How Virginia goes, so goes the USA, forget Ohio

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 63dot, Nov 8, 2016.

  1. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #1
    Virginia, according to CNN, most closely resembles the USA in demographics with the same white, blue collar republican voters versus white, white collar democratic voters, two large groups.

    Where Ohio used to be a strong indicator of how the nation voted as a whole, changes in ratio away from the national average have made that state less reliable as to how others states may vote.

    Even back when it wasn't clear, this article deemed Virginia as the new Ohio.

    If Virginia falls to Clinton, then it's over with a popular vote in the USA which will be right around the same as Virginia. So if Virginia favors Clinton by 3.5% percent, then the USA will favor Clinton by around 3.5% percent.

    I don't know if this is true but CNN seems to think so. I have my doubts but we shall see, Virginia popular vote versus USA popular vote.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/44541/virginia-the-new-ohio-and-pennsylvania-the-new-pennsylvania
     
  2. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #2
    I can't wait to see the final results and look at the state and county demographics. One thing for sure, this isn't the low turnout election that people predicted it would be. People are coming out in droves.
     
  3. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #3
    Virginia is infected via contact dermatitis with DC and the Beltway.
     
  4. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #4
    The reason why CNN thinks this is because of:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Virginia,_2012
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

    The results of Virginia are literally the exact same results as the country.

    And pretty dang close in 2008.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Virginia,_2008
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
     
  5. WarHeadz macrumors 6502a

    WarHeadz

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    #5
    Just wait until we start evenly distributing newly naturalized Mexican American immigrants across the swing states before the 2020 election after we achieve open borders and taco stands on every corner!
     
  6. 63dot, Nov 8, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #6
    We will see if that Virginia phenomenon stays the same. Apparently fivethirtyeight shows a strong blue Virginia (85.5% percent chance of her winning that state, a few hours ago) and Clinton would probably have to get 320-330 electoral votes to have a "match". The same site shows her with USA election chance in the low 70s probability and 302 electoral votes.

    Yes, she will get Virginia but no she won't carry the USA by the same margin. It will be a win overall, yes, but not a huge landslide like when Obama got 365 electoral votes.
     
  7. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #7
    Its not about winning the state as you mentioned above. Its about the popular vote total of that state matching the popular vote total of the United States based on the demographic. The 2012 results were identical, Obama received 332 electoral votes. The popular vote percent could very well be the same this year (Virginia vs. United States) but Clinton still receive a lower electoral count. Popular vote does not correlate to electoral vote. Never has and never will.

    I'm trying to keep this as civil as possible. I don't want this to be another name-calling political thread. I'm just trying to clarify why CNN believes that the demographic of Virginia matches the country as a whole.
     
  8. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #8
    We all know that is the plan. Hence the reason why the Democrats don't want anything done with the border. On the other hand we have Republicans who don't want anything done because it provides cheap labor.
     
  9. BeefCake 15 macrumors 65816

    BeefCake 15

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    #9
    It's over, congrats president Clinton...wondering about how much 3rd party votes are captured.
     
  10. 63dot, Nov 8, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #10
    I totally agree with you on most of what you say.

    I think it's possible to get more popular votes but still lose but I don't think there are many simulations where that happens.

    We saw that happen in 2000 and I was pissed, LOL.

    We all saw this and of course we have all seen at least one instance where something equally unusual happened. I remember in grad school we were studying game theory and other things and my teacher was John Nash's student. At the time Nash was kind of a weirdo when my teacher studied under him but now Nash is considered mostly right.

    Well, as we were flipping coins and taking data on an exercise, flipping a nickel through the air onto a hard table, it landed right on its edge. What are the odds of that? I was told in 2013 to bet on the Boston Red Sox and it was a long shot for a whole host of reasons and a medium sized bet could have bought a house. Other outside bets, such as betting on Tampa Bay, were too scary for me but paid off for somebody. There are so many factors and it's not always the ones one thinks about that can have the predicted effect.
     
