McCain narrowing popular vote, leading in electoral vote

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Aug 20, 2008.

  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    Well, this is going in the wrong direction:

    My bold.

    The rest of the article goes on to attribute McCain's success to following Clinton's lead, and hammering Obama on his "inexperience" in defense and international affairs.

    I'd go further than that. McCain is running fear-mongering ads here in Ohio, replete with creepy music and narrators warning of the economic disaster which will presumably befall us under an Obama administration. They consistently mis-portray Obama's stances on issues.

    In short, these ads are wiping the floor with Obama.

    Which wouldn't be as bad if I'd at least see some Obama ads in response. But for all the money-raising this guy is doing, we're not seeing it...at least not in Ohio. And this is a battleground state!

    What we have seen in past months were lots of Obama's feel-good ads. We haven't seen much since. I fully expect next week's convention to be another feel-good party.

    Al Franken had a good point when he said that that's part of what got John Kerry off to a bad start in 2004. The Republicans had no problem conducting a hate-fest for their convention, and the Dems, he said, by being all nicey-nicey, looked like wussies. (Well, it rhymes with wussies, anyway.)

    I'm not suggesting the Dems go loco like the Republicans (remember Zell Miller?), but I do think they need to be more tough-talking and hard-hitting...especially Obama. They need to hammer McCain and talk about things like McCain's America, in which oil will continue to dominate, the war will go on interminably, and we'll all continue to get poorer.

    For better or worse, America likes a tough guy at its helm. That's how we got the current cowboy; he projected a tough image. Obama needs to be that kind of man. The Democrats need to be that kind of party.

    Or is that completely beyond them?

    Edit: And maybe it's even worse than we thought:

     
  2. geese macrumors 6502a

    geese

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    #2
    Its all about timing.

    Hopefully Obama's going to do a campaigning blitz in September/October time. really wipe the floor with Mcain when thhe time comes. Well, heres hoping anyway.
     
  3. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #3
    Yes?

    I was hoping to have a nice clean election this year, where the debate centered around the issues, but I'm beginning to doubt I'll see one of those in my lifetime.

    I'm hoping that after the VP is announced and the convention is over the Dems can shift around and start firing back. As close as you can tie Bush and McCain together, this election shouldn't even be close, yet somehow it is.

    The democrats seem to run their campaign based on the idea that voters are all completely independent thinkers and capable of making nuanced decisions when most people are heavily influenced by those around them and when the echo chambers manage to latch onto a repeated attack, such as flip-flopping or inexperience it starts to take hold and spread and the more the message is repeated the more people start to see only what they want to see. Once Kerry got the flip-flop label stuck the evidence was everywhere, and the inexperience mantra is going to haunt Obama as long as they sit back and don't manage to fight back.

    Obama seems to already have the backing of most who can use snopes and debunk the information circulating in the viral emails. Yet while I've seen at least one of them personally and heard about even more, I've yet to see, or hear about one that goes after McCain in a similar manner, unfortunately the people who usually check to debunk before forwarding are also those least likely to forward an email no matter how factually based it is.

    I do think the convention next week will give the Dems a boost, and hopefully the debates will provide another boost, but the Dems need to start fighting, instead of just reacting to the attacks.
     
  4. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #4
    Oh- because he's done such a good job so far? He needs to get in attack mode and fast. He needs to shred McCain's every talking point and stop holding back like he has.
     
  5. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #5
    I'm convinced the Dems just don't know how to play and win anymore. Their leadership sucks and Obama is carrying on like he's some choir boy.

    I do think he will kill McCain in debates though.
     
  6. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #6
    I wonder how much this public opinion shift towards McCain is a result of the Russian incursion in Georgia?
     
  7. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #7
    I'd bet that isn't even on the radar screens of most Americans.
     
