Maybe the warming really is worse

Sydde

macrumors 68020
Original poster
Aug 17, 2009
2,105
2,163
IOKWARDI
The "Denialists" have been telling us that global warming has stalled, that the "Warmistas" have been doing some kind of chicken little routine.
[url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-1997-underestimated-by-half/]RealClimate[/url] said:
A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared.

Obtaining the globally averaged temperature from weather station data has a well-known problem: there are some gaps in the data, especially in the polar regions and in parts of Africa. As long as the regions not covered warm up like the rest of the world, that does not change the global temperature curve.

But errors in global temperature trends arise if these areas evolve differently from the global mean. That’s been the case over the last 15 years in the Arctic, which has warmed exceptionally fast, as shown by satellite and reanalysis data and by the massive sea ice loss there. This problem was analysed for the first time by Rasmus in 2008 at RealClimate, and it was later confirmed by other authors in the scientific literature.
...
Now Kevin Cowtan (University of York) and Robert Way (University of Ottawa) have developed a new method to fill the data gaps using satellite data.... Cowtan and Way apply their method to the HadCRUT4 data, which are state-of-the-art except for their treatment of data gaps. For 1997-2012 these data show a relatively small warming trend of only 0.05 °C per decade – which has often been misleadingly called a “warming pause”.... after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.
The corrected data (bold lines) are shown in the graph compared to the uncorrected ones (thin lines). The temperatures of the last three years have become a little warmer, the year 1998 a little cooler.
This is looking much worse than we thought. If'n you believe what those dastardly scientist types are saying. We are at a decision point now: eat, drink and party, or get down to brass tacks and try addressing the problem before humanity and civilization are essentially driven from the planet,
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
What temperature do you think it should be? It's 24 degrees outside my window right now. What would be okay with you?
 

jnpy!$4g3cwk

macrumors 65816
Feb 11, 2010
1,100
1,293
What temperature do you think it should be? It's 24 degrees outside my window right now. What would be okay with you?
Are you saying that you would prefer tropical temperatures everywhere on the planet? Be careful, you might get what you wish for.

To emphasize the point of the article: in a typical global warming scenario, the temperature at the equator increases only a small amount, while the temperature at the poles increases a large amount.


But, before we get to the point where New York is under 200 feet of water, the pH of the surface layer of the ocean is decreasing at an alarming rate.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21594238-acid-seas-mean-smaller-more-vulnerable-oysters-shrinking-problem

Google "ocean acidification" and see what you come up with.
 

elistan

macrumors 6502a
Jun 30, 2007
979
441
Denver/Boulder, CO
What temperature do you think it should be? It's 24 degrees outside my window right now. What would be okay with you?
I'd be okay with about 1 C cooler as a global average.

I don't really care what the temp outside your window is at a single point in time.

<sarcasm warning>
It was 55 F in Boulder on Saturday, and 64 F on Sunday - that's a massive amount of global warming, isn't it. We're all doomed to spontaneously combust. Oh, wait - it'll be only 48 F today. That's a huge amount of global cooling, and we should have a snowball Earth by next week, right?
 

sviato

macrumors 68020
Oct 27, 2010
2,274
44
HR 9038 A
Well it's like -25C outside right now and super windy, so I'd love some warming :D

As for what to do? Countries will keep piggybacking off of each others' efforts to address the factors that cause the warming, leading to nothing really being done. So buy insurance instead ;)
 

Eraserhead

macrumors G4
Nov 3, 2005
10,300
10,373
UK
Well it's like -25C outside right now and super windy, so I'd love some warming :D

As for what to do? Countries will keep piggybacking off of each others' efforts to address the factors that cause the warming, leading to nothing really being done. So buy insurance instead ;)
Fixing global warming is often about increasing efficiency and saving money. That is stuff every country wants to do.

And China has done really well at getting the costs of things like solar panels down so they'll make loads of money out of them in future.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
Are you saying that you would prefer tropical temperatures everywhere on the planet? Be careful, you might get what you wish for.
I'm not saying anything. I'm asking a question. Wherever the hell you are, right now there is a temperature. In your mind what do you think the temperature should be?
 

zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,725
3,711
I'm not saying anything. I'm asking a question. Wherever the hell you are, right now there is a temperature. In your mind what do you think the temperature should be?
What does this have to do with anything? One random data point doesn't mean crap. It doesn't matter what "it is" and it doesn't matter what "you think it should be". It's still just one data point from one place at one point in time.

Global warming isn't about picking one random place at one random time, it's about measuring the yearly average temperature fluctuation across the entire planet.

It's -26 in Alert, Canada right now, but that doesn't change the fact that, on average, worldwide temperatures have been steadily increasing in the past few decades.
 

sviato

macrumors 68020
Oct 27, 2010
2,274
44
HR 9038 A
Fixing global warming is often about increasing efficiency and saving money. That is stuff every country wants to do.
I wouldn't say so. At this point it is impossible to get all of the countries in the world to cooperate in a global coalition to attempt to "fix" global warming. Due to this, the free-rider problem will exist: if one country begins to heavily tax carbon output, for example, another can simply say "hey they're doing it, so we don't have to. Globally, we'll benefit from their reduction in carbon without doing anything".

Of course slowing the effects of global warming should be in everyone's best interest, however, it is difficult to construct a social or economic policy that would achieve this (EU's permit trading system largely failed, we'll see the effects of Australia's carbon tax as it matures).

People are mostly worried about their short-term profits and benefits, and often aren't willing to sacrifice those for better long-term gains.
 

lannister80

macrumors 6502
Apr 7, 2009
476
17
Chicagoland
I'm not saying anything. I'm asking a question. Wherever the hell you are, right now there is a temperature. In your mind what do you think the temperature should be?
I want temperature/humidity/rainfall/etc to not disrupt humankind's current "status quo" in terms of where we live where we get our food.

