Obama meets with John Edwards

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Feb 18, 2008.

  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    Impossible not to try to read something into this...especially with the secrecy involved.

    At the bare minimum, Obama seems to be trying to put the final nail in Clinton's coffin by courting Edwards' endorsement shortly before several tightly-contested primaries that could make or break Hillary. They're not meeting just to discuss health care policy and "how to move the party forward".

    At the outside, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if there was a little vice presidential talk as well. It's too early of course for Obama to be picking a running mate publicly, but there could be a little deal where if Obama gets the nomination....

    As an aside: people have tried to make much of Obama's inexperience. Perhaps. He certainly doesn't have the raw experience of others who ran for the Dem nomination. But you gotta admit the guy is running a smart, clever campaign. He obviously knows exactly what he's doing, and to me that makes up for at least some of his inexperience.
     
  2. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #2
    If Edwards was to endorse either Clinton or Obama, what would that mean for his pledged delegates?
     
  3. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #3
    IIRC, absolutely nothing.

    link

    It looks like the delegates Edwards already has are free to back whomever they feel like... So essentially there are 26 more superdelegates to court. Although it would seem likely that Edwards' endorsement might have some sway in influencing the delegates support.
     
  4. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #4
    Edwards could ask his delegates to vote for another candidate, but voting is still up to the individual delegate, apparently, whether or not Edwards endorses someone else. An endorsement would mean more politically for the primaries to come, than in terms of the delegate count I suppose.

    One thing I have heard is that candidates generally "suspend" their campaigns instead of "dropping out" because this gives them more influence at the convention. Assuming the above is true, then I don't know how.
     
  5. spork183 macrumors 6502a

    spork183

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    #5
    I believe the "suspended" vs "dropped out" is an issue around direct control of delegates. This is from CNN:
     
  6. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #6
    I could see that if the delegates are feeling that they have to abide by the voters' decision, by suspending the candidate can determine if his delegates will be pulled away from a candidate he or she does not want by un-suspending and tying their delegates back to themselves. By dropping out, they lose the ability to come back and yank the delegates into their corner should the delegates make decisions that the candidate did not like.

    Admittedly since the delegates are not bound to begin with this is only slightly more influence than they would have by dropping out/endorsing, especially if the candidate has only a tiny number of delegates.
     
  7. abijnk macrumors 68040

    abijnk

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    #7
    Both Hillary and Barack have been courting Edwards endorsement since he announced he wasn't running anymore (dropped out, suspended, whatever). Its been in the news a little bit as blurbs during pundits speeches and, if I am remembering right, there was a brief article about it on CNN's political ticker.

    The delegates have to vote for someone, it would only make sense that both candidates would seek his endorsement.

    There's also been a sneaky meeting between Hillary and Edwards as reported by The Washington Post

    I am just curious on how long it will take for Edwards to come forward with an endorsement. I would have thought it would have already happened, but obviously I've been wrong.
     
  8. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #8
    I don't think he'll endorse anyone until the the winner is either evident, or declared.

    The three reasons I can see him holding out are:

    1. See which candidate can come closest to implementing his ideals and represent his supporters and vision of America.

    2. Hold out for a particular position in the administration.

    3. Wait for the winner to emerge.

    I think number 3 is the most likely. Since the winner might not be declared until August, and it could really go either way at the moment, his endorsement has roughly a 50/50 shot at going the wrong way which could alienate him from the next administration.

    Determining which campaign most closely matches his vision should not take this long, and with both campaigns angling for whatever advantage they can get, I'm willing to bet that both campaigns have behind the scenes deals to give Edwards lucrative positions in their potential administrations.

    The only reason left is that he doesn't want to endorse the loser for fear of being blacklisted from the winner's administration should he back the wrong candidate.
     
  9. abijnk macrumors 68040

    abijnk

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    #9
    That makes a lot of sense. He took Kerry's offer of VP last time, so I don't see why he wouldn't take a VP offer this time, in which case I would say your reasoning is spot on.
     
  10. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #10
    I sort of doubt that he'd be offered the VP slot by either Clinton or Obama, unless it was necessary to create a sense of party unity. Which could happen if the primary season turns out to be long, bruising, and inconclusive. Otherwise, presidential candidates tend to prize their VP picks too much to offer it to a runner-up. In Obama's case, he'd probably choose someone with plenty of foreign policy experience, preferably from the south or west. In Hillary's case, everybody will know that her real running mate is Bill, so it probably doesn't matter. ;)
     
  11. stevegmu macrumors regular

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    #11
    I don't see how B. Obama would consider a running mate who was for the Iraq war.

    http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/021007edwards.pdf


    He even supported the decision to go to war 'alone'.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3131295/
     
  12. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #12
    I don't think Edwards is holding out for VP this time...

    Maybe some other high level cabinet position, Attorney General maybe (hasn't this been rumored already)?
     
  13. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #13
    Hard to nail this one down. You say Edwards' delegates are free to vote for whomever, but IIRC many of them are ideologically closer to Obama than Clinton, and are awaiting some sort of sign from Edwards that would cement the deal.

    Better point about Edwards hedging his bets on a VP spot, though. Clinton and Obama may both be "feeling him out" to see how he'd fit into that slot, should they win.

    Though I think Edwards would also make a pretty good AG. I'd love to see him release a can of "Antitrust Whoopass" on some industries.
     
  14. spork183 macrumors 6502a

    spork183

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    #14
    of course, Hillary would have Bill's experience to fall back on. Edwards better watch out if Hillary has a stogie...
     
  15. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #15
    Yeah, we know. The Dems bandwagoned. We get it. You're of course forgetting that unlike Hillary, Edwards has since said admitted he was mistaken. I don't know if that's enough for Obama, but it's more of a distinction from Hillary for him than anything else.

    I've heard that too. Obama needs a better VP, and I doubt Edwards would want that anyway. I don't know how good he'd be, but he couldn't be worse than what we've had lately.
     
  16. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #16
    I get pretty excited about the idea of Edwards as Obama's VP. I would love to see that happen, but AG would be great as well.
     
  17. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #17
    I'd rather see someone like Jim Webb as Obama's VP -- although I'm still pissed at Webb for his vote on the FISA stuff.
     
  18. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    It just seems so doubtful to me. Unless I'm missing something (and by all means, fill me in), Edwards would not bring anything to an Obama ticket that he would actually need to win a general election. Not a huge amount of popular support, not much experience in government or foreign policy.

    Either way, as the political pundits are so fond of saying, the bottom half of a ticket rarely wins an election.
     
  19. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #19
    It's definitely more a "feel good" thing for me personally than any sort of strategic consideration. I like Obama, I like Edwards.

    If there is someone better, I am honestly all for it. I simply don't know who else would even be considered, so it's easy to imagine them being a great ticket. Some people have mentioned Bill Richardson, which never really got me excited. He needs to get the nod first, anyway.

    Say, what's Bill Clinton up to these days?

    :D
     

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