If election were held today with frontrunners

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 63dot, Feb 22, 2016.

  1. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #1
    We still do not know who will get the nominations, but based on past months and projections, and IF things hold up for Trump and Clinton, things have looked and probably will look very good for the democrats.

    Unlike 2008 and 2012, this one won't even be close:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf

    That being said I think Kasich or Rubio would beat Clinton in a very close one.
     
  2. DUCKofD3ATH Suspended

    DUCKofD3ATH

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    #2
    Dream on! Democrat turnout has been way down in each of the primary states so far. Meanwhile, Republican turnout has hit records on par with those the Democrats saw when Obama was the nominee.

    You guys have a serious Enthusiasm Gap this time around.
     
  3. 63dot, Feb 23, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2016

    63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #3
    Duck, Agreed.

    If we had the same turnout as the GOP , Clinton would poll above all republicans, not just Cruz, Trump, and Carson.

    Because republicans are loyal to any GOP candidate, and because mods can handle Kasich and Rubio, the GOP consistently beats Clonton with those two.

    If GOP is smart a brokered convention with Koch bothers lead will propel Kasich or Rubio and White House goes GOP in January.

    It's all about if you want to win or stick it to the GOP establishment. Who do you want to take down, GOP establishment or democrats? Numbers (RCP average Fox follows) shows you can't do both. Remember GOP victories if possible are slim so no space to goof around with religion or against gay rights, but a need for republican to unite like a Reagan.

    As much as I don't agree with Rubio he can be your Reagan.
    --- Post Merged, Feb 23, 2016 ---
    For moderates out there who think President Rubio is a moderate, he has pointed out his Senate voting record is more conservative than Cruz.

    Fortunately or not, this is true and more than Trump or Cruz, only Rubio votes anti immigrant at the end of the day and is really the worst enemy of Hispanics. I hope Hispanics see this but Rubio is the most skilled liar in the GOP.

    The irony is that some polls show Rubio can take California with enough Hispanic vote. Short of that he can take New York according to some sunny day conservatives but either scenario is a GOP win.

    Forget Ohio or Florida, now it's about taking Texas and CA or Texas and NY and GOP can do this with Hispanic.
     
  4. Krandor macrumors 6502

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    #4
    If it stays a 3 person race, I don't think anybody gets enough votes to win the nomination on the first ballot and who knows what happens then.
     
  5. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #5
    This can be an interesting thing.

    While I am a Sanders supporter and dislike Clinton very much I see the writing on the wall, if you know statistics on any level, shows that this could be over for Sanders this time next month.

    I know that the GOP has this in the bag if they play it smart with Kasich or Rubio. Real Clear Politics, who takes polls from right, left, and center, and the primary resource for Fox and CNN has been watching the big election head to head matchups of every candidate.

    While Bush and Walker could have actually won it if they stayed in long term, Kasich and Rubio are still on top of Clinton in this late date heading into spring. The race enters a whole new chapter once it's the two parties with their nominees. But in hypothetical matchups, Kasich and Rubio are presidents waiting to happen.

    I don't know if the GOP sounds stupid or are stupid, but any GOP strategist knows they could never win with a Buchanan, Jindal, or David Duke, no matter how much the far right loves them, and run guys like Bush, McCain, and Romney knowing it's OK to be conservative but it's more important to capture on the fence moderates and independents.

    Let's see how the GOP plays the 2016 cycle. How much do they want the White House? The left knows that while voter turnout is often low, like Duck mentioned, there are still enough democrats like me who may hate Clinton but will vote for her and the platform over a "nice guy" like Kasich or Rubio who imho have a flawed far right platform. It's the platform folks and in the end the president does not control spending or laws and it's the direction of the party because it takes more than one to tango. It's easy to blame Obama but he's in a party and can't unilaterally "make" laws and "come up" with spending.
     
  6. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #6
    If that happens then I'd bet someone not currently running, possibly Paul Ryan if they can convince him, will get the nomination with one of the top three getting the VP slot or at least getting to choose who is the VP.
     
  7. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #7
    and then Trump, with the most but not enough popular votes and delegates, storms off in a snit to run as an independent which bleeds away just enough support from the GOP leaving Hilary the winner in november? :eek:
     
  8. logicstudiouser macrumors 6502

    logicstudiouser

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    #8
    On the republican side, I do think Kasich is the best choice, but I don't think he will make it.
    With the democrats, I think they will have a big problem if Hillary becomes the nominee, especially if superdelegates end up being the deciding factor. If you remove the superdelegates on the democratic side, Hillary and Bernie are so close - it is likely there will be many more close margin states where the delegates are split almost evenly, which would make a Sanders loss sting that much more for his supporters. As a result, I think the majority of Sanders supporters will either not vote or go to Trump rather than vote for Hillary. The other thing to remember is that Sanders is pulling in lots of independents. Many independents are boiling it down to Sanders or Trump (even though they couldn't be more opposite politically) because they are the least influenced by Washington.
     
  9. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #9
    The problem with Trump is that although he started well with independents of all stripes, including me, his true colors came out and he alienated just about everybody. Trump is the only one on the GOP side who is a sure loser on the GOP side. Where Cruz looked bad and all alone, he now looks pretty good compared to Trump. Cruz says stuff but not bleeding from wherever or dipping bullets in pig's blood. Trump's over the top rhetoric only excites some conservatives but alienates everybody else. He's a lot like David Duke where within a party he's OK but in the larger pool of voters, he's a non-starter. Even David Duke looks better than Trump.
     
  10. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    That would be a definite possibility, the GOP leadership would have to offer some major concessions to Trump if it comes down to a brokered convention and they don't want him to run as an independent.
     
  11. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #11
    Folks, this is what he came in for...leverage. Eventually leverage = cash and/or favoritism.

    Who here thinks a man who makes roughly what the president does in a year but in just three or four working Trump days is willing to seriously sit out of the Trump empire for four years? Trump's empire is much bigger than the man and there's too much at state which is between 4-10 billion dollars.

    If Trump gets something monetarily out of this, or reduced taxes, or contracts, we will never know the massive extent of it until long after he is dead. Ross Perot's company had quite a bit of work after 1992 and this was no coincidence. When in doubt, follow the money.
     
  12. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #12
    Hillary would bury Trump in a historic landslide. However, I still believe at the end Rubio will be the GOP nominee and Nikki Haley will be his Veep.
     
  13. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #13
    Rubio wants to offshore more jobs when we don't need more of that, especially with all the companies having the revelation they had their employees train their own H1B replacements.

    Kasich has always seemed to come across more centrist...
     

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