  8. MonksMac macrumors 6502a

    MonksMac

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    #8
    Obama is a great candidate, and his positive attitude is great. However someone needs to knock some sense into Obama. He needs to shread McCain out the wazoo.(Truthfully of course.) If he gets tough he will have no problems in November. I hope he suprises us soon with a blitz of ads about McCain. if McCain wins I think I might move to Canada.:rolleyes:
     
  9. MonksMac macrumors 6502a

    MonksMac

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    #9
    Some Americans don't even know the names of all the states in the US, let alone foreign countries.;)
     
  10. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #10
    What do you mean, especially with the olympics going on. Of course we'd realize when the Russians invade Georgia, not only is it one of our 47 states, we hosted the games in Atlanta not too long ago. We need to fight the Russians out before they take Atlanta...

    what...there's a country called Georgia?
     
  11. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    This is my greatest fear right now, that Obama's so dedicated to the high road that he's gonna lose this thing. And if Obama's gonna be a goddam wimp, then someone's gotta take up the torch, like the Democratic party or MoveOn.org. Thing is, they don't have nearly as much money as McCain's campaign.

    Well, that is my hope too...that this is just the calm before the storm. Obama has to do something with all that cash he's raising...and it can't be more TV spots of the "Kumbaya" variety.

    Yes, he can attack McCain, do it forcefully and be truthful. That is an advantage he's got on his side, if only he chooses to use it.

    I think so, but I'm not positive about that. If you turn off your common sense and then listen to McCain, he can actually be pretty convincing...especially by the time he's done misrepresenting Obama's positions.

    Well, the first article seems to think the invasion did have something to do with it. McCain was on the campaign trail, talking tough about Russia, and Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. Though Obama did address the issue, he didn't sound nearly as forceful.
     
  12. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #12
    Wait until after the convention. Obama isn't an idiot, he's not going to blow his money on attacking McCain when the media coverage is focused on the Olympics and no one is listening. Half of an attack ad is the ad itself, the other half is the 24/7 news coverage of talking heads analyze the ad.
     
  13. MonksMac macrumors 6502a

    MonksMac

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    #13
    Well that does make sense. if no one is watching then blowing all his money on attack ads does Obama no good. He better get moving during and after the convention then.
     
  14. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #14
    This is the problem with Obama, he doesn't respond to attacks.
    Did Obama ever respond to this? Hillary initially attacked him on not doing his job in the senate (the attack that mccain is now recycling). I think this is an example of a valid criticism, not mudslinging.
     
  15. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #15
    Couple things. One, Zogby is a crap pollster. He is consistently wrong, and uses some methodology that many in the business do not consider sound. But of course the media, desperate for a close election to bring in viewers and the advertising revenue that comes along with viewers, is more than happy to glom onto this poll as evidence that the race is a close one and that we need to be watching their programming every second of the day.

    Most other polls that I have seen show Obama with a slim but statistically significant lead over McCain. And the pollster.com site which averages all the polls still has Obama up over McCain by a slim margin.

    Besides, it doesn't matter who wins the popular vote. It's all about the electoral college.

    Two, McCain's advertising blitz is somewhat out of necessity. Because he is going to be accepting public financing during the general election, he must spend everything he's got before he becomes the official nominee of his party in about two weeks. He's got a significant amount of cash that needs to be burned through, and he's shown that he is more than willing to make a mockery out of himself by spending it on the kinds of attack ads he previously said he would eschew.

    Obama, on the other hand, can roll his money over after the convention because he is not bound by the rules surrounding public financing. Obama and the DNC will have financial parity with McCain and the RNC -- the first time this has happened in many election cycles. Once the conventions are over and McCain is limited in the amount he can spend, watch for Obama to hit him hard and often.

    After all, McCain is a self-admitted war criminal.
     
  16. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #16
    That would be an interesting line of questioning especially given the current administration's stance on torture and the fact that McCain seems to have stopped speaking out against it.

    Either he has to admit that torture works and his signed confession is the truth, or he has to admit that people lie to get out of being tortured. If it's the latter it just makes our torturing either worthless (getting a lot of false information that we don't do anything with) or a waste of time (pursuing false leads confessed to just to stop the torture).

