Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mikeyredk, Dec 27, 2011.

  1. mikeyredk macrumors 65816

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    #1
    NYT

    For the Fox Folks ;)

    Your thoughts on this Move? Will it work? Its going to be hard to swallow globally and in my opinion would throw the preverbal wrench into the gears of the economy. Bright side solar should take a nice pickup.
     
  2. MorphingDragon macrumors 603

    MorphingDragon

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    #2
    Oh no, Iranian politicians have to actually work now and work with someone since the USA doesn't run them anymore. :rolleyes:

    The economy is already screwed. The Bank Bailout ensured a broken system stays in operation and systemically broke Capitalism. ****, we can't actually compete in a free market.
     
  3. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #3
    The U.S. doesn't get any oil from Iran does it ?

    I fail to see how this would affect the US economy to any significant degree.
     
  4. mikeyredk thread starter macrumors 65816

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    #4
    Oil is a commodity item traded globally; also if Iran actually blocked the straight it would block some of the oil we do receive from that region
     
  5. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #5
    have you ever looked at a map? Do you have any idea what countries the USA buys oil from? Do you have any idea where they're located? If Iran shut down shipping thru the straights of Hormuz, are you aware of how that would effect shipments of oil to the west? besides the USA how about china, or japan, or india........seriously?
     
  6. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #6
    I am completely clueless.

    :rolleyes:
     
  7. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    #7
    Do you honestly think that the world would allow Iran to block the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf? That's the fastest way I can think of to see Iran wiped off the face of the planet...
     
  8. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #8
    You can also go round ;).
     
  9. mcrain macrumors 68000

    mcrain

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    #9
    You may want to do a little historical research on what transpired prior to the deal Reagan made with Iran to get himself elected.

    Hint: Look up the oil embargo from the 70s.
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #10
    Well that's rubbish - geography fail :eek:.
     
  11. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #11
    Certainly both India and China are very strongly motivated to keep all oil options open to them. I suppose if I were them, and my maintenance of their sizable economic growth rates were one of my prime responsibilities, I wouldn't be jazzed about sanctions either.
     
  12. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #12
    Its amazing what govts do for their own power and control over the people. Just what we need another stupid war because of idiots in power,Irans military and most likely its govt would be wiped out, Oil prices would go sky high so who really wins in this scenario? Plus they have had ample time to put their weapons program underground. Man is a freaking mess still fighting and killing for control over others. Self serving Govts seem to be the common problem all over the world.
     
  13. iStudentUK macrumors 65816

    iStudentUK

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    #13
    That was 'Merican style geography...

    (Tis the season to be trolling, troll-ol-ol-ol-ol... :D )
     
  14. stickybuns macrumors 6502

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    #14
    Could you explain this part, please? I'm assuming you're referring to something from the pre-Islamic Revolution era, but I was just a toddler when the Shah was still in power and know very little of U.S.-Persian relations during that time.
     
  15. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #15
    No we don't get oil from Iran, but about 1/3 of the worlds oil passes through those straits and would be cut off.
     
  16. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

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    #16
    Please keep right when exiting. :p

    When does an act of economic warfare become an act of actual war.

    Discuss.
     
  17. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #17
    Yes. I know what this means after actually reading the news articles. At first I just read the headline so I assumed Iran was rattling it's Oil export sword.

    Now I know they want to block the Strait of Hormuz.

    Well now. That's not gonna happen. I know the Navy pretty good and the 5th Fleet will keep anything from happening. Unless of course Iran is dumb enough to start a war. Which I personally don't think they want to do.

    That crazy ruler over there may be crazy but he's not stupid.

    Oh. And. The Navy WILL shoot first.
     
  18. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #18
    I think this is the key to Iran's threats. They're trying to blunt economic sanctions under UN auspices by threatening China and India. This would, of course, damage Iran as well, but either they're bluffing or they really are willing to engage in economic warfare to secure a nuclear weapon.

    Well, the mullahs are playing, I think, a game of poker here. They know that actually laying down mines or taking shots at oil tankers is a dangerous road — we've played this game before and it ended up in the destruction of an Iranian airliner.

    And, doing more than this, such as engaging a US Navy ship with a Silkworm missile, is a road to hell. The Iranians know this and won't push the Strait issue too hard.

    Iran has become increasingly adept at using covert action and diplomacy to achieve its aims, closing the Strait is the kind of direct conflict that Iran has avoided.
     
  19. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    I am very aware of our history having lived through the shortages, gas lines and Carter's abomination of an administration with 18% interest on home loans.

    Today's world economy is much more dependent on oil than it was 40 years ago.

    A blockade would result in Iran ceasing to exist.

    First the world would scream for the US to end it with naval force. We would. Iran would respond by attacking the oil fields in the region with their significant supply of short range misses, and would launch missle attacks on the US fleet.

    The Obama administration would flounder in their response, not wanting to appear weak Democrats however, they would launch a half-baked plan to suppress Iran's show of force, which would ultimately escalate into another Gulf War, this time pitting the military might of Iran against the US, England and France, with Israel joining in for good measure. Israel will take out Iran's nuclear facilities in a preemptive strike.

    These actions would make the first two Gulf Wars look like police actions. Iran has a real military, unlike Iraq.

    If they attempt a military blockade, the world will not simply watch it happen, and the "World Police" will be expected to step in to bloody the bully's nose
     
  20. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #20
    actually it seems to have been English style geography :p
     
  21. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #21
    An entirely possible, though unlikely scenario. (It does make for a good military triller though).

    The Iranians know that the combined airpower of the US and EU, with backing by Israel (though I think they may be asked, as they were in 1991, to stay out of it), is a serious danger. A full-scale conflict is incredibly risky for Iran's powers that be.

    Outside influence would be massive and I'm not sure how internal stresses would respond. It's possible that nationalism would protect the mullahs, but on the other hand, they may be forced to defend themselves from both Green Revolution insurgencies and the massive airpower of the US and EU.

    Their economy would be in ruins, the country blasted, and their program for both nuclear weapons and ruling the Middle East by proxy destroyed.
     
  22. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #22
    ...and we'd be stuck with having to reconstruct another country.
     
  23. mikeyredk thread starter macrumors 65816

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    #23
    In my opinion the two wars we just fought (Afghanistan, Iraq) weakened us not physically but mentally. I believe we are very war weariness has taken its toll I don't believe the american people have the stomach for a third war. This I may give too much credit to Iran but they might know this and would push this especially if we are going to go into this campaign unilaterally. Thoughts?
     
  24. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #24
    it seems far more likely that without the support of the Chinese, the Indians and the Russians, that the US and EU will reconsider and avoid a confrontation. Are Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, EAU, Bahrain et al really looking for some sort of military confrontation Iran at the moment? It seems unlikely.

    Probably Iran will "win" this round
     
  25. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #25
    I agree, no one really has the stomach for such a conflict. The Iranians are bluffing.

    They may be willing to put a few armed zodiacs in the water and drop some mines in the water, they may even go as far as to "test" a surface-to-surface missile or some other stunt of military bravado, but when it comes down to it, they won't want the fight.

    Right now, we're seeing public saber rattling, but I'd argue that the Iranians are buying time. The problem is, we don't have the cards to call their bluff.

    For those who are critical of Obama, several American administrations have failed to keep nuclear weapons out of belligerent hands. Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and India have built all nuclear weapons while the world watched impotently.

    We have to come to terms with an nuclear armed Iran.
     

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