Message to Trump: What will an invasion of Iran bring us?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by niji, May 19, 2019.

  1. niji, May 19, 2019
    Last edited: May 19, 2019

    niji Contributor

    niji

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    #1
    "After George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Bremer, the second Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq (governor of the occupation, in other words), is often considered the man most responsible for the dissolution of civil society in Iraq and the rise of sectarian strife. In the Boston Globe, Neil Swidey (not behind a paywall, as with most of its articles) explores just how much responsibility Bremer, who he calls “at once well intentioned, infuriating, and tragic,” bears.

    Swidey quotes from an article he wrote in 2003, in which Middle East specialist As’ad AbuKhalil said: “The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan gave us the Taliban. The American occupation of Saudi Arabia gave us bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The Israeli occupation of Lebanon gave us Hezbollah. Let us see what the American occupation of Iraq is going to give us.”

    We all know the answer to that: the Islamic State — perhaps the most authoritarian, cruelest, and powerful terrorist organization of all time."

    Swidey wrote his statement in 2003.

    (above is taken from this link: https://fpif.org/just-much-paul-bremer-blamed-rise-islamic-state/ )
     
  2. Zenithal, May 19, 2019
    Last edited: May 19, 2019

    Zenithal macrumors 604

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    #2
    That was written long before the Islamic State was known as the Islamic State. The inference then was that the Islamic State of whatever would be a Shi'a group and not a Sunni led group, that practiced and proselytized a very specific and narrow variant of Sunni Islam.

    Saudi Arabia is mostly Sunni. The majority of Saudi's Sunni followers follow a strict definition of the Quaran known as Wahhabi. Wahhabism is more or less the reason Saudi government officials and the Monarch directly or indirectly sponsor global terrorism. It's simply kosher for western nations to keep doing business.

    IS started out in the late 1990s and was an off shoot of Al Qaeda. In 2004, the group split from Al Qaeda. The kicker is that Al Qaeda considers IS extremist. The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy. Al Qaeda is a Sunni terrorist group.

    A war with Iran would result in anywhere from 1-20M in total deaths of Americans, Iranians, Israelis, and Saudis. It also means not having any support from Europe due to the last cluster-**** of a war. It also means Russia aiding Iran via proxy. While Russia does business with other nations in the region, the water access via Iran and Russia's ability to spread their foreign interests in the area discreetly is a major MUST HAVE in their book.


    Bolton and Bibi want a war. I don't think Trump wants a war. It'll be used against because he's been quoted that he's against war and that HRC would start wars. I don't think his true supports want one either. It's time the world stops hanging yellow ribbons everywhere.
     
  3. Solomani macrumors 68040

    Solomani

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    #3
    If he's faithful to his campaign promise, then surely Trump doesn't want a war with Iran. BUT….. he also was stupid enough to surround himself with neo-con warmongers like Bolton.

    Trump is weak-willed and his convictions always vacillate. He will cave in to his hawkish advisors, who are ten times smarter and more clever than him. He will also capitulate to the wishes of Tel Aviv and Riyadh. It is written.
     
  4. shyam09 macrumors 68020

    shyam09

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    #4
    @niji

    There should be a little cog above your post next to "most liked posts." Click that and you'll see an option to edit the title if you want.
     
  5. jkcerda, May 19, 2019
    Last edited: May 19, 2019

    jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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  6. Plutonius macrumors 604

    Plutonius

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    #6
    I thought he gave us ISIL :p.
     
  7. Vanilla Ice macrumors 6502

    Vanilla Ice

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    #7
    Trump and congress will not allow a war with Iran, unless Iran does something reeeeaaaalllyyyy bad to force our hand.
     
  8. niji thread starter Contributor

    niji

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    #8
    thanks so much. i never noticed that little cog wheel before. most obliged.
     
  9. Sydde macrumors 68020

    Sydde

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    #9
    Sorry, not, Daesh arose out of the Bushes.
     
  10. bambooshots macrumors 65816

    bambooshots

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    #10
    Thanks to his vast experience as a community organizer, he mislabeled them as "JV.""

    Thanks Obama!
     
  11. Solomani, May 19, 2019
    Last edited: May 21, 2019

    Solomani macrumors 68040

    Solomani

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    #11
    Wrong. Trump can start a war (undeclared) if he wanted to. Presidents like Trump have ordered bombing campaigns (against Syria last year) without asking for permission from Congress, POTUS won't even wait for a Congressional declaration of war (DoW is outdated tradition anyways).

    It's as easy as Trump calling the Pentagon to commence the bombing or missile strikes.
     
