NATO: give Vladimir Putin free rein over Estonia.

At least their military leaders are speaking out against it.

Unfortunately with you calling Estonians "swine" and the country a "puny little flyspeck" you are demonstrating exactly the kind of behavior that you are criticizing the Estonians for.

 

Having a hard time here. You support an overt racist for President but have issues when some "puny" little country is racist.

And the 1950s are over dude, we can't act the bully and prosper anymore.

 

And you think abandoning the Baltic states to invasion or annexation by a revanchist Russia would be telling the rest of the world how great the USA is? Do you think abrogating the NATO treaty would be putting American interests first?

There have always been problems around places where large numbers of troops, especially foreign troops, are stationed. Young men; released from tight discipline, exposed to alcohol and women, are all but certain to get into trouble. Guess how many GIs were convicted of rape in Britain during WWII? Guess how many bar fights and DUI arrests happen around bases here in the US?

This is one of your sillier rants. And thats saying something.

 

If Russia attacked a NATO state then all of Nato would be obligated to fight Russia. Ukraine is not part of Nato, but the same kind of attack by Russia there would likely result in the US and the rest of NATO being drawn into a war. And as for when they became our charge it was when we let them into NATO.

 

Quite possible that some of these incedents allready are stage 1 of the hybrid warfare.

Also don't forget that the baltics have strong Russian minorities allready causing quite some internal issues.

 

Let me explain military geopolitics 101 to you:

Russia could probably militarily overrun Estonia in less than 36 hours. And while that would probably result in a worldwide diplomatic crapstorm; you can bet your bottom dollar that the next morning there would be Republicans going on Fox News to tell us we don't need to get into a war with Russia over Estonia.

And they'd actually be right. We don't have to get into a war over Estonia. We don't have to get into a war over France, or Britain, or Mexico.

But while Vladimir Putin might calculate that his country could deal with the economic sanctions and diplomatic backlash of invading Estonia - he'd think twice about ordering his troops to actually fire on US military personnel. Because he'd lose.

In 1938-39 Britain and France gave guarantees to Czechoslovakia and Poland against Nazi Germany. But they were all but worthless, because Britain and France had no means of putting troops into those countries. Hitler figured that neither Britain or France would actually get into a war over those countries. He was right about Czechoslovakia - he was wrong about Poland.

Putting US military assets in Poland and Estonia now - before Russia starts playing games, raises the stakes to a level where Putin, and his Generals, realize the game isn't worth it.

 

Knowledge Enables Capability.

 

Man I don't think you're going to explain military geopolitics to aaronvan I think he has a bit more experience than most of us in that subject .

 

I always enjoy reading those RAND corporation reports. They unfailing provide a highly informed level of technical military detail. And I'm sure after many years of reading similar RAND Corporation reports, it must have puzzled Presidents Johnson and Nixon greatly that we kept losing the Vietnam War.

I'm not being cute about that. RAND is probably absolutely correct about the slim military chances for NATO mounting a successful defense of the Baltics. But that misses the point: By the time the Russian tanks rolled, we've all already lost. The trick is understanding the mindset of your opponent (in this case Vladimir Putin) and get inside his Decision Cycle (OODA loop) - and outflank him before he decides to act.

And Obama and the NATO military have done that, admirably well. Those nasty, racist Estonians are giving us free parking for a couple of brigades worth of surplus tanks. And we get to give a couple hundred GIs a few months of interesting overseas duty doing fluid changes on them. Costing us a few million dollars they probably found stuck in the Pentagon couches. Compared to what it would cost us to maintain three or four armored brigades there - forces we actually need much more someplace else.

Yes: Putin might try the "persecuted Russian minority" gambit in Estonia. But even the possibility of coming into contact with the handful of US military stationed in that country makes serious meddling too costly, even for Putin.