If we have a huge retail day in the US the day after Thanksgiving...

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 63dot, Nov 28, 2008.

  1. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #1
    ...will it be a good sign for the incoming Obama administration?

    Can it lead to a Dow Jones 10,000 point stock market?

    And will it restore confidence back into our economy?

    Somehow, I think economic analysts will really be watching this day very closely.
     
  2. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

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    #2
    Not going to happen. At best it will not be as bad as they are predicting. This Holiday season is going to be a bad one. Question is just how bad.
     
  3. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #3
    I live close to a huge mall and shopping area (name a store and its there). Parking lots were not packed.
     
  4. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #4
    Hate to be pessimistic, and I'm optimistic on us climbing out of this crisis overall, but srsly. I don't think any sensible person is predicting a good retail day for Black Friday or a good retail holiday season in general.

    On the other hand, I will note that the Dow had it's best two day gain since 1987 in the week leading up to today. I don't know, however, that this is a good thing. Market volatility is definitely a part of the overall recipe for disaster that created this mess, once you look beyond the subprime issue itself.

    Slow, steady recovery. This is a turtle race, not a rabbit one.
     
  5. GoCubsGo macrumors Nehalem

    GoCubsGo

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    #5
    I just drove by the largest (or at least most visited) mall in Orange County and the parking lots were slightly more bare than I recall. I attribute much of this to online shopping deals that can be had but I don't rule out people clutching their wallets a bit more either.
     
  6. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

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    #6
    Oh I agree we are going to get out of it like the rest of the world is. The growth will long term will continue to match its historical numbers.

    Just this is part of the cycle and it is bad one. Right now it is just hunker down and weather the storm.
     
  7. LumbermanSVO macrumors 65816

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    #7
    I just got a message on through the on-board computer on my semi-truck. The company is expecting a much slower holiday season and they are expecting Q1 '09 to be way slower than normal.

    They are also trimming the fleet by laying off the poor performers and those with bad safety records.
     
  8. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #8
    Just when fuel costs had finally fallen, too! :( Hope that the effect on you is minimal.
     
  9. LumbermanSVO macrumors 65816

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    #9
    I should be ok for this round, they are focusing on company drivers right now. I am not a company driver anymore, I drive a truck that is leased to them. Technically I am employed by a brewery, not a trucking company :)
     
  10. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #10
    thanks for the early reports since i am on the west coast and many have not hit the malls yet, and i live in a very sparsely populated area so the recession hit us harder than most

    while people in san jose/san francisco complain about losing their 100K jobs a year, we have similar jobs with similar training and we are being axed from 40K jobs and we don't have their nestegg/investments but we have the same priced homes/rentals

    slow recovery is probably most likely

    the last time we had a bush in office, we had a proven recession from every point of view, even GOP think tanks, and the democrats made some radical changes and we climbed out rather quickly and sustained a growth, actually the longest in american history

    that type of miracle recovery only happens once every 200 years so it's a lot to expect again just 18 years later, i know, but you can't fault me for hoping

    UPDATE: So I just got back from the main mall of our town of 30,000 and it was packed. The city downtown shopping region of the neighboring town of 1,800 people was packed.

    The town with three much larger malls which serves 30,000 people directly, and three times that indirectly to the north of us were packed.

    What will be key is if the town 30 minutes away that has half a dozen malls that serve 140,000 people were packed. If all malls were packed, it only means 300,000 people in total have malls that did well on black Friday. Not conclusive proof of climbing out of a recession locally, but not a bad sign, either.
     
  11. Unspeaked macrumors 68020

    Unspeaked

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    #11
    Black Friday sales were up 3% from last year, but the market still tanked.

    (The outlook for the remainder of the holiday shopping season is very poor.)

    So to answer the OP, it looks like:

    ...will it be a good sign for the incoming Obama administration?

    No.

    Can it lead to a Dow Jones 10,000 point stock market?

    No.

    And will it restore confidence back into our economy?

    No.

    :(
     
  12. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #12
    Interesting... the violence (which is being discussed in another thread already) aside, I guess the rest of it is still surprisingly positive. I would still be shocked if it's a good Winter for retail, but 3% is nothing to be ashamed of.
     
  13. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #13
    We won't see the Dow hit 10,000 for a few years. It was over valued when it was that high.
     
  14. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #14
    From this morning's "Rude Awakening":

    “Americans, Your Retailers Need You!”

    "We can just imagine the signs hung in the poor shopkeeper’s window, adorned with last year’s decorations (he can’t afford new ones) and complete with a finger-pointing Uncle Sam, reminding customers of their duty to the great consumer nation.

    There’s nothing quite as patriotic as splashing out on a big ticket item you don’t really need with money you don’t really have in order to jump start your flailing economy, right?

    Well, no...but never mind all that, it’s the holiday season!

    Across the Empire, 172 million shoppers hit the stores (both actual and virtual) over the four-day weekend, up from 147 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation. Figures released by ShopperTrak RCT Corp. revealed that day-after-Thanksgiving retail sales alone rose 3% over last year to $10.6 billion. That’s a lot of big screen TVs and Abercrombie & Fitch sweaters..."
    _____________________



    I've read that the numbers of shoppers were in response to deeper discounts than in the past. So, doesn't that mean less profit per sale? If what you want to do is clear the shelves, fine. If you're trying to make money, yuck.