Habitable areas stay habitable, farmable areas stay farmable, grazable areas stay grazable, etc. That's what I want, and what everyone should want.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
Global warming isn't about picking one random place at one random time, it's about measuring the yearly average temperature fluctuation across the entire planet.
So the planetary average is arbitrary? It's an average of temps from all over the planet, yeah? Not Pluto and Arakis.

Then what temperature do you think it should be outside your window. It's a real simple question.

----------

I want temperature/humidity/rainfall/etc to not disrupt humankind's current "status quo" in terms of where we live where we get our food.

Habitable areas stay habitable, farmable areas stay farmable, grazable areas stay grazable, etc. That's what I want, and what everyone should want.
I noticed there was no temperature in the midst of these words.
 

lannister80

macrumors 6502
Apr 7, 2009
476
17
Chicagoland
I noticed there was no temperature in the midst of these words.
Indeed. You're asking the wrong question (and you know it). Overall patterns of temperatures (and rainfall and humidity and wind and etc) are what are important.

Go ask an Ag major about the best temps for food production in currently farmed areas, or a city planner about best temps for livability in currently settled areas.

----------

I just heard on the radio today there is a mini ice age because of the sun.
Sun has been a lot quieter than is usual in this part of its 11 year cycle. Reduced UV radiation sitting the northern hemisphere can cause the jetstream to dip farther south than usual, causing very cold winters in Europe.

It's not like there's ONE factor that determines what our climate looks like. There are many (including solar radiation, carbon molecules in the atmosphere, etc)
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
Indeed. You're asking the wrong question (and you know it). Overall patterns of temperatures (and rainfall and humidity and wind and etc) are what are important.

Go ask an Ag major about the best temps for food production in currently farmed areas, or a city planner about best temps for livability in currently settled areas.
You go ask them. I'm asking you what you think the temperature should be. Let's add the temperature anywhere currently. You pick the spot and tell me what you think the temperature should be.

How about ten spots, or one hundred, hell even 1000. What temp do you think it should?
 

citizenzen

macrumors 65816
Mar 22, 2010
1,433
11,628
Perhaps Scotland will be warmer .... and drier. :)
I live in the far northwestern corner of California, an area known for it's cool and wet climate.

The western United States are currently experiencing a drought of historical proportions, reservoir levels are disturbingly low, water rationing measures are being put into place.

But hey ... it's all good. January has been sunny and warm. A couple of days ago it got up to 74º.

Time to break out the fun-time smiles.

:) :) :)

:rolleyes:

Be careful what you wish for ...
 

lannister80

macrumors 6502
Apr 7, 2009
476
17
Chicagoland
You go ask them. I'm asking you what you think the temperature should be. Let's add the temperature anywhere currently. You pick the spot and tell me what you think the temperature should be.

How about ten spots, or one hundred, hell even 1000. What temp do you think it should?
I have no idea. Whatever results in the least disruption to humankind, which means as close to historical norms (when areas were settled/set aside for farming hundreds/thousands of years ago) as possible. I don't know what that value is. Ask a climatologist/farmer/etc.
 

citizenzen

macrumors 65816
Mar 22, 2010
1,433
11,628
So the planetary average is arbitrary? It's an average of temps from all over the planet, yeah? Not Pluto and Arakis.

Then what temperature do you think it should be outside your window. It's a real simple question.
I'm really baffled by your posts.

Are you intentionally trying to shred every last vestige of your credibility?

It's a real simple question.
 

jkcerda

macrumors 6502a
Jun 10, 2013
682
39,009
Criminal Mexi Midget
You go ask them. I'm asking you what you think the temperature should be. Let's add the temperature anywhere currently. You pick the spot and tell me what you think the temperature should be.

How about ten spots, or one hundred, hell even 1000. What temp do you think it should?
the temperature is meaningless, simply buy your carbon credits & it will all go away :D
 

VulchR

macrumors 68020
Jun 8, 2009
2,329
10,254
Scotland
...
Then what temperature do you think it should be outside your window. It's a real simple question.
I'd settle for 72F and sunny in the summer and 50F in the winter, although I'd like to see some genuine snow. I am not sure how the question relates to global warming. FWIW it appears that some of the apparently missing warming has been accounted for (http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525). We are engaging in a recklessly uncontrolled, planet-wide experiment the outcome of which will affect many future generations. I think caution is in order.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
I'm really baffled by your posts.

Are you intentionally trying to shred every last vestige of your credibility?

It's a real simple question.
Lord almighty, what's with all the spinning. This question is easy. A 5 year old could answer it.

Warming is measured by temperature. Is it too high or not? If you think so, what should it be?

----------

the temperature is meaningless, simply buy your carbon credits & it will all go away :D
That's where this is going it seems.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
Do you understand what average means?

Again, a simple question.
An average of where? Mars, Neptune and krypton? Where are you talking about? Like an actual place.

Make it an equation.

(X+y+z....)/a=global warming. Or is it all just an abstract notion like a Picasso.

What should the temperature be?
 

zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,725
3,711
So the planetary average is arbitrary? It's an average of temps from all over the planet, yeah? Not Pluto and Arakis.

Then what temperature do you think it should be outside your window. It's a real simple question.
Something being a "simple question" doesn't change the fact that's complete nonsense and has absolutely no relevance to the discussion.

Who gives a **** what any one person "thinks" the temperature "should be" at the specific place they are at on the planet at a specific point in time? What does that have to do with anything?

We aren't talking about what one "thinks" the temperature "should be". We're talking about a measurable increase in the average global temperature over the past 30 or so years.




The graph speaks for itself.