John Dvorak: The Grim Mac Reaper

Discussion in 'Community' started by zelmo, Dec 31, 2004.

  1. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

    Jul 4, 2004
    "Essentially stagnant"?

    Yet another 'Apple is dying' piece...

    I haven't seen this much buzz around Apple for years. At least, the average Joe or Jane is starting to hear good things about them now... and many are switching.

    It takes years to turn a company around... and it remains to be seen how this rumored bottom-dollar 'headless Mac' does, but one visit to the rammed Apple Store in London does not say stagnant to me...

    "...but these people are inconsequential except in online forums, where they make a fuss whenever anyone discusses the Mac."

    Heh-heh... idiot.
    These very people (i.e. us) are responsible for one of the most powerful yet overlooked factors when people buy a computer. Good old-fashioned word-of-mouth from a friend, colleague or neighbour...

    Furthermore, I think the basis of his argument is flawed because of the W3 research. We have 8 Macs at work -- not one is hooked up to the web.
  2. iGav macrumors G3

    Mar 9, 2002
    excuse me for being eloquent... but the guy's a f*****g moron.
  3. Les Kern macrumors 68040

    Les Kern

    Apr 26, 2002
    Sometimes it's hard to argue with numbers, and he does have a valid point based on them. But oh, those numbers! Apple's installed base IS bigger than most people think, but certainly not on par with Windows. As for Linux, I think it indicates the numbers are completely bogus. Can anyone even imagine that there are more home-Linux users in the world? How stupid is that? I know of ONE person, and I get around. I've seen installed-base numbers as high as 20% for the Mac. This is like polling and exit-polling in the last election... worthless as data.
    Dvorak better not get a chance to handle his own social security money... he's probably put it in Gateway.
  4. Fukui macrumors 68000


    Jul 19, 2002
    Dvorak is flaimbait, thats why people like to use him when there's no real news. As for marketshare, apple is going down, but remember, share is just a ratio, it doesn't really mean anything. Apple sells close to 4 million macs a year (800-900 thousand per quarter). Now if half of those purchases are for new users, in 10 years (starting 2000) apple would have doubled thier userbase to about 40-55 million users. Now, in 2010 there's probably gonna be about 1 Billion computer users, and 40 mllion is around .4% share... but, 40 million people are still 40 million people, its a fine market, just not market-share... so apple is dying, and nothing can save them, because who would want to market to 40 million users anyways.
    Tell that to MS who made 200 mill in profits just from Mac Office last year.
  5. WinterMute Moderator emeritus


    Jan 19, 2003
    London, England

    Apple will continue to offer an alternative computing platform for those of us who actually know what we are doing... ;)
  6. edesignuk Moderator emeritus


    Mar 25, 2002
    London, England
  7. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

    Jul 4, 2004

    That's really pretty... and funny too.

  8. Macmaniac macrumors 68040


    "Much of the problem arises from the psychology created by the overpriced iPod. And Mac users who buy the players contribute to the problem by encouraging the company to maintain its high-margin death march."

    Wait a second, is this the same iPod that has probably sold close to 8 million units? Say it isn't so!!
    Unfortunately he discounts the impact that the iPod is making on the market-share numbers, if Apple does go through with the $500 mac we will see those numbers rise.

    Although his comment about the forum users is interesting...
    Do you think we hurt the mac market share with our attitude?
  9. Macmaniac macrumors 68040


    How did u do that?
  10. edesignuk Moderator emeritus


    Mar 25, 2002
    London, England
    I wish I could tell you...

    ...but I don't want to :p
  11. Macmaniac macrumors 68040


    Actually I think i figured it out, its an image, when I went to post a reply it did not come up with millions of characters but an image file...
    Where do u get these things;)
  12. Chris1127 macrumors newbie

    Nov 9, 2003
    Jackson, MS
    If Apple is going to Hell in a handbasket, as Dvorak would have us all believe, then why did investors think enough of Apple to raise the stock price from $21.55 on Jan 2, 2004, to $64.80 today, while Microsoft's stock price dropped from $27.58 to $26.76 over the same period?
  13. jsw Moderator emeritus


    Mar 16, 2004
    Andover, MA
    Gift baskets are always overpriced, and the import tax on items sent to Hell is, well, devilishly large.
  14. Loge macrumors 68030


    Jun 24, 2004
    From the link, Mac's online market share quoted at 2.7%, up from 2.3% a year ago, and up from 1.8% in March 2003.

