Italy and Austria start the process that could be their Brexit

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 1458279, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #1
  2. cube macrumors G5

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    #3
    The Italian vote is pro-democracy, not pro-populism.
     
  3. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    Italy and Austria vote in crucial tests for European centre ground
    Far-right candidate concedes in Vienna presidential election as all eyes turn to Rome

    Italians and Austrians headed to the polls in closely watched votes on Sunday that will gauge the strength of Europe’s populist and extreme right political parties.


    This is kinda strange: It seems like it works if you go thru google, but not if you go direct.
    Try clicking on the google search, should be 1st item shown.

    https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=italy leaving the eu
     
  4. cube macrumors G5

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    #5
    Many news outlets not getting the full picture regarding Italy today.
     
  5. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    #6
    Yep. The referendum is going to change the European asset.
     
  6. giggles macrumors 6502

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    #7
    Austrians voted for the not-anti-EU candidate.

    Italians voted for the everyone-but-Renzi (far left to far right except part of "renzist" center-left) temporary coalition. This admittedly could be partially considered a "brexit/trump" social-media-fuelled kind of vote, but not remotely "anti-EU" if not for a minority of the voters.

    The title makes no sense.
     
  7. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    As I understood it, this would have started the process towards a Brexit type vote. Was that not one of the outcomes of the vote? Not that it was a Brexit type vote, but could have led in that direction depending on the outcome of the vote.

    So your saying that both votes went hard left, meaning pro EU?
     
  8. giggles macrumors 6502

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    People of every party but Renzi's (and even internal Democrat opposition to Renzi) this morning going to bars and workplaces will be thrilled for the greatest thrill of all: WINNING. They got their winning "fix" for free (voting for the "just leave the Constitution the way it is" option). It's like they won the World Cup.

    So the lesson here is never attach your face to a referendum if you want it to succeed, or you will trigger the "I wanna be a winner" response in voters of every party but yours (just look at the high turnout). Plus everyone with a problem of any kind in their life will vote for the anti-government option. Let's not kid ourselves into assuming anyone (save for a few people) cared about or even understood the actual reforms.
     
  9. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #10
    http://news.sky.com/story/italian-pm-matteo-renzi-to-resign-in-wake-of-referendum-defeat-10683879

    According to this ^^ link, this was more of a Trump/Brexit move.

    Doesn't that mean the people vote in the direction of a Trump/Brexit/change/ fewer migrants?
     
  10. giggles macrumors 6502

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    #11
    Austrian vote is decidely pro-EU, the anti-EU far right candidate (a chance of a lifetime for Austrians to start a brexit kind of process) lost.

    As for Italy, since the global economic crisis started a couple of years ago, it's hard to find ANY party in the EU that doesn't say at least something "EU-exity". It's baseline background noise, like complaining about "those people in Washington" in the US. Except it's "in Brussels". It's not necessarily left or right, it can and it has been both depending by the country and the election. But as for people and parties being ACTUALLY anti-EU? Completely different matter. Italy would be the last of the 28 states to leave the EU and close the door while leaving.

    If we wanna plot the two votes on the "trumpism" narrative in the West, it would be
    Austria: trumpism lost 0-1
    Italy: trumpism partially won, not a whole point but half a point
     
  11. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #12
    That's a bit odd, or seems a bit odd. With the banks in trouble in Italy, I would have expected them to want to stay for a bailout from the EU, but I could also see the people all over the EU tired of not growth and suck economy.

    Maybe after a while with Trump (assuming an economic uptrend), nations will see the socialism isn't the way to go. It's hard to think that with all the suck economies all over the world that people are more upset. Maybe it's just a matter of not knowing which direction to go.
     
  12. giggles macrumors 6502

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    In the "NO" front there were at the same time
    - immigrant huggers (far left and internal Democrat opposition)
    - immigrant haters (Northern League, far right)
    - EU/eurozone skeptics_but_just_on_paper (5 Stars Movement)
    - actual EU/eurozone skeptics LePen-style (Northern League)
    - EU huggers (internal Democrat opposition)
    - EU whatevers but mostly huggers (far left, center-right, random Renzi-haters)

    Foreign press is hard pressed to read through this mess. Definitely not "anti-immigrants/anti-EU" in its entirety.
    --- Post Merged, Dec 4, 2016 ---
    Average voters in the streets mostly don't have a grasp of banking issues, economics or politics.

    We live in an era were political marketing is everything and "botnets" on social media can change elections.

    There is clearly a wave of "power to the little man" narrative shaking the west that influences every election in 2016-2017 on both sides of the Atlantic. And a Russian intelligence/propaganda network rooting for it.

    Still the Austrian vote was a bump in this narrative.
    Italy, a mixed bag.
     
  13. takao macrumors 68040

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    #14
    On the austrian vote:
    The winner Van der Bellen actually increased it's lead by 3-4% over the election in May. I wouldn't be surprised if the big political events like Brexit & Trump elections played a role in here. Some voters obviously were concerned to be seen in the same light and changed their choice.

    According to the exit polls 65% of those who voted for van der Bellen did so because he was the clear PRO-Eu candidate. It was the no 1 reason.
    Actually the right wing FPÖ candidate Norbert Hofer was very unhappy about Nigel Farrage making comments in regard to an possible exit if he wins. By such comments from abroad it mobilzed additional campaigning against him. An austrian business leader from a building company for example sponsered a pure anti-Hofer & anti-öxit ad campaign out of his own pocket which did run for the last 2 months on newspapers and TV.
    By making this about the EU instead about the domestic unhappiness about the current government (with their little progress) the FPÖ actually lost votes because of Farrage comments. In Austria there is still a clear pro-EU sentiment in the population and Farrage is seen as a political clown.