  11. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #11
    Yeah this time around it doesn't appear to be the case. It has only happened 4 times in history that the popular vote president lost. Jackson was the first. Happened 3 times in the 1800s, then hasn't happened since 1888 (Until Bush v. Gore).
     
  12. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #12
    I'm sorry, what party's leader refused to let an immigration bill that already passed the Senate even come up for a vote in the House?

    Edit: that wasn't fair, you stated that the Republican's don't want anything done as well.
     
  13. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

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    #13
    Umm. It's not even 2pm EST.
     
  14. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #14
    When Bush won in 2000, and from some of his unpopularity, I thought for sure my democrats would take it in 2004! What a headache.
     
  15. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #15
    Can we please try not to derail this thread. There can actually be a constructive and positive exchange in a political thread for once. This does not have to be partisan or divisive. We are merely only discussing facts of previous elections to see how it could show a pattern for the future.
     
  16. bradl macrumors 68040

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    #16

    You know, since you're essentially talking about bellwether here, let's get into it, shall we?

    From NPR over the weekend:

    http://www.npr.org/2016/11/06/50089...ost-likely-to-mirror-national-election-outcom

    Are you basically saying that the people of Virginia are neutered, sterile rams? :p

    BL.
     
  17. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #17
    And shockingly dems did even worse in 2004.
     
  18. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #18
    Don't forget free partial birth abortions for everyone.
     
  19. BeefCake 15 macrumors 65816

    BeefCake 15

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    #19
    The statistics are too obvious, I know tradition says we should be nervous and pretend to be surprised but...
     
  20. 63dot, Nov 8, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #20
    It's certainly not over until it's over.

    I voted Clinton but don't count my western vote out quiet yet. I remember standing in line, in California, and the news already declared Bill Clinton as winner and I was a working guy just trying to get in a vote after dinner. Even though I voted Clinton I was not happy with the news, just about every network, calling it over. How do you call it over when not even half the precincts of some states haven't reported yet? It's likely to be over for George HW Bush as the numbers indicated, but not legally over until the whole state was counted. So I felt like I was wasting my time in line that evening.

    Sure RCP, 270, and 538 all predicted a Hillary win and some of what I am watching on some quick after polls show Clinton is ahead and will likely win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida and probably get the election, but some on Fox say Trump can get Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada and that it certainly isn't over.

    Yes, it probably is but who knows how those three states out west will vote since they aren't as blue as California, Washington, and Oregon. They are purple.
    --- Post Merged, Nov 8, 2016 ---
    There's still a 28% percent chance according to fivethirtyeight though their model for the election gives Hillary 302 electoral votes. They are hinging on that Trump can do something nearly miraculous in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico so they have to give him some points. Early voting in some eastern states made it pretty clear and the huge Hispanic vote in Florida almost automatically means Trump is sunk. One conservative CNN commentator said, "Maybe they are republican Cubans". Hmm, I don't really think so. LOL.

    Of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, all are blue and fivethirty eight predicts two will go blue, maybe three thus not giving Hillary a larger number but 302 or 320-ish is still a fairly substantial win.

    fivethirty eight got 49 out of 50 states right in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states right in 2012 so I don't suspect their strong nod to Clinton is inaccurate.
     
  21. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

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    #21
    I would be po'ed in that case but eventually there is a time on election day when statistically it's impossible for the opponent to win.
     
  22. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #22
    I suspect though that if we see Virginia give it to Clinton by a few percentage points, that it will be over....assuming they are like 2008 and 2012.
     
  23. BeefCake 15 macrumors 65816

    BeefCake 15

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    #23
    Why do we care so much about popular vote statistics when most of electoral college (what really counts) is decided?
     
  24. Mlrollin91 macrumors G4

    Mlrollin91

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    #24
    I personally don't care about the Popular vote, but I find it interesting that the popular of Virginia was identical to the Popular of the United States in 2012. And almost the same in 2008. Its just an interesting pattern.
     
  25. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #25
    You got me. Nate Silver had it figured out several elections ago, but everyone pays attention to nationwide polls as if they meant something.

    I will miss Ohio being the bellwether state, but we had a great run.
     

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