March 1980: Reagan Faces Probable Defeat – Trails Carter by 15 Points

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by aaronvan, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2015
    #2
    WAIT - I thought the meme on the Right was that support for Donald Trump is growing.

    Now Right-wingers are very concerned this year that Donald Trump cannot beat Hillary Clinton or Socialist Bernie Sanders in a general election.

    The Republican Party is a disaster. Complete disarray. WOW.
     
  2. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Location:
    CT
  3. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2014
    Location:
    North Country (way upstate NY)
    #4
    The problem is Reagan appealed to Democrats especially after Carter hence the term "Reagan Democrats"

    I'd probably be thrown into that category had Clinton not been my first election. There are no Republican candidates I would vote for.
     
  4. Robisan macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    #5
    A couple of problems with this analogy:

    [​IMG]

    In 1980 Latinos were 3.7% of the electorate. In 2016 they'll be at least 15% and maybe higher, since Trump is a motivator. Given Latino antipathy toward Trump, Clinton will likely better Obama's 71% of the Latino vote.


    [​IMG]

    Note that Carter's percentage in March is identical to his November actual result. Reagan's entire gain was at the expense of third-party candidate Anderson. In 2016 there is no such third party 21% of the electorate for Trump to poach.

    Finally, the GOP emerged from their convention unified with the two major primary candidates together on the ticket. The 2016 GOP convention is shaping up as a major cluster****.

    In reality, the 2016 election bears no resemblance to what occurred in 1980.
     
  5. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2015
    #6
    Right-wingers keep forgetting that it's not all about the White male anymore.

    Lots of women vote, lots of "The Blacks" vote, and, of course, "Brown People" will be out in large numbers.
     
  6. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2014
    Location:
    North Country (way upstate NY)
    #7
    This election is driven by white folks in both the Sanders and Trump camps
     
  7. bent christian Suspended

    bent christian

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2015
    #8
    No, not really so much anymore.
     
  8. Renzatic Suspended

    Renzatic

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Location:
    Gramps, what the hell am I paying you for?
    #9
    If any one candidate can lock up the white male and female vote, they have the election, regardless if everyone else votes for the other guy.

    That's one of the nice things about being in a majority. The other is the free cheese dip.
     
  9. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2014
    Location:
    North Country (way upstate NY)
    #10
    OK if you believe that then I won't argue
    --- Post Merged, Mar 21, 2016 ---
    If that cheese dip has some pico in it I want to join that side
     
  10. Renzatic Suspended

    Renzatic

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Location:
    Gramps, what the hell am I paying you for?
    #11
    Are you talking about pico de gallo, or actual beaks?

    ...both can be provided if you ask.
     
  11. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2014
    Location:
    North Country (way upstate NY)
    #12
    pico de gallo with extra cilantro please that's enough to make any man abandon his values
     
  12. Renzatic Suspended

    Renzatic

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Location:
    Gramps, what the hell am I paying you for?
    #13
    I dunno, man. Queso with anything in it but queso is weird...
     
  13. Robisan macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    #14
    Why white voters won’t be enough to put Donald Trump in the White House

    Former Mitt Romney strategist (and avowed Trump opponent) Stuart Stevens looked at the math for the Daily Beast last week. "In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states," Stevens wrote. He continued: "The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote."​
     
  14. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Location:
    República Cascadia
    #15
    Nice try, but Bernie says he is in for the long haul.
     
  15. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

    Joined:
    May 1, 2010
    Location:
    California
    #16
    This is good, he's sucking the small donations away from Hillary by the truck load.
     
  16. aaronvan thread starter Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Location:
    República Cascadia
    #17
    I heard on NPR today that 36% of Bernie supporters say they will not vote for Hillary under any circumstances. That number will change, of course, but man there is a lot of anger out there.
     
  17. Robisan macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    #18
    This is why Hillary's unfavorable rating is artificially high. By November that 36% will be a very low single digit number.
     
  18. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

    Joined:
    May 1, 2010
    Location:
    California
    #19
    That'll send a chilling message to Hillary and Washington.

    If nothing else, at least Washington is getting an idea of how pissed off we are.
     
  19. chown33 macrumors 604

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2009
    #20
    Personally, I'd be at least as interested in what the nearly 2/3 majority of Bernie's supporters said.
     
  20. Renzatic Suspended

    Renzatic

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Location:
    Gramps, what the hell am I paying you for?
    #21
    "...eh, Hillary. I GUESS. WHATEVER.
     

Share This Page