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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Rogifan, May 19, 2019.
Trump was obviously briefed on this. Of course he can’t ever keep his mouth shut so he tweets this:
WW3 might be sooner than expected...
God I love that Donald J Trump is President of the United States.
If the rocket was fired from "eastern Baghdad" (the capita of Iraq) how does this equate to an Iranian military action?
My understanding is that matters in Baghdad are fraught enough for those who serve there, (and I have worked with individuals who had served both in Afghanistan and Iraq and were unanimous in letting me know that Iraq was far worse, and more dangerous, and that Iran was not the cause of this, but disgruntled and alienated locals - i.e.Iraqis - were) as it seems a sufficient number of locals (i.e. Iraqis) dispute the US presence in their country and are prepared to express that in forms that exclude classical diplomacy.
What proof exists that this came from - or originated in - Iran, rather than from disgruntled Iraqis?
I’m assuming our intel is saying that. Who knows. I have a nephew who’s in the Army. He’s tech support for the 3 star generals who oversee the troops in the Middle East. He’s stationed out of the US embassy in Iraq. Thankfully he’s on a 2 week break right now. Hopefully by the time he gets back tensions will have cooled a bit.
And - with the greatest of respect - until verified by alternative and credible sources - for, given Mr Trump's pathological addiction to mendacity, frankly, he is not a credible source for anything - I will reserve judgment.
However, I very much doubt that this has originated in Iran; to my mind, it is more likely to have come from a disgruntled location (military, professional and personal) location in Iraq.
A tweet for every occasion
IF something happens with Iran I doubt it would be a long nor down out fight.. The aftermath perhaps but the actual fight? Nah......
The same was said about Iraq... The 4th largest military, they'll fight to death, yada, yada, yada.... What happened? They were surrendering to reporters.....
You forget who's backing Iran. Hint, Katyusha.
Yeah..... WW3? Wake me when it happens over Iran... So ya I'll stick by my original puhlease comment..
The rocket is probably in use by anoyone willing to buy it..
Iraq didn't have a military at the point of the invasion. Russia would prefer to have interests in Syria and Iran and remain there to their benefit. Russia's long term goals are to bring Turkey to their side, and not western powers, and destabilize Saudi Arabia. Comparing Iran and Iraq is silly.
They have police, they have state police, regular military, special forces, intelligence assets overseas and likely within our own intelligence community, foreign assets, etc.
Let me put it to you this way. The current intelligence outfits that conduct domestic and foreign spying in Iran, are a classified as a high risk by our intelligence community as well as private intelligence the US and other western governments contract out to. The IRGC and Savama are brutal.
The agencies were built on principles of the dissolved Savak during Pahlavi's reign, which was designed and modeled after and by the CIA and Mossad. The old and current outfits make even Mossad's gruesome under-doings look like a cakewalk.
Best case is that the CIA and Mossad have Iranian agents within their ranks. Worst case, there are contingency plans for mass assassinations of political figures in a few countries, alongside targeted bombings.
Iraq had been a ******** even prior to the Iran-Iraq war. To give you an idea, if we went to war with Saudi Arabia today, attacked their bases and destroyed Mecca and Medina, we'd wipe up the country's forces in about six months, and I'm being very generous here. They have roughly the same equipment as us. Their military just isn't focused. Now, you'd also know during the Iran-Iraq war, the US who was aligned with the Baa'thist government of Iraq, gave them billions in cash not including weapons, both domestic and foreign, our military leaders' time and expertise, specialists and counterintelligence help. And they still lost. That's including chemical gas attacks Iraq threw at Iran.
Thanks to the China trade issues, Russia announced they'll be one of China's main suppliers of poultry, pork and soybeans. It's alright though; American farmers are getting subsidy handouts from the government with tax payers footing the bill. Almost socialist in nature.
China would also prefer to aid Iran by proxy. Cheap, quality oil. China's moving more and more of their production in house to be self-sufficient. I predict the Chinese and the UK building out and strengthening a friendship far greater than the US and UK within the next 10 years. The rest of Europe will follow suit. China's been furthering their reach for years. They're spending as much as they can at a rapid rate to have influence over regions of the world.
If Putin is as evil as he seems, his end goal is to influence the Turks and the Saudis and then destabilize their countries. Turkey is a key player in the region for western forces. Saudi is a huge business partner with the west. Take that away and you hurt a lot of industries for decades to come. Russia's been running a propaganda mission in Turkey for a while now. Keeping Erdogan in office seems logical, but the man is increasingly becoming anti-western. Turkey eventually goes under, questionable parties prop themselves up during the ensuing power vacuum, US and foreign forces pull out and Turkey falls from NATO and Russia swoops in to hold the fortress down.
The Russians have been warm and genial to the Indians for a long time. India is the biggest arms purchaser in the world. A lot of that is Russian made. Saudi comes second, UAE third. Russia and China have been selling to all three countries more than the US has in a while.
Nothing happens overnight. And by the time someone important realizes what's transpired, it's usually too late. Putin is known for having a loving view of the former USSR. Coincidentally, it was always the USSR's goal to reduce and trouble American interests and hegemony abroad. Russia's been selling weapons to Iran for God knows how long. We only know what's been made available. For all we know they've been getting regular shipments in one form or another, or given plans to manufacture the same weapons in country.
To summarize this into one sentence: North Korea could launch missiles towards major American cities, but I'd be more worried about what Iran can and will do if war is brought to them.
Edit: Forgot to note, that while Saudi is known through government and the royal family to fund terrorist groups and individuals who attack western nations including the US and UK, they also fund Chechen terrorists. The US and Saudi previously had plans over a decade ago to motivate, if you will, separatist (Chechen and otherwise) groups in Russia and Russian controlled regions to occupy Russia and its leaders. The Russians never forget anything, and they'll never let go of anything. To say they get butthurt is putting it very lightly.
Yep. Disgruntled Iraqis are the same people that gave rise to ISIS. There is a 100% chance that many pro-ISIS fighters are still "in hiding" in Iraq. Some of the original ISIS commanders were Saddam's former generals (Sunni Baathists who were persecuted and treated like second-class citizens when the US occupation favored the pro-Shiite government).
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And in 2019, Orange Mussolini followed up with this:
--- Post Merged, May 20, 2019 ---
I can't fault this overall analysis, I just have to underline that Iran is very different from Iraq. In all ways, culture and history, political and military context and more...
In all ways very different. Iraq is a "modern" made-up state, its borders created by a British (and League of Nations) mandate in the 20th century. It was a forcibly cobbled-together confederation of various peoples, thanks to the British. Iran (Persia) has existed since long before the Roman Empire was even born.
The greatest thing that Iran and Iraq have in common is that the moronic orange POTUS couldn't locate either one on a world map.