Obama/Biden shoot ahead in latest CBS polls, 8 point lead

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Cleverboy, Sep 1, 2008.

  1. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #1
    I'd just finished hearing that they were statistically tied, and that the top of the ticket comparisons alone had Obama leading by a smidge. Suddenly, Obama/Biden shoot ahead? Crazy. I like the news on the Independent front especially. Seems like McCain has started having people lose faith in him for some reason.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/01/opinion/polls/main4405106.shtml

    And in the "room for improvement" category:
    Full poll details in PDF form:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug08bPostDemConv.pdf

    Seems like the initial surprise of the Palin announcement has worn off. Curious to see whether the GOP gets a bounce after the convention or whether its all downhill from here.

    ~ CB
     
  2. és: macrumors 6502a

    és:

    #2
    All I saw was 'Obama... shoot... head' - my heart was in my mouth.
     
  3. JG271 macrumors 6502a

    JG271

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    #4
    Interesting indeed, and good news for Obama supporters. Gallup poll also put him 8 points ahead.

    I don't think the GOP convention will boost poll ratings all that much, i can't think of anything particularly new and groundbreaking that they can do or say. However, the convention might increase or decrease Republican voters' doubts about Sarah Palin, if that is what the low poll ratings have been caused by.
     
  4. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #5
    historically there's always been a "convention bounce" in the polls which fades away in a few weeks. We can expect the republicans to get a bounce from their convention too, so don't be too shocked if the polls look different than today in a couple of weeks
     
  5. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #6
    Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.
     
  6. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #7
    People had been saying that the Democratic bounce had evaporated after the first day. Things seem to be changing so quickly in the race though. This is almost like watching a gigantic soap-opera. I SWARE to GOD, if someone gets all the photos to this and creates a gigantic picture book from Primaries to Inauguration... and talks in depth about everything that happened... I mean WOW. This is the greatest story ever told... although, if you said, "true story", people would have a hard time believing you.
    This is true. :)

    ~ CB
     
  7. BoyBach macrumors 68040

    BoyBach

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    #8

    I agree, if I were Prime Minister part of my reform of the election process in the UK would be the banning of polls in the run up to elections. They serve no purpose other than to give a lazy journalist something to write / talk about instead of doing some proper journalism / reporting.
     
  8. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #9
    either that, or they were saying it hadn't even shown up yet on the first day!

    For a longer read about the "convention bounce" you might enjoy what-convention-bounce-looks-like from a site started by some guys that are also into analyzing baseball statistics
     
  9. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #10
    Polls. :mad: I'd seen the Gallup poll that had Obama eight points ahead. Then I saw the CNN poll that had him only one point ahead. These guys are all over the place.

    And we have to remember that presidential polls are rather fuzzy things. You can win them and still lose the electoral vote.

    The other thing that pisses me off is that in that link gibbz provided, you can see that the vast majority feel the country is going the wrong direction, 81-18 (or thereabouts). Now, I don't expect Obama to have that kind of lead, but this certainly shouldn't be a close race.
     
  10. sushi Moderator emeritus

    sushi

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    #11
    True.

    Kind of like a close horse race with each horse taking the lead, loosing it, taking the lead, loosing it ... well you get the idea.
     
  11. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #12
    Well... look at how Palin is being questioned about the crazy "love-child" rumor. There are DOZENS of stories just like that for Barack Obama, including one I was just researching that has a Hillary Clinton supporter filing a lawsuit suggesting that Obama is not a citizen, and that his mother flew out of the country and had him there... and that he declared himself an Indonesian at one point in his adult life (for whateve that means). I'm reading this, and I'm sighing and scratching my head. With such RAMPANT uncertainty being introduced into the campaign, the amount of xenophobia being unleashed has GOT to have a significant affect. I'm pretty impressed, but "race alone" isn't enough. People need to keep pointing to other people he's had passing associations to and shout, "Look! He's consorted with devils!" I mean, really. I'm sure if people wsihed to play that same game with McCain (a dangerous game to be sure) they wouldn't have to go very far. It's just all so inane though.

    We can only trust that America is smarter than that. Smart enough to vote on POLICIES and not PREJUDICE.

    ~ CB
     
  12. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #13
    Polls are not predictors. They are simply a snapshot of the electorate in time. They can also be a trend indicator when the same poll is checked over time. They are not meaningless; but they also won't tell you who's going to win in November.
     
  13. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #14
    Exactly. A friend of mine has the same opinion as rdowns about polls, but I find that trends are pretty important, because they guage reactions to the various events currently happening AS they're happening.

    I'm always amazed when they can go back and check the same poll across multiple years and occassions... because you can't go back and invent a question that was never asked in previous years. You generally have one shot to establish a longrunning indicator. Weather patterns are affected by this affect too. I hear there's a guy that's recorded the daily temperature at one spot in America for over 2 decades, and everybody keeps coming back to him for his data.

    ~ CB
     
  14. OutThere macrumors 603

    OutThere

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    #15
    State by state polls are where it's at. I hate national polls. They'll be relevant when we have a national election by popular vote.

    electoral-vote.com
     
  15. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #16
    I'll believe it when I see it. There are plenty of reasons McCain isn't doing worse, and Obama isn't doing better that are obvious that we don't have to go over too much again. Needless to say, most are not logical nor based on legitimate reasons. McCain is a maverick, even though he isn't, and Obama is a Muslim, even though he isn't, and still wondering why that somehow equals bad even if he was. Palin might help with the evangelicals, but she could hurt too, as we saw that misogyny is almost as bad as racism. Maybe even worse. Biden seems to be doing ok, and those speeches were amazing. Really hit all the right spots. The GOP couldn't do too much with what they had, but the response to Gustav and suddenly wanting to take the high road might help them a little. Also, the media helped to make this more of an even race than it should have been, hitting Obama for things that are still sticking while ignoring McCain's constant screw ups. They like controversy, and couldn't make things too easy for him. A landslide is boring.

    Of course, as has been said, we did vote for Bush twice, and even though the GOP is wildly unpopular right now, they could easily still win.
     
  16. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #17
    * Whew! * Let's hope the lead widens even more.
     

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