Newt Gingrich on the View: Hillary Will Win

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by stevento, Apr 29, 2008.

  1. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #1
    Barbara Walters: "I'm hearing Hillary can't get the delegates... She can't win"
    Newt: "She's got more votes... I don't see how they can have a convention without [MI/FL]"
    http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4748741

    This is not about pledged delegates; if it was she'd be gone by now. What if hillary gets ahead in popular vote and supers decide they don't want a muddled nomination?
    Without FL/MI she's 504,772 votes behind and with FL/MI she's 111,546 votes AHEAD of Obama.
    With or without FL/MI its possible.
    And then you couldn't make much of a case that she stole the election because she would get more raw votes and she would win the election.
     
  2. walangij macrumors 6502

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    #2
    Sure its still possible, if it'll happen we will see. I just hope that MI isn't a big sticking point, Obama wasn't even on the ballot so most young people who would've voted for him just went to class or work instead of waiting in lines.

    If you include the caucus estimates then Obama is actually 600k ahead w/o FL+MI and 11k behind w/FL+MI which makes her "lead" nothing.

    The idea of a moratorium on gas tax for the summer has me looking at Clinton and going hmmm...and not in a good way.
     
  3. zap2 macrumors 604

    zap2

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    #3
    Wait a hilary post by stevento, thats something new :rolleyes:
     
  4. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    nope ABC includes caucuses.

    heres some math:
    2,300,000 people voted in PA and they had 158 delegates
    IN has 72 delegates so by that proportion we can say 1.05 million people will vote in IN
    lets say she nets 100,000 votes there, not to far fetched
    NC has 115 delegates so lets say 1,656,000 vote there and she nets 150,000
    without FL and MI she just cut his popular vote lead in half.
     
  5. trebblekicked macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #5
    Hillary supporters clinging to words of hope from Newt Gingrich.

    I know politics makes strange bedfellows, but sheesh...
     
  6. trebblekicked macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #6
    Link

    Stevento, repeat after me:

    The popular vote is NOT a metric upon which the nomination is settled.

    Forgive my language, but Clinton's vote totals are ********. There's no other way to say it. They're ********. Two unsanctioned elections, neither of which had campaigning, one of which didn't even have Obama's name on the ballot. Under no circumstances should these votes count towards anything.

    Had the Florida and Michigan primaries been sanctioned, and their delegates count, would Obama still get zero votes in Michigan? Would he not have campaigned actively in Florida?

    And is just giving the number of caucus voters to the winner a fair representation of THAT state? Why not appropriate the popular vote according to the caucus results? That would be more fair than saying a thousand people voted in Iowa.

    You're free to support your candidate, but frankly this "We're winning in the popular vote" claim the Clinton campaign is putting out is disingenuous at best, and a crock of **** at worst. It's cheating. Plain and simple.
     
  7. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #7
    and 111,546 is less than half of the uncommitted vote in MI. If you only give Obama half of that then he's ahead in the popular vote. Of course since there were no other names on the ballot it's entirely probable that some democrats went to the polls and voted for Hillary due to lack of choice so giving her 100% of her vote probably shouldn't happen either.

    Her best hope is a close loss in NC and maybe a 5-10 point win in ID. Chances are that it'll be a 5-10 point win for Obama in NC with a close election in ID. The only way she'll keep the popular vote is to count all of her MI votes and give none of them to Obama, how is that representing the will of the voters?
     
  8. walangij macrumors 6502

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    #8
    Correct, but they don't include the estimates, can't not count those or those democratic voters would be disenfranchised :cool:


    Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)
    Obama 14,994,998
    Clinton 15,116,613
    spread: +121,615 Clinton

    Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA Obama 15,329,082
    Clinton 15,340,475
    spread: +11,393 Clinton

    Take away MI and Obama has a 206,964 spread

    Take away MI+FL and Obama has a 501,466 spread

    Now add IA, NV, ME, WA estimates and they give Obama an extra 100,000 advantage on top of his leads. Brings him up to 600k+


    If you give Obama the uncommitted vote in MI add on 238,168 to his lead, or 1/2 of it 119,084 like some people have suggested.
     
