Latest poll, Teflon Trump in dead heat, is the slide over?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 1458279, Aug 11, 2016.

  1. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #1
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

    After probably the worst few Trump could have had, he's within the margin of error.

    It's looking like Trumps game to lose. Hillary has thrown everything at him and it's had little effect.
     
  2. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

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    #2
    Probably. The next few months will be interesting. :)

    But people have said it for months, about Trump saying things that made people believe he's not wanting to be President? Has Trump really wanted to get this far, didn't expect to, so is now upping his talk to get people to not vote for him? In which case, why bring up topics the other GOP candidates hadn't, which is how Trump won since I doubt making comments about little hands and mocking gestures as attempted sideshow humor are what won people over?
     
  3. pdqgp macrumors 68020

    pdqgp

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    #3
    Polls are Meh....they will go up and down lean either way and are not the ultimate indicator of anything. What really matters are the polls in each area state by state as it goes towards the electoral college. I really don't care what percentage of "people polled" will vote either way. It's all about the states individually and who can win which ones.

    Polls and ratings can go up or down depending on the story that week. IMO they are as bad as the media who tout them.
     
  4. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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  5. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #5
    After last night's performance (Obama founded ISIS) I wouldn't be so quick to think his worst days are behind him.

    He seems quite eager to make things even worse.
     
  6. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #6
    Battleground states per realclearpolitics.com

    Florida - Clinton +2
    Ohio - Clinton +2
    Michigan - Clinton +6
    Penn. - Clinton+9
    Virginia - +6
    Georgia - Clinton +2
    NH - +7
    Wisconsin - Clinton +9
    Minn. - Clinton +13
    Missouri - Trump +6
    Colorado - Clinton +9

    National averages 2 way race - Clinton+7
    National average 4 way race - Clinton +7

    Rasmussen is crap.
     
  7. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

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    #7
    Polls are meaningless in this election. We will not know until election day.
    --- Post Merged, Aug 11, 2016 ---
    Without the policies we had over the last eight years, it's doubtful that ISIS would be the group they are today.
     
  8. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #8
    Whoa, Clinton within 2 points of Trump in, wait for it, South Carolina.
     
  9. citizenzen macrumors 65816

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    #9
  10. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

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    #10
  11. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #11
    especially when they show the candidate you support is behind! :p
     
  12. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a

    DrewDaHilp1

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    #12
    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
     
  13. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

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    #13
    The polls will swing back and forth and they are meaningless no matter who it shows is winning. I reference the brexit polls and the fact that both candidates are disliked.
     
  14. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #14
    Rasmussen is the least accurate polling agency. They skew way to the right.

    Go ask them how President Romney is doing.
     
  15. Limey77 macrumors regular

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    #15
    Any way you cut the polls Trump is tanking. Republicans need to accept they've lost the White House, otherwise they will lose both houses as well.

    While that could be good, I'd prefer there was an actual and effective opposition to keep them in check.

    This election runs the risk of being the most lopsided possibly ever but certainly in recent memory.
     
  16. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #16
    there's no question that this election is more difficult for poll takers but if the polls were really meaningless, nobody would be spending the money to have the polls conducted in the first place. The candidates themselves find them to be useful tools so they're customers for the polling companies.

    yes, they'll swing back and forth, but that's because opinion swings back and forth.

    What leads some people to claim polls are meaningless is that they don't understand the nature and limits of the information polls provide.....that and the fact that their favored candidate isn't leading in the poll :p
     
  17. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #17
    Look at the state polls. Trump is toast. He's already out there saying if he loses he'll go back to his great life. Even he knows it. The only questions now are will he drop out or how much damage will he inflict on the US.
     
  18. Populism macrumors regular

    Populism

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    #18
    Rasmussen is click-bate for the right.

    Fivethirtyeight is the gold standard on actual poll computation (can't say the same for their articles).

    What is interesting is that their polling placed Trump in the high teens (likelihood of winning) on or about July 1. The chorus then was that he was "toast".

    By the last week of July their polling had him at 47%, so the spotlight frantically went to Russia's invasion of the DNC server.

    He's now back in the teens.

    The "toast" crowd seems to have the memory a gnat.

    Personally, I believe he will lose. But not before he gets close again, perhaps multiple times.
     
  19. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #19
    And four points in Texas.
     
  20. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #20

    To be fair, that was Fivethirtyeight's now-cast. The polls-plus model never had Trump winning at all, and the polls-only model had him winning only one day right after the RNC and by 0.2%.
     
  21. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #21
    316-221 according to FiveThirtyEight's Polls Plus:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

    358-178 with Polls Only:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    348-188 with the Now Cast:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

    One poll added taken into account as of last night dropped Clinton's chances from the low/mid 90% range to the high 80s, as they have clearly documented:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-one-poll-makes-a-big-difference/

    And seeing that 538's models have been well detailed and are a conglomerate of other polls, I'd have no regrets saying that Rasmussen is a total crock.

    BL.
     
  22. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #22
    He seems to like that idea of the moth to the flame, doesn't he. Tossup whether his wings are going to melt or catch on fire if you ask me.
     
  23. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #23
    Including today, there's 4 days left and counting. ;)

    BL.
     
  24. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #24
    Something is weird about Rasmussen's methodology. In all but one poll they have shown Trump polling better than Clinton over the last four months, which puts them at odds with the rest of the polling organizations.

    This week, the RCP average made from nine separate polls shows Clinton up +7.7 points. The McClatchy/Marist poll gives Clinton a +15 point edge over Trump.

    Reading through the methodology of Rasmussen and McClatchy/Marist, I see two potential problems: Rasmussen uses an automated system to ask questions, while McClatchy uses an interviewer. And, both are trying to adjust their polling data based on demographic data from the American Community Survey, however, Rasmussen is also weighting answers based on who answered the phone—apparently, women are more likely to answer the phone than men, and rural voters are more likely to answer the phone than urban voters.

    It's entirely possible that Rasmussen is correct, but the fact that they're consistently an outlier means we should be careful to rely on that poll.

    And, of course, a poll is just a test of voter's today and may not connect with eventual voting results. As we get closer to the election, national polls become increasingly more accurate.
     
  25. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #25
    I think Trump will beat the polls in places like Ohio and do worse than the polls suggest in places with lots of minorities. History shows that people who vote against a racist candidate have very strong support - see the Indian Muslim votes for Congress as an example.

    I think most Trump supporters will be independents, and that most poor Democrats will blame the Republicans for the status quo, but some will be shy Trumpers. I think there will be quite a lot of Republicans who have done OK/well in the past decade or so who will be shy Clinton supporters.
    --- Post Merged, Aug 11, 2016 ---
    Brexit has been extremely close in UK polls since forever - and it is far more abstract than Trump.

    If I want to know what Trump really said I can go on Youtube. It's difficult to know what Brexit really means.
     

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