Millions of voters leaving the dems for the GOP frontrunner or Why Trump will be our next president

Meister

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Bug-Creator

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@Meister

Doesn't take much to understand that low turnout in D primaries and high one for Rs are really two pretty different things and that the numbers of democratic alligned voters staying home but actually going out for the rep primaries is pretty low.

@aaronvan

I'm quite sure there are many many republicans who would never vote for Trumps and the other way round.

Real question is how would Clinton do against Trump ? Sanders vs. Trump ? Clinton vs. Cruz ? Sanders vs,. Cruz ?

A polls suggest that Clinton or Sanders will beat Trump or Cruz with varying margins.
 

Bug-Creator

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Trumps momentum might be very strong within a certain loud group, he still wouldhave to impress a large part of the silence majority to win.
 

ericgtr12

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Just like the source of this claim (Breibart) the only people supporting Trump are rabid right wing loons. While this electrifies that base, once the General is in full swing he's going to tank because regular people can't stand the guy. His negatives (even compared to Hillary) are historically off the charts which makes him a gift to the Democratic party, who would've likely otherwise faced a real uphill battle against a Bush or Rubio. It's likely going to be a landslide victory for Hillary and they have nobody but themselves to blame.
 

jkcerda

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Just like the source of this claim (Breibart) the only people supporting Trump are rabid right wing loons. While this electrifies that base, once the General is in full swing he's going to tank because regular people can't stand the guy. His negatives (even compared to Hillary) are historically off the charts which makes him a gift to the Democratic party, who would've likely otherwise faced a real uphill battle against a Bush or Rubio. It's likely going to be a landslide victory for Hillary and they have nobody but themselves to blame.
she can't even win the nomination against an old socialist, all Trump needs to do is show the people how HE bought hillary :D
 

rdowns

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she can't even win the nomination against an old socialist, all Trump needs to do is show the people how HE bought hillary :D
Put up or shut up! Show me a bill Trump wanted her to support or a policy while she was at State that he advocated for. Just one.
 

jkcerda

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Put up or shut up! Show me a bill Trump wanted her to support or a policy while she was at State that he advocated for. Just one.
that is for Trump to know and for us to find out, we must elect him to see what's in him :D

if you think people donate money to politicians just because they are "cute" I have a bridge for sale.
[doublepost=1461684236][/doublepost]
Will that be the Trump 2.0 reboot?
kind of like Etch-A-Sketch Romney? no idea I do NOT see Trump winning if he continues down the current path.
 

ericgtr12

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that is for Trump to know and for us to find out, we must elect him to see what's in him :D

if you think people donate money to politicians just because they are "cute" I have a bridge for sale.
[doublepost=1461684236][/doublepost]
kind of like Etch-A-Sketch Romney? no idea I do NOT see Trump winning if he continues down the current path.
We agree. It's the only path he knows and it's the only reason the extremists like him. He'll attempt to shift course but then he'll surely launch into a late night misogynistic Twitter tirade against Hillary. He can't help it, it's who he is and we've definitely already seen "what's in him".
 
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jkcerda

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We agree. It's the only path he knows and it's the only reason the extremists like him. He'll attempt to shift course but then he'll surely launch into a late night misogynistic Twitter tirade against Hillary. He can't help it, it's who he is and we've definitely already seen "what's in him".
he might surprise you, but first he still needs to win the nomination, got a feeling the GOP will block him there.
 
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thermodynamic

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And, of course, the independents that will vote for Trump instead of Hillary, Bernie, or either!

Still, does one poll make a nation? Or are Democrats knowing that the memes that have said over the years that Trump is very liberal having an ironically inverse, resonant effect? :)
[doublepost=1461687664][/doublepost]
he might surprise you, but first he still needs to win the nomination, got a feeling the GOP will block him there.
It's far from being over.

Especially if Paul Ryan gets to act like the SCOTUS circa 2000, the responsibility and aftermath will be on his shoulders:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-nicholas-phillips/doomsday-savior-how-paul-ryan_b_9474788.html
 

MadeTheSwitch

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I am trying to have breakfast and you are turning my stomach already , Hillary does NOT belong in the W/O, not even as an intern. make it Bernie VS trump :D
Millions of (additional) voters disagree. We don't make the second place finisher the nominee just because his supporters want it. Sorry. If it was a Bernie vs. Trump race I would turn off the TV. Cannot stand the bloviating that either of them do. "What....this..campaign...is.......about" zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Bernie needs a new script.
 

