols111.xml
    I was actually surprised by how poorly this worked for Guliani when that played out in Florida. Now, Clinton is apparently trying the same tactic (with clearly competitive funding shortages being a factor). From the article, apparently, while Obama is hitting a string of LANDSLIDE victories, the U.S. Virgin Islands loss of ALL delegates was something of a shock to the Clinton campaign.

    ~ CB
     
  2. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #2
    Hmm. Very interesting situation.

    I have to concur with you that this is a desperation move on her part. Skipping the next few primary states, and relying on later votes in states where she leads, like Ohio? Umm, the former is going to undo the latter. Obama keeps up this momentum, and by the time Hillary gets to Ohio, it won't be nearly such a sure thing for her.

    (Not that I'm convinced it is anyway, but still....)

    That and the fact that her campaign manager is gone spells trouble for her.

    Maybe it's time to take up Rush Limbaugh on that fundraising suggestion.
     
  3. MacHipster macrumors 6502

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    #3
    If this is her new strategy, it's a foolish one. Obama swept Saturday's caucuses and primaries, won Sunday's caucus in Maine, and has a strong lead in the polls going into the Chesapeake Primaries on Tuesday. He clearly has the momentum and with the momentum comes more money and a greater chance of convincing the superdelegates to vote for him. I'd love to see Obama win as I believe he is more likely to move the country left than Clinton. This current conservative cycle is bound to end soon enough and I believe he has greater foresight than his competition.
     
  4. kainjow Moderator emeritus

    kainjow

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    #4
    If I was the Clinton campaign I wouldn't be surprised. I think I read Obama actually visited down there but Clinton didn't.

    It doesn't help her that Ohio's largest newspaper (Plain Dealer) endorsed Obama. Hopefully that helps out the undecided in my state :)
     
  5. zap2 macrumors 604

    zap2

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    #5
    Did it work for Rudy?


    But by all means, Hilary do it!
     
  6. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #6
    Well it worked so well for Rudy..... ;)

    As someone said, he swept the last 5 primaries, and he's likely to sweep the CD/VA/MD ones on Tuesday. 8 primaries won to her zero. She's desperate and hopefully will be out of it soon
     
  7. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #7
    She seems to think its a good strategy, but she's advertising in Wisconsin right now. She's doing something, but I'm wondering. Is a string of LANDSLIDES in any way inconsequential to a strong lead in an upcoming smatter of contests a month away?

    February 9th, 2008
    USVI - Obama 89.9% (WIN), Clinton 7.6% (LOSS) Won by 82.3%
    WA - Obama 68% (WIN), Clinton 31% (LOSS) Won by 37%
    NE - Obama 68% (WIN), Clinton 32% (LOSS) Won by 36%
    LA - Obama 57% (WIN), Clinton 36% (LOSS) Won by 21%

    February 10th, 2008
    ME - Obama 59% (WIN), Clinton 40%(LOSS) Won by 19%

    February 12th, 2008 - Potomac Primary* (still reporting)
    DC - Obama 76% (WIN), Clinton 24%(LOSS) Won by 52%
    MD - Obama 68% (WIN), Clinton 34%(LOSS) Won by 34%
    VA - Obama 63% (WIN), Clinton 36%(LOSS) Won by 27%

    February 19th, 2008
    HI
    WI

    February 21th, 2008 - Democratic DEBATE
    University of Texas DEBATE - Obama, Clinton


    March 4, 2008
    OH
    TX

    If Obama ends up getting 10 straight wins before Texas and Wisconsin... I'd be surprised if that in and of itself didn't have a hugely detrimental effect on Clinton's standing. If she then loses Texas OR Ohio, its going to be a mess. These are LANDSLIDES, and like Idaho, Maine and Virgina are beginning to show Obama eating into Clinton's gender and ethnic base.

    ~ CB
     
  8. MikeTheC Guest

    MikeTheC

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    #8
    Man, it's pretty amazing seeing Hillary actually getting spanked like that.

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Obama has always appeared to me to be the candidate with the more level head. Not that he's my guy or anything, but I think Hillary is just nutty.

    Oh well, we shall see. May well be things wouldn't be that much different this time around between having a Democrat or having a Republican in the White House.
     
  9. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #9
    She's going to need to win Texas and Ohio by HUGE margins for her to even have a chance in hell, and I don't see that happening. Obama's momentum is unstoppable, and he had a landslide victory in Virginia tonight, which from what I've heard was the only state Hillary might've had a shot at winning tonight. The exit polls from tonight indicate that middle age men and Latinos, both who were favoring Hillary before voted for Obama tonight. I think she's finished.
     