    It's reported in the financial news that the national average savings rate has gone from 0% to 10% in just these last few months. That's pushing a trillion dollars, held out of our consumer economy.

    Sorta sounds like the Black Friday flood might well be followed by a trickle...

    'Rat
     
  15. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #15
    Dollars, per the link in my last post. Specifically:

    2008 = $10.6B sales, up 3% YoY, $372.57 per customer, est. 172M customers*
    2007 = ~$10.3B, up 8% YoY, $347.55 per customer, est 147M customers

    *customer estimates = online + in-store
     
  16. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #16
    I was downtown on Saturday and it was a madhouse! I heard Friday was an absolute nightmare crowd-wise down here, so I'd say it definitely looked better than last year.
     
  17. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #17
    This reminds me that I want to go to Marshall Field's (Oh, yes, you heard what I said ;) ) to get one more Spring tie. Looks like violets and purples are the it colors. :)
     
  18. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #18
    That is one day, they need to sustain it for 3 more weeks. If the stores are offering big sales to get the people in that is going to cut into the bottom line.
     
  19. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #19
    Good! Because there is no such thing as Macy's. :) We were in J Crew yesterday and the colors this season are awesome! They had a lot of great shirts, but I'm gonna wait for a better sale. They had serious slut potential. :D I think I could do some major damage dressed in a nice purple.
     
  20. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    So last night on CNN I saw a wrapup show about Friday through Sunday. It wasn't as slow as some people thought it would be, but it wasnt' gangbusters. Friday was far beyond what people expected nationwide, but Saturday was a real letdown to dampen the whole thing. Overall, it was so so. I was hoping for a breaking out of the recession we have been in for a year now, officially, but we will have to see how this entire season does overall. It's not likely, from the past weekend, that it's going to be spectacular.

    At a certain point, prices are going to get so low on products, and housing, that the bargain hunters are going to come out, but only when they think things have hit rock bottom.

    We may still have to stay in this recession for some time and that bums me out. At least we have hope come January in the White House.

    This is so reminiscent of this time in 1992 when we had a Bush in the White House, and there was a recession caused by voodoo trickle down economics, and a young Democrat came in and turned things around. If Obama can do the same, the GOP will no longer be seen as the party that takes care of the economy and business.

    Goldwater and his cronies, to their credit, built up such a legend that the GOP was about the economy, and that the democrat's were useless mad spenders. It's funny that since Reagan's second term, the GOP has been the tax and spend wasteful ones with our tax money. :)
     
  21. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #21
    Sorry man, but housing has a long way to drop before us bargain hunters shop for that. It's so over-inflated that it's going to have to drop a lot. Housing is still not affordable at all.
     
  22. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #22
    The over inflation of housing started in late-1945 when the troops came home from the war, and outpaced wages/salaries thus starting a bubble. And a few years ago, we saw that gigantic bubble pop.

    I agree with you that housing will drop a long ways more. Our house has a real value 1/3 of what it had during the height. At least it is very small and still liquid. But huge houses that went for millions and got reduced by half are illiquid and have a market valuation of $0 dollars. I didn't understand why very large houses could have a zero value but that crazy Cramer guy on CNN actually explained the concept pretty well. If you have a 3 million dollar house and you list it a 1.5 mil. and people laugh until they pee on themselves, then that house is illiquid and has a zero market value.

    I remember right before the bubble popped and Suze Orman said invest in yourself, go for happiness, get a college education, and watch out for the overinflated real estate market. Some called her alarmist, but she was right and accurate about the timing of the bubble burst.

    Right before the stock market crash in '89, a couple of young brothers (virtually kids at the time) starting to make predictions, talked about the danger in the market. Few listened and now they are the "Motley Fools", as a financial company and brand name that came out a few years later, who nobody consider foolish. ;)
     
  23. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #23
    That depends on where you are looking.

    The bottom-feeders are already out in droves, but many buyers aren't staying away so much because prices are too high but because the banks are hardly lending, and not many want to buy when prices are still falling.

    The overall trend in housing prices is upwards. It has been for a long, long time.
     
  24. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #24
    I'm sorry, but it was just common sense that told me the housing market was over-inflated. I kept asking myself who was able to afford all these $350,000 condos in my city. The answer was- no one. People were gambling that they would go up to $475,000 and then they could sell! I'm not kidding! I had a banker friend actually try to tell me this. I told him not to ever introduce me to anyone stupid enough to buy into that line of thinking. I mean, come on! There's only so many people who can afford that.

    Starting to drop pretty fast here lately. There are entire empty condo buildings everywhere.
     
  25. 63dot thread starter macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #25
    My friend from school bought her condo for $350K, in a medium sized city, and at the height of over pricing, it's valuation went to $450K, and today, it's worth $100K and she still has $100K left to pay on it. She is pissed.

    She is no dummy and had been a real estate agent for many years. She didn't predict this type of downturn.

    I remember real estate people who thought San Diego, SF, and LA condos, small, in unremarkable neighborhoods, would go into the million dollar market. This happened at one time in Hong Kong but that economy, the buyers, and the philosophy is completely different.

    Paris Hilton's 10 million dollar mansion listed for just over 3 mil. Wouldn't you think there would at least be one crazed fan, who is rich, let's say from Japan, who would pay more? Real estate times are certainly hard.
     

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