  12. A.Goldberg macrumors 68020

    A.Goldberg

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    #12
    Unless Iran does something very provocative I don’t think we’ll be going to war. There isn’t much support by most of America nor our allies outside of the Middle East. I’m sure Israel would love to see Iran topple but I don’t think they’d ideally want to deal with the consequences of war. Saudi Arabia is probably the biggest proponent of conflict.

    I don’t think Iran wants war either as they likely realize they will be ruined as a result. That said, there are radical proxies who could ignite a conflict beyond the control of Iran.

    Today a missile apparently landed near the US embassy in Iraq earlier today, fired by Iran backed forces. I suspect there may be some escalation, but hope war can be avoided.
     
  13. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #13
    Because trump has never been at odds with what he was quoted of saying in the past

    My prediction....we will go to war as a distraction of the domestic issues trump will face and to distract from the election. He will use war as a means to do things he otherwise couldn't
     
  14. Zenithal macrumors 604

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    #14
    Right, and the minute a surge of US forces are killed, it'll hurt him. Won't help him. People like saying wartime presidents get reelected, but this is 2019, not 2004. Though if the people want a war, they better get ready to say farewell to their teenage sons and daughters who signed up or will sign up. Make it a grand occasion, because it may be the last time they'll see them alive.
     
  15. sim667 macrumors 65816

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    #15
    FTFY
     
  16. TheFluffyDuck macrumors 6502

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    #16
    The middle east can sort out its own problems. The West has no business to get involved IMO. As for humanitarian goals, let the local region put up its hand to help its own neighbours for a change.

    The cynical solution as far as I am concerned is everybody buys a solar panel and an electric car. First it stops climate change, and second we stop putting money into the hands of middle eastern oil barons that siphon some off to fund terrorism. It's a win, win! Then when nobody buys the oil, they can all go back to funding global jihad off the profits from "egg-wisks" or what ever their second commodity of non-consequence is. Good luck with that.

    There is no benefit from getting involved in a regional war over religious tribalism.
     
  17. DearthnVader macrumors 6502a

    DearthnVader

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    #17
    The Iran issue is sticky, not only our history of failed CIA operations that lead to an extremist overthrow, but also the fact that Russia supplies many arms to Iran.

    If Trump is beholden to Russia, as many claim, then he would have to get an OK from the Kremlin before launching military operations in Iran.

    Russia may not want to lose out on future arms sales to Iran, but if military operations were limited to an air campaign to try and weaken or destroy Iran nuclear facilities, without the overthrow of a government friendly to Russian military arms sales, then Russia may like to see it's SAM units in some real action vs. western air power.

    Many in the US MIC may also welcome the chance to prove their technologies.

    That could be a win/win that could lead us into a limited war with Iran, and I have to admit, I'm rather curious to see the outcome myself.

    Overall, tho, I thought the deal Obama and John Kerry struct was a good one, and we should have honored it, so long as Iran did. Trump pulling us out of it can only lead to wars, or a nuclear arms race in the middle east.
     
  18. Huntn macrumors P6

    Huntn

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    #18
    MR ENTERTAINER wants to keep us entertained at all costs...
    How Donald Trump May Push America into a War with Iran
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/how-donald-trump-may-push-america-war-iran-57712

    The Trump administration’s frenzied provocations could lead America to the brink of a conflict with Iran—one that almost no one actually wants.

    So, why are we reading about this in the newspaper? One possibility is that the war hawks in Trump’s White House want to publicly signal to Iran and the international community that the administration is prepared to use force in response to Iranian misbehavior. Another possibility is that the anonymous national-security officials who leaked this have grown uneasy about National Security Advisor John Bolton’s determination to attack Iran and change its regime. They might see his recent bureaucratic maneuvers, including a highly unusual visit to CIA headquarters and a recent incident in which he deliberately exaggerated raw intelligence in order to depict a long-scheduled carrier deployment to the Gulf as a deterrent threat to Iran, as dangerously provocative posturing that could unintentionally start a war. A third possibility is that both of these are happening simultaneously.
     
  19. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #20
    ISIS formed in 2013
     
  20. appleisking macrumors 6502a

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    #21
    It was not Obama who destabilized the region by invading Iraq. Bush formed ISIL period.
     
  21. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #22
    Obama invaded Libya/Syria on top of keeping up what bush started, no matter what you say ISIS formed under OBama
     
  22. appleisking macrumors 6502a

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    #23
    Yes ISIL was formed under Obama but never would have been formed had it not been the invasion of Iraq under Bush. Ergo Bush is responsible for ISIL.
     
  23. jkcerda macrumors 6502a

    jkcerda

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    #24
    please........... Obama stayed in the Bush wars, he owns ISIS no matter what you guys claim.
     
  24. Vanilla Ice macrumors 6502

    Vanilla Ice

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    #25
    I know this already. However, Iran is no Syria.
     

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68 May 19, 2019