    Of course if this were brought up by the Obama campaign I have a feeling it would backfire spectacularly and using it as a method to try and discredit McCain would probably hurt the Dems more than help.
     
  17. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #17
    Which is why Obama surrogates need to do the dirty work. Force McCain to admit either that he wasn't tortured and his confession is valid, or force him to admit that many of the confessions coming out of Gitmo, Bagrahm, and Abu Graihb cannot be relied upon as truth.

    I mean, it sounds like the stuff that went on at the Hanoi Hilton was nothing worse than some fraternity pranks. Plus I hear they were fed couscous... er rice.
     
  18. JG271 macrumors 6502a

    JG271

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    #18
    I don't think of preliminary polls are much to go by really. I'm waiting for the conventions, running mate choices and debates. They could change everything... in favour of either candidate.
     
  19. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #19
    Naturally, only hours after I post this topic does this article appear:

    Again, my bold.

    And that's a little more like it. Hope this is a sign of things to come.
     
  20. Sky Blue Guest

    Sky Blue

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    #20
    McCain is spending a lot of money on advertising right now, while Obama is focusing on building his turnout operations in the swing states. The former is likely to have a short-term impact on polling, but the latter's effects won't be fully apparent until election day. My guess is that Obama will start hitting back hard closer to the election -- it IS possible to peak too soon, after all, and Obama's campaign staff already demonstrated that they understand this. The only risk in such a strategy is that McCain's negative narrative of Obama will become lithified if Obama doesn't hit back soon enough. I doubt that'll happen, though, because of where we are in the election news cycle -- Obama's gonna make a VP selection by Saturday at the latest.

    I think Obama's poised to get a post-convention bounce that's bigger than most candidates get. He'll get the normal convention bounce (5-7 points, historically), and he'll quell a lot of lot of racial fears when it's apparent that Obama has chosen a lily-white Vice President instead of Louis Farrakhan or Ludacris.

    Also don't forget, Obama was on vacation the last week and out of the spotlight. If you've seen any of his town hall meetings this week, he's been much more aggressive.
     
  21. heaven macrumors 6502a

    heaven

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    #21
    Although I am observing the US election from abroad, I still think that Obama knows what he is doing and he is just waiting for the right time to play out his cards. I wish that the majority would vote for change and improve Americas image in Europe :rolleyes: But thats just my humble opinion
     
  22. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #22
    obama is going to send out a text with his vp choice today or tomorrow. he plans to campaign the VP nod of saturday so i think he's already made the choice.
    if you text VP to 62262 then you'll get the text before its on TV.
    if Obama wants to win he's going to have to run negative attacks. so far, an effective charge is saying mccain = bush.
    but i think what this is going to boil down to is 11th hour attacks and responses, so obama better get his head in the game.

    one thing i heard Obama brag during his town hall today is that Bill Clinton created 23 million jobs and increased the average income by $6000.
    THIS IS TOTAL CRAP!
    when hillary would say anything about bill's accomplishments, Obama would say "that's the politics of the past, we need change, let's not move backwards"
    what changed?
     
  23. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #23
    That's my secondary fear, that by the time he does start attacking back, it'll be too late.

    I don't know about this part. Seems the last few elections the post-Democratic convention bounce is simply eradicated two weeks later by the post-Republican convention bounce.

    And why do the Republicans always hold their convention after the Dems? Howzit they always manage to get the last word?

    :p
     
  24. Sky Blue Guest

    Sky Blue

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  25. SactoGuy18 macrumors 68030

    SactoGuy18

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    #25
    Here's the problems with Senator Obama:

    1) A lot of people still haven't gotten over his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
    2) People are finding out he's woefully inexperienced in too many issues.
    3) His performance at the Saddleback conference last Saturday turned off a lot of people.
    4) Who knows what kind of insanity the Senator Clinton's camp will pull off at the last minute.
     

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