    Windows share is now 89.9%, down from 93.2% in March 2003.

    Does this guy understand what a trend is?
  15. zelmo thread starter macrumors 603


    Jul 3, 2004
    Mac since 7.5
    I don't think so, but I'm a Mac elitist. :rolleyes:

    Actually, I know lots of Mac users, and none come off to me as elitist, at least in person. :D Most every Mac person I've ever come in contact with in the Real World is quite friendly, and eager to help a PC user become comfortable with the Mac OS. As far as forums like this, we're generally among friends and may let our hair down (or get our dander up) occasionally, but since the audience is restricted mostly to more experienced computer users, I can't see any alleged superior attitude having any impact at all on the average consumer, who is not likely to venture here.

    Journalists who write stupid, inflamatory, and inaccurate things about the Mac and Apple are likely to get torched via email, so they are prone to view Mac users as elitists. For Average Joe, we aren't even on the radar.
  16. pseudobrit macrumors 68040


    Jul 23, 2002
    Jobs' Spare Liver Jar
    This has to be the 15th time Dvorak has predicted the demise of Apple in the past 10 years.

    Someday I hope Dvorak is found beaten to death with a Bluetooth Apple keyboard... a Qwerty keyboard.
  17. stcanard macrumors 65816


    Oct 19, 2003
    Actually, I can. Most of the people I know run Linux at home, and I can only think of a half-dozen off the top of my head that run Macs. Then again, most don't run windows, so it's definitely not a random sampling.

    It all depends on the type of people you know. I work in a company whose primary product is java based system deployed to unix servers, so it's just natural that the people in an industry like that are going to run linux at home.

    OTOH there's a trend that Dvorak is ignoring (I assume anyway, I refuse to be party to his constant flamebaiting by rewarding him with page views), which is how many of the hardcore linux people I know are seriously considering an iBook for their next purchase -- Linux has never been great on laptops.

    Ever since the latest iBook revs I hear a lot of "I would never have considered it before, but now that the iBook is under $1000 it's really quite affordable". So the trend is good.
  18. EminenceGrise macrumors member

    Jun 23, 2004
    In other news...

    Ferrari have suddenly announced that they are exiting the car business due to their "abysmally low market share".

    A factory spokesman is quoted as saying, "We can simply no longer compete with the Fiats of the world - it has become obvious to us that a high margin, low marketshare product is not a successful business proposition, and therefore are closing our factories and dissolving the company, effective immediately."

    The move has come as a shock to the auto industry, which has seen Ferrari as a model for the high end of the industry for decades. Unconfirmed rumors surrounding the sudden announcement suggest the decision was made after a member of the Ferrari family read an article in PC Magazine about Apple Computer.
  19. Sun Baked macrumors G5

    Sun Baked

    May 19, 2002
    Re: John Dvorak: The Grim Mac Reaper

    Funny I always though he came across more like Bobo the Clown.
  20. OutThere macrumors 603


    Dec 19, 2002
    Analysts have recently been saying that Ferrari's high prices have just been driving away all of those potential Hyundai switchovers, which truly put the nail in Ferrari's coffin. In a press release on Thursday, the President and CEO of Ferrari AG declared, "We just can't compete with those other cars, thus, we must close the factory, as there is no point in having alternatives in this world."
  21. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

    Jan 6, 2004
    that was great to read
  22. solvs macrumors 603


    Jun 25, 2002
    LaLaLand, CA
    I know of a couple of people, but they dual boot to Windows. Linux is ok, but it definitely has it's drawbacks.

    Overpriced maybe, but considering people (myself included) buy it at that price, maybe it isn't. A product is only worth what you can sell it for. And considering some of the profit goes back to R&D for it and iTunes, I'll overpay for it again when I buy my next one. As will a lot of people, most of them PC users. Considering it isn't only Mac users who buy iPods (duh!).

    Dvorak just wants attention and hits. Typical troll behaviour. Ignore.
  23. SiliconAddict macrumors 603


    Jun 19, 2003
    Chicago, IL
    John is still around?!?? Wow. Does anyone even read anything he writes anymore?
  24. solvs macrumors 603


    Jun 25, 2002
    LaLaLand, CA
    What can I say, we're gluttons for punishment. Especially considering the Windows people that think he's an idiot, too.

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