MadeTheSwitch

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It will be interesting revisiting this post in November. Completely left out of your discussion is that Hillary has more votes than any other candidate in the race and that many Republicans won't vote for Trump. In fact, some have even said they would vote for Hillary. The majority of people in minority groups won't be voting for Trump either, so your only hope is if Democrats stay home, while Republicans do not and hold their nose voting for Trump anyway. That seems like a rather risky thing to pin your hopes on.
 

ericgtr12

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It will be interesting revisiting this post in November. Completely left out of your discussion is that Hillary has more votes than any other candidate in the race and that many Republicans won't vote for Trump. In fact, some have even said they would vote for Hillary. The majority of people in minority groups won't be voting for Trump either, so your only hope is if Democrats stay home, while Republicans do not and hold their nose voting for Trump anyway. That seems like a rather risky thing to pin your hopes on.
While I agree, if I were to look back at my posts here only months ago I recall saying something like "Trump will never win the Republican nomination, even they're not that crazy" and now look. :eek:
 

bradl

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Jun 16, 2008
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Wow, how the gullible are so easily... gullible.

Let's drop some facts on you, courtesy of Nate Silver et. al at FiveThirtyEight:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election
Mar 18, 2016 at 6:30 AM
By Harry Enten

Republican turnout is up and Democratic turnout is down in the 2016 primary contests so far. That has some Republicans giddy for the fall; here’s an example, from a March 1 Washington Times article:

Republicans continued to shatter turnout records in their presidential primaries and caucuses Tuesday, while Democrats lagged behind in what analysts said was a clear indication of an enthusiasm gap heading into the general election.

And some commentators are saying that Democrats should be nervous. From The Huffington Post, last month:

But Democratic Party elites shouldn’t be high-fiving each other. They should be very, very worried. In primary after primary this cycle, Democratic voters just aren’t showing up.​

But Democrats shouldn’t worry. Republicans shouldn’t celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.

Primary turnout isn’t related to the general election outcome

As first written up by PolitiFact, the party that had higher turnout in the primary won the national popular vote three times and lost three times. If you look at the Electoral College, the party that had the higher turnout in the primary won four times. That can hardly be described as predictive.

Let’s dig a little deeper, though. Voters in many states can participate in a primary only if they are registered members of the party. Democrats usually have a registration advantage over Republicans, so it follows that Democrats usually have higher turnout. Indeed, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in five of the six primary elections in our data set, including 1980 and 1988; the Democratic candidate lost by more than 7 percentage points in the general election in both of those years. Could it be that what matters is the change in turnout from the last time there was a competitive primary?

The change in turnout doesn’t predict the general election either …

Looking at the change in the number of votes, we see the opposite of what we might expect. In four of five(1) elections in our data set, the party with the larger raw vote increase in the primary lost the national popular vote in the fall. For the Electoral College, the party with the larger vote increase lost three of five times.

Finally, we can look at the percentage change in primary turnout. It’s easier for the party that has a higher base of registered voters to have a greater increase (or decrease) in raw vote turnout. Percentage change helps control for that.

… neither does the percentage change in primary turnout

Here we see the same story. The party whose primary turnout improved the most won the national popular vote in the general election two of five times and won the Electoral College three of five times. In 2000, Democrats saw a large decrease in primary turnout, while Republicans saw a large increase. That fall, we had one of the closest elections ever.

You might have noticed in the tables above that the Democrats in 2008 had the largest turnout and the largest increase in turnout. I suspect that many of the commentators who think the Republican candidate in the fall will benefit from higher turnout in the Republican primaries are remembering how Barack Obama easily won the general election in 2008. It turns out, however, that this pattern doesn’t hold when we look back in time.

Still, the 2008 campaign is instructive in another way. Democratic primary turnout was high because it was a very competitive contest. People turn out to vote when they think their vote may make a difference. Let’s re-examine the raw turnout for each party and the popular vote margin by which the nominee beat the runner-up in the primary.

Competitive presidential primaries lead to higher turnout

In five of the six years in our data set, the party that had a smaller vote share margin between its nominee and runner-up — that is, the one with the more competitive contest — had higher turnout. Indeed, the difference in margin for the two winners and the difference in raw turnout for each party had a fairly high correlation of -0.81. The only year in which turnout was higher in the less competitive primary was in 1976, when Jimmy Carter won just 40 percent of the primary vote and had serious competitors until the end of the primary calendar. Both sides were quite competitive that year.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that Republican turnout is higher than Democratic turnout this year. Hillary Clinton is a commanding front-runner on the Democratic side, while the front-runner on the Republican side has earned only one-third of the vote and less than half the delegates allocated so far. Voters are turning out for the more competitive contest.

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  1. We lose 1976 from our set because we don’t have data from the previous election with which to compare it.
So your stating that because voter turnout is higher with the Reds than the Blues, because there were nearly 20 candidates to choose from in the primaries, that the Blues are going to get trounced in the General election is a farce. You should consider holding fire until the primaries are done and the march towards the general election has started.

BL.