Holy ****! Trump's poll numbers are in free-fall.

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Aug 4, 2016.

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  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    I would like to point out two things. First, there are still three months until the election, and anything can happen. Second, the article itself goes on to say that immediate post-convention numbers can be volatile.

    But I can't help thinking that all of Trump's blunders, plus the continual drip-drip-drip of Republicans defecting from his side, are mostly responsible. It is possible that Trump has reached a tipping point from which he cannot recover. Seriously, even if he suddenly became "presidential" this very moment...who'd believe it anymore?
     
  2. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #2

    538's Now Cast is the most damning; today it had Clinton as high as a 92% chance of winning the election if it were held today. Trump barely had 8, as Johnson carried 1.4%.

    Their Polls Aline cast, gives Trump a 20.5% chance, while Polls-Plus gives him a 25% chance.

    His mouth is bringing him down, to where Clinton pretty much needs to sit in her chair and say nothing. Trump is doing Clinton's work for her.

    BL.
     
  3. juanm, Aug 4, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016

    juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #3
    He never intended to win. But we should be careful, Trump is an outsider and polls are not reliable with him.
     
  4. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #4
    Heh heh... Check the "Similar Threads" at the bottom of this page and prepare to laugh.

    Goodbye. :D
     
  5. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #6
    Today is not the first day where people pondered if he really wanted to be in the race, or surprised how far he got and might be using means to try to get out of the race.
    --- Post Merged, Aug 4, 2016 ---
    Leading to "Clinton vs Johnson"?
     
  6. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    I've been hearing this more and more lately, though I still don't buy it. I just think he's so in love with himself he thinks we need him and he can't believe this is happening to him.

    No way to prove it one way or the other, though, so your guess is literally as good as mine. :D
     
  7. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #8

    Points of no return are always more fun to examine when they're viewed in a hypothetical model.

    Tthese honchos in the GOP are starting to realize they are REALLY coming up on having to fly the plane with current pilot and co-pilot, 10 or 11 days now as you said? -- but their ground ops guys are already acting like they're thinking of just shrugging and walking away. Some already phoning it in.

    Hmm. NowCast 92 today for HRC from 88 yesterday...

    LOL Trump. Remember gloved elevator operators: "Going down... 88th floor, sir... geting out?"

    This has to be why Priebus is so furious; the Trrump downdraft now has coattails to Senate races. Meanwhile she can be out there experimenting with what works for her, without so much media on it. Everyone watching Mr. Crash and Burn.

    Wonder how many people lie to pollsters, and do all polls have questions to help fish those out?
     
  8. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #9
    I think the polls showing a 15% lead are outliers. Still, poll after poll is showing that a corner has definitely been turned. Now I know this election itself is an odd one, but if this election is anything like other ones at all then the numbers will tighten as we get close to Election Day. Still, there sure are a lot of Republicans crossing over and putting country before party. The final numbers will be quite interesting.

    And yeah, I know it isn't scientific at all, but the polling here on this site is leading in Clinton's favor too. There is hope for sanity yet. Even in PRSI. :D
     
  9. Shirasaki macrumors 603

    Shirasaki

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    #10
    So Trump is a narcissist? Sounds legit. ;)
     
  10. jerwin macrumors 65816

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    #11
    from a 538 feature
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-donald-trump-blowing-it/

    Sort of hoping that Trump isn't replaced... and the Democrats will get their wave election.
     
  11. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    What I cannot understand is why the Republican Party didn't make a serious, concerted, coherent attempt to deal with this - individual - before they had their convention.
     
  12. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Because they aren't very competent either. Over and over they have demonstrated that.
     
  13. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #14
    Like Hillary did with Bernie?
     
  14. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #15
    Hell yes. Exactly like that.

    EDIT: well not how the DNC did. But the resst of it,yes.
     
  15. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #16
    Republicans allowed the people to choose between 16 candidates of all races,genders, and ideologies. Democrats rigged the election for one white rich woman against a self declared socialist and nearly failed.
     
  16. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    They did try. From faux news to many in the GOP top brass openly shunning him
     
  17. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #19
    At some point it becomes impossible to replace Trump. The RNC would have to convene to pick a new candidate, they'd have to get his name on the ballot in at least a large majority of the states, and so on. There's only three months left to do all that.

    And that's assuming Trump is willing to step aside.
     
  18. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    Because they have too many factions within the party none of which have a clear majority, and each one was fighting to take over the party so they weren't able to provide a unified opposition to Trump.
     
  19. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    And they went with the least qualified most crazy-uncle choice possible. Well played Republicans. Well played. Republicans are good at shooting themselves in the foot.
     
  20. td1439 macrumors 6502

    td1439

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    #22
    They tried during the convention, on day one. Trump's goons made sure the roll call vote didn't happen. Unfortunately, MSM was too busy clutching at pearls over Melania's speech, and that incident never really got much air time; nor did Steve King's white supremacist rant.
     
  21. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #23
    True, but if you read even just the part that the OP quoted you will see that there is some state by state breakdowns, and that doesn't look good for Trump.

    I do think that this poll is probably an outlier, but lets see how things go first.
     
  22. SusanK macrumors 68000

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    #25
    Like the DNC did with Bernie.
     
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