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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by rdowns, Oct 26, 2008.
The cynic in me looks at this as a set-up to the most "amazing" comeback by McCain come Nov. 4th.
Even with everything seeming to go towards Obama at this late juncture, I can't help but wait for the other-shoe-to-drop.
I will be riveted Election Night.
I heard a talking head say it this morning. McCain can't win it at this point, but Obama can lose it.
I hate being overconfident but McCain has a huge fight to win with him being behind anywhere from 7-12 point depending on the poll. That would be hard enough but he also has the fight that has broken out within his campaign and party.
The national news value of the unveiling of Sarah Palin, the Republican Party conference and both of the candidates speeches resulted in about a 3% positive swing in McCain's national numbers which took about 10-12 days to peak. That was also when there were far more undecideds and Obama's support was softer.
Given Obama's strength in state polling and Nate Silver's assumption that McCain would need a 1-2% lead in the national vote to win, I think that shows the scale of the task they have to achieve over the next 9 days or so i.e. about a 5-6% national swing when support has hardened and early voting already begun. It would take something far more newsworthy and wholly beneficial than all of the above for McCain to pull this one out of the bag. To quote Nate Silver, it's starting to look like it's 'dead girl, live boy' territory.
That's why the circular firing squad has started; it's looking grim.
Rove must have gotten a new calculator since '06!
If Karl Rove said it, it must be true.