How much longer will Chavez last?


zap2

macrumors 604
Mar 8, 2005
7,242
1
Washington D.C
I have to question how much is political rhetoric and how much he'll actually do(clearly he has shown he is willing to nationalize industry)...but a pretty general "share info with local businesses" is rather vague.

Interested to see where it goes.
 

Dont Hurt Me

macrumors 603
Dec 21, 2002
6,056
6
Yahooville S.C.
He is moving toward a dictatorship, and typical trend for those in power wanting to keep it. He will have to be forced out. Same goes with the Iran president who didnt win the last election. These short little guys in power allways seem to be made of the same cloth of absolute power corrupts them everytime.
 

red42

macrumors regular
Jan 9, 2009
103
0
Hats off to him for trying to stop outside nations from raping Venezuela and its assets.
 

bemylover

macrumors regular
Jun 20, 2005
124
0
The country in South America is called Colombia. Columbia is in NYC, between W 114 and W 120 streets ;)

If the demand isn't met, he said: "I invite you to pack up your belongings and leave. I'll bring in the Russians, the Belorusians, the Chinese."
Just noticed this. If he makes people drive Russian cars, they will definitely revolt :D
 

Cave Man

macrumors 604
Original poster
Hats off to him for trying to stop outside nations from raping Venezuela and its assets.
It's a pretty easy equation. The companies will relocate elsewhere when the cost of doing business in Venezuela exceeds the generated revenue. Nationalizing corporations always leads to poor economies. This experiment has been done many times in the past. I'm sure if George Santayana were still around he'd be shaking his head in disbelief.

The country in South America is called Colombia. Columbia is in NYC, between W 114 and W 120 streets ;)
Got that fixed - thanks for the gentle heads-up. ;)
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
red42, in case you hadn't noticed, Chavez is the one who's busily engaged in raping Venezuela and its assets. The previous rapists were pikers by comparison. They didn't wreck the economy nor degrade the sources of the country's income; rather, they improved it.

Thanks to Chavez, food is rationed and investment capital is notable by its absence.

Yeah, hats off to him, if you call all that "good".

'Rat
 

red42

macrumors regular
Jan 9, 2009
103
0
red42, in case you hadn't noticed, Chavez is the one who's busily engaged in raping Venezuela and its assets. The previous rapists were pikers by comparison. They didn't wreck the economy nor degrade the sources of the country's income; rather, they improved it.

Thanks to Chavez, food is rationed and investment capital is notable by its absence.

Yeah, hats off to him, if you call all that "good".

'Rat
I think you Americans have a beef with him cos he's proactively dissing you guys all the time?
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
No, it's because he's wrecking a country. He is quite free to babble "dissing" all he wants. But what he's doing to the people he claims to love and cherish is badnasty.
 

SactoGuy18

macrumors 68030
Sep 11, 2006
2,737
242
Sacramento, CA USA
Even the normally Left-leaning Newsweek magazine is guessing that we could have a coup attempt in Venezuela some time in near future. The reason is simple: Hugo Chavez has literally run the country into the ground just like Robert Mugabe did to Zimbabwe.
 

obeygiant

macrumors 601
Jan 14, 2002
4,003
3,774
totally cool

http://www.calconco.net/CALCONCO/********DannyGloverAndChavezII.jpg

Remember when it was cool to support Chavez? Ah the good ol days. :D
 

GfPQqmcRKUvP

macrumors 68040
Sep 29, 2005
3,211
373
Terminus
How is George W doing thesedays? When is that byach going to the Hague for trial?
Want to keep on topic? I'll remind you of what you were doing: talking about a political situation you don't know anything about and trying to get a rise out of posters on the forum.

Carry on.


EDIT: I'll give the government another couple years before they're overthrown. Having inflation between 15-30% annually just isn't going to cut it. The price-fixing is causing food to be rationed, and their still-massive wealth disparity between the rich and poor obviously indicate Chavez' alleged goal of wealth redistribution is failing massively. All he can do is whip up anti-U.S. fervor. It doesn't change the fact that investors aren't willing to invest in their country and it will be hard to reverse that without a drastic economic system change that Chavez isn't willing to undertake.
 

Macky-Mac

macrumors 68030
May 18, 2004
2,589
1,142
I suspect Chavez will be around for quite awhile yet. Things may be a mess in venezuela, but Chavez has proven himself to be an adroit politician.

Somebody mentioned Robert Mugabe having run Zimbabwe into the ground, but he's still around despite doing that. He's been the head of goverment since the early 1980's and for all the disaster that exists in Zimbabwe, he's still in control.

Venezuela has had a democratic history going back to the middle of the last century, and while Chavez tried to end that with his coup attempt back in the 1990s, he has respected the results of elections since being elected....of course he's only had to deal with winning so far ;)
 

red42

macrumors regular
Jan 9, 2009
103
0
Want to keep on topic? I'll remind you of what you were doing: talking about a political situation you don't know anything about and trying to get a rise out of posters on the forum.