  9. zap2 macrumors 604

    zap2

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    #9
    some on now, you can't honestly tell me that you think MI/FL should count?

    They never should have had the primary when they did, they did to listen to the Dem Party. I do think their votes are very important, but they should have followed the rules. To count them toward Clinton is crazy, Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI, and you're counting that? Come on!
     
  10. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #10
    Ah perfect, Newt Gingrich. He's a swell guy.

    I hate him.
     
  11. vniow macrumors G4

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    I'm so convinced now she'll win now that someone who is still relevant in today's politics would go on an esteemed talk show such as the View to tell us what's really going on.
     
  12. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #12
  13. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #13
    well we've takled about that but yes. i'll sum my arguement here: its more important to count all the votes than to punish politicians' bad behavior because elections are about people, not politicians.

    neither is pledged delegates alone.
    This is going to come down to who has more momentum at the end of this. If this was all about the pledged, it'd be over.
     
  14. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

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    #14
    I want Obama to win, but even when Obama looked like he was surely going to win, Hilary managed to make things confuzzling.

    Personally, I'd rather have Obama or McCain. Yes, you read that correctly.
     
  15. NAG macrumors 68030

    NAG

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    #15
    I don't want McCain because he looks even more out of touch with the current issues than anyone else that is running (I'm not counting Ron Paul because he has no chance of being nominated).

    I prefer Obama over Hillary. That doesn't mean I'm going to vote for Bush Lite if Obama doesn't get nominated due to back room politics.
     
  16. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #16
    you say that now, but when obama gives a great inspirational speech telling you to vote for hillary, i bet you'll do it.

    the politics of supers overturning the pledged if hillary wins the popular is "back room politics"?
    i call it "democratic politics"
     
  17. trebblekicked macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #18
    you're quoting newt gingrich for solace.

    if that doesn't mean it's over, i don't know what does.
     
  18. NAG macrumors 68030

    NAG

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    Dude, you'd be happy if Iran invaded us as long as they instated Hillary as president so why don't you stop this mindless Hillary chanting and actually look at the political system. Either you're brainwashed and naive or you're making a really elaborate satire.
     
  19. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #20
    I'm getting sick of this endless BS Hillary cheerleading. stevento- support who you like, but get your head out of the sand, please.
     
  20. Full of Win macrumors 68030

    Full of Win

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  21. walangij macrumors 6502

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    #22
    Fixed it for you :rolleyes:

    One of them needs to stop, nothing against Hillary but she's too gimmicky these days. Moratorium on gas tax? Windfall profits make it up? Come on? Really? Who came up with this idea, her ads in IN that bleed into MI make it seem like Obama is out of touch w/ the economy and the working class, but I'm pretty sure the working class, especially those in IN with horrible roads in certain areas would rather have nicer infrastructure than saving $0.18 a gallon. Her proposal has bad idea all over it, Obama says he has sound judgement, he shows it here by rejecting this proposal.


    Look how divisive HC is, she's creating a furrow (temporary) in the Democratic party. I imagine 4 years of her will be very divisive politics. But still I'd vote for her over GWB jr.
     
  22. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #23
    yeh i dreamed the other night that he went into the GOP convention and got the nomination out from under McCain in a party-wide delegates' revolt. i woke up screaming, realizing that given a choice between Clintons The Media Sequel and Gingrich The Contract Part Two, I might have to take my passport and my stash of chocolate and bid farewell to the USA while some other country will still cut me a visa.
     
  23. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #24
    lol, disenfranchised. what a load of ********.

    those voters in FL and MI disenfranchised themselves when the ****tards they voted in to state offices decided to move the primaries up and break party rules.

    if the voters gave a ****, they could have gotten the primaries back to normal times so they would have counted.
     
  24. walangij macrumors 6502

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    #25
    To be fair, I'm pretty sure they didn't vote people into office because they promised "We'll be like Iowa and have the candidates make us important blah blah...". Even so, as a citizen of MI, I think that the MI numbers should be mostly ignored.
     

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