    Other Factors which played a role: endorsements by other political parties especially on the conservative side for Van der Bellen. Most important IMHO was the support of a big group of small town mayors. People might be sceptical of the federal government and parties but if their local small town conservative mayor endorses a candidate who is a rather on the left spectrum they actually listen.

    On the positive side both candidates talked about uniting Austria and closing the rift so i'm looking forward to next year.
     
  14. twietee macrumors 603

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    #15
    I didn't follow their campaigning - but German media reported it to be the most disgusting and horrible exchange ever. That's what the Austrians I've heard said at least.
    Given our latest experiences with (far)right-wing populist movementens undermining the niveau of discourse with ease I wasn't surprised.

    Good for all of us that Hofer lost. I would have hoped it would have been by a larger amount but at least he won..
     
  15. takao macrumors 68040

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    #16
    For a presidental election it definitly was the most fierce election since the 80ties (remember Kurt Waldheim ? brrr).
    Usually presidental elections were decided between the candidates from the center parties SPÖ/ÖVP which usually were older politicans, perhaps former head of parliaments (a popular stepping stone: Hofer is 2nd vice-president of the Nationalrat) with lots of expierence. So they usually were sleepy "why do we even have a president"/"choose the grandpa best suited to being the number1 diplomat" affairs.

    Hofer anounced that he would interpret the presidential role more active in the context with daily politics (within the constitutional limits) opposed to the traditional "moral-compass/conscience", diplomatic role by the predecessors.
    By constitutional law the austrian President for example can release the austrian government and force the parliament to agree to a new set up of ministers. This could very likely trigger a new election. So far no austrian president has ever used this power. With Hofer it would have been very likely.

    Another presidental power not used so far is the one to refuse to sign in a new minister. In the past it came close to being used during the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition. It forced the FPÖ to vet/prepare it's ministrial candidates and the hardliners of the party couldn't get the positions because it might have triggered a refusal. Which for a new government would be a big image hit.
    Both van der Bellen and Hofer (as the candidates in the last round) are likely to use this power. That's why this election was important to many people since it provides "checks & balances" to the goverment.
    If the FPÖ is part of the next government (very likely... in the last months there has been a slow reapproach between SPÖ FPÖ) it might prove important to get ministers closer to a political center instead of extreme politicans.

    Austria votes Government leadership & President from the opposite sides quite often: For example during the 90ties it was a SPÖ led big coalition so as a president Klestil (on paper independent) a former ÖVP politician was voted.
    During the ÖVP-FPÖ led coalition Heinz Fischer(SPÖ) was elected.

    Had Hofer been elected a future government which includes the FPÖ might have had more free reign. Now with van der Bellen as President i don't see a possible FPÖ governmental inclusion that negative anymore

    On the FPÖ in general: Their election campaigns are usually disgusting and their personal might include an aweful lot of nutters but i think it's important to note that their range of supporters is wider than reported and usually once part of a government their tune changes quite fast. They might be very conservative in regards of society liberties and like to fill their coffers (;)) but they still are pro business/anti-bureaucracy party and include also business leaders etc. Because it's the same everywhere: Critizising everything the government does and promising the moon is easy, but doing actual work is harder.

    Just like the FPÖ quickly changed it's message around the Brexit vote: the ensuing chaos was quite a wake up call for them IMHO and they silently changed their anti EU rethoric more into a "we never were for leaving the EU but the EU needs to reform to help the little people more" message.
     
  16. twietee macrumors 603

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    #17
    Agreed and that should go without saying. Still, I have no pitty for those that chose to follow "Rattenfänger". Also agreed on the pro-capitalistic comment. Almost nobody reads the party-programs but if they'd do the genereic AFD-supporter would be left amazed what s/he signed up to..
     
  17. 8692574 Suspended

    8692574

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    #18
    Where do you get this idea?

    We voted for a change in our costitution, we said no we do not want it changed..... there was nothing about EU.
     
  18. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

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    #19
  19. 8692574 Suspended

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    #20
    This is the media, and how they want things to look, they tried to scare No voters in saying that hell and doom would be upon them, that Italy would leave EU and italians would lose money , banks would collapse and such.

    The other side was just about let's kick Renzi out.

    The reality is, for anyone who really went on and saw what the vote was for, it was a different story ;).

    P.S. the article has a clickbait title, but if you read it there's nothing pointing at we leave EU with the NO.
     
  20. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

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    #21
    The vote was not to leave the Europe as Brexit's was, at least not formally.
    The political implication of the vote however is a political rejection of EU-aimed reforms. Italy is not going to leave the EU for this referendum, but the path is now clearly going the leave way, and this will be truer if Mattarella decides to go for another execitive, especially with Padoan or Prodi as PM's. Italians are fed up.
     
  21. 8692574 Suspended

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    #22
    You got it upside down, Prodi is pro EU......and Prodi said (not that I think it will be true) that he whold leave all politics if the no won.

    Again I don't understand how you came to that conclusion.... apart from some newspaper title...
     
  22. takao macrumors 68040

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    #23
    It's important to note that Italy's "NO" was actually a vote for the status-quo and not a vote for change.

    I think it was a mistake by Renzi to attach ones self directly to referendum and also the way it was tried to "force" this constiutional change. Of course change is necessary but a long public discussion across many party lines will be necessary so that everybody can identify with a new constitution.

    By attaching himself he made the referendum a spot for all people who are unhappy with the current government to protest with their feet instead of it being a question about the topic actually asked.
     
  23. Solomani macrumors 68030

    Solomani

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    #24
    I was kinda hoping this would pave the way for Mussolini's pornstar-ish granddaughter to become the new Italian premier. She'd be a welcome guest at Trump Tower, no doubt.

    Pass the popcorn! Grazie!
     
  24. giggles macrumors 6502

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    #25
    lolwut
     

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