Carry on.
What is it with you Americans and Chavez. Just leave him alone. There are other nations much more messed up than Venezuela in Central and South America, I don't hear you babbling on about them? Could it be that he doesn't want to lick American's back side like other politicians do? Could it have something to do with the fact that Venezuela has oil and you lot are oil hungry mongers a la Iraq?
 

pilotError

macrumors 68020
Apr 12, 2006
2,240
4
Long Island
What is it with you Americans and Chavez. Just leave him alone. There are other nations much more messed up than Venezuela in Central and South America, I don't hear you babbling on about them? Could it be that he doesn't want to lick American's back side like other politicians do? Could it have something to do with the fact that Venezuela has oil and you lot are oil hungry mongers a la Iraq?
Yep that's it :rolleyes:

Like we didn't pay to build the entire industry and purchase the oil that came out of the ground...

I think that this little dictator wants to be a cultural icon now that Castro is on his death bed. Even the Russians avoid him! LOL
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
red42, I figure we ARE leaving him alone. After all, Citgo ships crude oil to Corpus Christi, Texas, where it's refined into gasoline and diesel to then be shipped back to Venezuela. Without us, he'd be hard put for gas & diesel. :D The silly twit ran off all his competent oil field help...

Funny-ironic: He needed the benefits of capitalism to get to Copenhagen to rail against capitalism.
 

Peterkro

macrumors 68020
Aug 17, 2004
2,143
1,361
Communard de Londres,Tiocfaidh ár lá
red42, I figure we ARE leaving him alone. After all, Citgo ships crude oil to Corpus Christi, Texas, where it's refined into gasoline and diesel to then be shipped back to Venezuela. Without us, he'd be hard put for gas & diesel. :D The silly twit ran off all his competent oil field help...

Funny-ironic: He needed the benefits of capitalism to get to Copenhagen to rail against capitalism.

Venezuela refines about 1.28 million barrels per day of crude(that is in Venezuela) much more than it needs domestically,about .96 is refined in the U.S. (Corpus Christi is only one of three sites)generally for sale to U.S. consumers, another .56 is refined in the Caribbean most of which goes to U.S. consumers and a further .29 in Europe. PdVSA and it's subsidiaries in the U.S. and other countries (including the U.K.) are doing fine.

Incidentally the U.S. is a large market for Venezuela not just because of proximity but because U.S. refineries were build to specialise in the type of crude common in Venezuela. In the future it may well be that crude will be shipped to Panama then by pipeline to the Pacific where it will be transported to China as a backhaul cargo by VLCC's which bring crude from the middle east to the U.S. thus making the selling of crude to China much more profitable,something the Venezuelan government is very keen on.
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
Venezuelan crude is the high-sulfur, sour stuff. The light, sweet crude is mostly played out. Kicking Exxon out of the country removed many of the people who understood the operational processes. How recent are your numbers?

The large oil reserves of the Orinoco Basin are even less desirable. Yes, there is discussion with China about sales; China is contracting for future oil supplies on a worldwide basis. As yet, China lacks the technology to refine the highly-sour crude but they'll undoubtedly buy that also.

In the FWIW department, a year or two back some number crunchers guesstimated that the rate of spending on public subsidy in Venezuela necessitated oil at $125/bbl for break-even...
 

Peterkro

macrumors 68020
Aug 17, 2004
2,143
1,361
Communard de Londres,Tiocfaidh ár lá
Venezuelan crude is the high-sulfur, sour stuff. The light, sweet crude is mostly played out. Kicking Exxon out of the country removed many of the people who understood the operational processes. How recent are your numbers?

The large oil reserves of the Orinoco Basin are even less desirable. Yes, there is discussion with China about sales; China is contracting for future oil supplies on a worldwide basis. As yet, China lacks the technology to refine the highly-sour crude but they'll undoubtedly buy that also.

In the FWIW department, a year or two back some number crunchers guesstimated that the rate of spending on public subsidy in Venezuela necessitated oil at $125/bbl for break-even...
The figures are the most recently available 2008.China has already agreed to build two refineries for Venezuelan crude one in each country,light sweet crude is becoming less and less available from all sources not just Venezuela.The present situation is such that the U.S. and Venezuela need each other.For the future Venezuela would rather its markets were diverse hence it's overture to China.I'd like to see the source for your assertion that $125/bbl is necessary for break even on oil prices.(and the one that say's petrol and diesel are exported back to Venezuela):

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Venezuela/Oil.html
 

Desertrat

macrumors newbie
Jul 4, 2003
2
706
Terlingua, Texas
The ship-back bit came from a guy I know in Corpus; just in passing in casual conversation, around the time that Exxon got kicked out. I tend to accept info from folks who lunch at the Petroleum Club. :)

The $125/bbl number was most likely from an Agora newsletter, talking about the budgets and incomes of the various oil-exporting countries. Most were said to be in the $35 to $75 range, with Venezuela up high at that time. This was maybe a year back, give or take.

Generally, I try to follow Matt Simmons' comments about trends--and others, more than the EIA numbers. Sometimes the latter are a tad "cooked", it appears, seeming to come to them from less-than-reliable sources. EIA probably does the best it can, given the propensity to overstate their reserves (e.g.) by the OPEC countries.

I'm sort of behind, right now. Been more focussed on all this Wall Street bailout, Treasury stuff, and gold prices. Me and the Mogambo Guru, I guess. :)