" Latest odds on presidential election: Trump would beat Clinton if election were held today"

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by thermodynamic, Sep 28, 2016.

  1. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #1
    http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/09/latest_odds_on_presidential_el.html

    Not good.

    Article has more, including recognizing other polls showing Clinton in the lead but by only the slimmest of margins, which is not good for the Democrats.

    Have the Democrats looked at why they're so stunned and afraid and everything involving wh ois apparently so un-American with bigotry and sexism and proud to support trickle down and everything else and yet he's managed to spend less and still remain neck and neck? (Note: Those of us who receive campaigning/donation emails from both camps have definitely seen more fear from the Democratic camp.) What can the Democrats do to secure more voters' votes come November? It should be a cakewalk, yet it somehow isn't.
     
  2. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #2
    Even though Hillary won the debate, she didn't deliver a knockout blow. She also did not elucidate a rationale for her running for president besides she's "not Trump." she needs to get people to vote for her, not just vote against Trump.
     
  3. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #3
    You've seen more fear from the Democratic campaign because they are saying what many are thinking - a Trump Presidency is very scary. I am biased, I admit - (and if you believe the hype) - there's a lot less scary to more of the same vs what Trump could bring. So I don't think it's surprising that those emails are more "dire." Conversely - I don't think Trump is as hungry as his supporters are. He even said during the debate that win or lose, he'll still have an address on Pennsylvania Ave. ;)
     
  4. thermodynamic thread starter Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #4
    Bingo.

    She's said a few things on various sites, but it's not been enough to make this election anywhere near a landslide. If people are scared about Trump, they should be more scared how tight the election is and why it's managed to become tight, which also depends on peoples' own perceptions of individual aspects and beliefs.

    What is "the same" that having more of it is less scary compared to something Trump may or may not bring?

    Is "hungry" as in a metaphor or literal term? :(
     
  5. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #5
    I don't believe it...not after the debate. I am seeing so many examples all over the place of undecided voters deciding for Clinton, Feel the Bern voters now voting for Clinton, and what I feel is a better voter outreach and ground game going on.

    Now, the town hall debate could throw a wildcard wrench into things as this type of debate is neither candidate's strong suit. Should be interesting.
     
  6. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #6
    I don't think that word means what you think it means. Otherwise you wouldn't have cited a two-day old article published before Monday's debate.

    ...adding, at this moment: FiveThirtyEight's now-cast gives Clinton a 55% chance of winning the presidency http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
     
  7. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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    #7
    Ummm...no, it doesn't.

    Screen Shot 2016-09-28 at 11.55.04 AM.png

    Donald Trump hit 50% at some point over the weekend, then lost 10% overnight after the debate. You can keep dreaming, though.
     
  8. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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    #8
    Oh, SNAP!

    Down another few points since noon.

    Those Monday night pools must be hitting the forecast results.

    Screen Shot 2016-09-28 at 3.43.12 PM.png
     
  9. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #9
    I don't think reading five thirty eight day by day is helpful.
     
  10. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

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    #10
    No, it's not. I am posting updates to show that Donald Trump has nowhere near a 50% chance of winning a presidential election. I think we are seeing a march back to his rightful place, as a 30% kind of guy.
     
  11. maxsix Suspended

    maxsix

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    #11
    It does appear more voters are migrating to Hillary. She's spent vast sums of money to get to this point, yet it's interesting that she's failed to establish a massive lead over an opponent with zero political experience.

    Should the bottom drop out, with Trump winning, the entire Democratic universe will never be the same.
     
  12. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    #12
    I wouldn't say he has zero political experience having worked the system and having inserted himself into political discussions for years. But beyond that he has something that few people on the planet do....an insane amount of exposure and name recognition prior to running for office. In essence, he has been running for at least 30 years.

    Americans love their celebrities. We treat them like royalty.
     
  13. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    Jun 16, 2008
    #13
    It definitely isn't. And even Nate Silver said it himself, especially with regarding the polls:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lls-suggest-a-post-debate-bounce-for-clinton/

    Bold in the article for emphasis.

    Besides: Polls-Only gives her a 57.5% chance, Polls-Plus gives her 55.9%, while the Now-Cast (meaning, if the election were held today like the OP states) gives her a 61% chance.

    But I digress; we should not get in the way of a good tight-clenching circle jerk with Donald Trump hands.

    BL.
     
  14. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #14
    Nate Silver's charts have bounced all over the place, but Clinton has led then all with the exception of a very few days. It would of course be worrisome if one of those days happened to be Nov. 8, but it doesn't appear likely. As I write this Clinton's chance of winning (per the Nowcast) is 62.5%, Trump's 37.5%. In the more realistic polls-plus forecast, Clinton is winning 56.6% to 43.4%.
     

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