  10. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #10
    Don't count her out yet. She was supposed to be done after Ohio, she wasn't supposed to win New Hampshire, and she was supposed to be out after South Carolina. She's finally behind in delegates but it's still a close race. Of course if the Super Delegates start paying attention to the voters then his momentum will be unstopable. She currently leads by ~80 Super Delegates, while he has over 100 more pledged delegates, and probably more. But with Hawaii, Washington (primaries) and WI next week he has a chance to pull out further and maybe convince some Super Delegates to get off the fence or change their minds.
     
  11. swiftaw macrumors 603

    swiftaw

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    #11
    Maybe it's time for her to cry again, it worked in New Hampshire.
     
  12. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #12

    CNN and MSNBC actually have Obama in the delegate lead with superdelegates now
     
  13. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #13
    I think you meant Iowa not Ohio, but point taken. The problem with losing so many primaries in a row (and by large margins), even in smaller states, is that it gives your opponent an air of inevitability, and that's hard to beat. I think Clinton's only chance now is to go negative, and hope she can give the voters a case of cold feet.
     
  14. MikeTheC Guest

    MikeTheC

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    #14
    Now, what was that definition I once saw of insanity? Doing the same thing over again expecting a different result?

    Hillary's gotten spanked, hard. This race ain't over by a darn sight, not yet.
     
  15. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #15
    come on guys we are talking about the clinton machine here!
    they have a few tricks left up their sleeve, i promise.
    double sweeps, 7 states in a row is impressive, but just wait and see. hillary will pull out the big guns one way or another.
     
  16. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #16
    If she's going to win, it should be for legit reasons. If she can't win that way, she doesn't deserve it. Not that Obama would either, but more so than she would if he doesn't stoop to such levels.
     
  17. MacHipster macrumors 6502

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    #17
    I'm sure they do.

    It's not just the 8 losses in a row, it's the double to octuple margins in which she's lost. Her base is eroding and if she doesn't start winning by equal margins, her campaign is done. Unless she's playing the Huckabee game and waiting for a miracle.
     
  18. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

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    #18
    The time is now. This is what they need to do, so the fascinating thing will be what they will do to get there. With a debate coming up, and the unity of the Democratic party in potential peril, she can't really go too far negative. It's not an option. She has to find other things. Regarding issues of her income tax disclosure, she's already shot back about alleged closed door meetings between Obama and a nuclear power company. I think the huge double-digit losses don't look good at all. Were this the other way around, it would pretty much have sealed the nomination for her. Now Obama's officially in the lead by most everyone's counts.

    ~ CB
     
  19. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #19
    Obama has more delegates (pledged and overall), Clinton has more superdelegates. Obama just has enough extra pledged delegates to counter Clinton's superdelegate lead.

    link, cnn

    Clinton has 956 pledged and 234 superdelegates.
    Obama has 1059 pledged and 156 superdelegates.

    However with all the claims that it's the voters will that matters in tryring to get FL and MI counted winning the nomination off of the superdelegates does nothing but subvert the voter's will. Admittedly the superdelegates mean very little since they can change their minds at any time, but Clinton currently has more on her side, with a few more big primary losses that could flip in a heartbeat, no one wants to back the losing candidate.

    Yes, I did mean Iowa. I do believe that Obama has the momentum, and it will be a difficult battle for Clinton at this point but it's still going to be a tough fight and it's definitely not over yet. I would put my money on Obama to get the nomination at this point, but I would have also put my money on the Pats to win the Super Bowl. If Obama can pick off TX or OH, it will got a long way but until one of them has the 2025 needed every primary is going to matter.
     
  20. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #20
    Let's hope this is the beginning of the end of Hillary. We need a fresh start with new leadership in this country.
     
  21. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #21
    I completely agree with both sentiments.

    The most interesting and telling result of yesterday's primaries is that Clinton's stronghold among women appears to be eroding. As Obama is introduced to voters who didn't know him before, more and more seem to like what they see. This is why I believe that Clinton's only chance now is to go negative. I hope she doesn't do it, but you can bet that's one of the options the campaign is discussing.
     
  22. leekohler macrumors G5

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    #22
    She could, but it looks like fewer people are responding to that. This primary season should really be teaching some people lessons about what we want.
     
  23. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #23
    I'd like to think so, but I'm trying not to get too carried away with the idea. The sad reality is, even though most people say they don't like it, "going negative" still works.
     
  24. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    Only problem is... sometimes it "works", but just for the other guy. A lot of people have been changing their votes since South Carolina, and Bill Clinton has been changing his tact. They're looking at Super-Delegate losses if they begin to pour too much toxic waste, and both Clinton and Obama need to maintain relative unity for the Democratic party... so, options are much much harder than they would otherwise be.

    ~ CB
     
  25. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #25
    Again I'd like to think so, but the realistic side of me knows that back-to-the-wall politicians are about the most ruthless creatures known to mankind. The Clintons haven't come this far to give up. If they believe that going negative has a chance of salvaging her candidacy then they aren't going to worry very much about what anyone thinks.
     

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