Obama not doing 'quite' as well as we'd hoped?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by geese, Oct 17, 2008.

  1. geese macrumors 6502a

    geese

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    #1
    Hmmm, the Gallup polls puts Obama only 2 points ahead of McCain, taking into account 'traditional' voter behaviour. What do you make of this?

    http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup+Daily.aspx
     
  2. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    #2
    Fivethirtyeight, one of the most respected polling sites on the web, gives some perspective on the Gallup poll:

    Here's their take on the new results:

     
  3. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #3
    Not everyone in this forum hopes he'll do "well". Also, polls are a relativistic measure of voter behavior. As long as you're measuring in the same way, it gives you a picture of voter trends. If you keep altering the criteria, you're not sure WHAT you're looking at... but you're certainly not looking at a crystal clear predictor of who'll when. It sounds like Gallup is measuring a few different changing things there.

    ~ CB
     
  4. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #4
    don't forget that not only the media makes more business with a close race but also gallup etc.

    reminds me of 2006 around here where it was a close race between the biggest 2 parties for months and then it was a margin with like 6-7% for the biggest party at the election
     
  5. geese thread starter macrumors 6502a

    geese

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    #5
    OK, I rephrase: not as well as *most of us here* would like!

    Ach, it seems like its a bit more difficult to predict Democrat voter behaviour, according to that Gallup page, as they are loss likely to vote. It seems unlikely that McCain will win from this side of the pond, but i dont know you crazy lot are thinking over there.
     
  6. sellitman macrumors regular

    sellitman

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    #6
    As long as we use Republicon made voting machines with a hidden source code we will have Republicon Presidents. Voting and silly things like polls don't matter much. Sorry to burst your bubble.
     
  7. obeygiant macrumors 68040

    obeygiant

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    #7
    Republicon? Is that like Democrap? :)

    No one should worry, Obama is going to win.
     
  8. Roderick Usher macrumors regular

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    #8
    Yep. It's kind of a paradox: we shouldn't take his victory for granted - but at the same time, we know that his field organizers will be working as hard as ever to register and bring out voters in these last days, which is what propelled him to victory over Clinton and put him as far ahead as he is now. So, I'm not assuming anything, but at the same time, I'm not at all worried.

    Polling is going to tighten because polling always tightens at the end. It's not going to change the fundamental dynamics of the race, and we should all remember that when the talking heads on CNN or MSNBC are shrieking "What does this meeeeean?" Oh, and never mind that the Drudge Report cherry-picked the result of one poll that was a huge outlier among a dozen others.

    Kind of funny how long it took for us to see a campaign that knows that, to get votes, you go directly after the voters... get bodies out there, knocking, organizing, calling... not just broadcasting messages over the airwaves hoping they'll convince people. Obama's is the first campaign I've seen that's organized with as much thought and detail as a giant corporation - but run with a lot more efficiency and discipline.

    Too late, the McCain campaign realizes that its ground operations were crap, so they're pulling out their final ineffectual stops: McCain on Letterman, Palin on SNL, robo-calls designed to scare voters. Heck, I got one last week (the previous tenant of my apartment was apparently a registered Republican or something) about Obama's "connection" with Bill Ayers, and then another one this week about how he wants to raise my taxes.

    Don't take this election for granted. But don't worry, either. Chicken-Littles will be howling in the last few days and you should pay them no mind. The work that actually needs to be done to win this election - the work that Obama and his colossal operation have been doing from the beginning - the only work that actually matters - is continuing to be done. That is all you need to know.
     
  9. emw macrumors G4

    emw

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    #9
    I don't think I'd classify it as being worried, but I am concerned about past history and the results of the 2000 and 2004 elections.

    While I think that Obama has put out his plans very clearly, and has been fairly open about his relationships (name a politician without something in their past than can be stretched into a "problem"), and I believe he has the character and competence to be our next president, there are many who still have questions.

    This election has been in process for what, almost 2 years? And 8-12% of voters still claim to be "undecided". What is left to know? It's that amazing level of indecisiveness that has me concerned.

    As well as my complete and utter lack of confidence in anything polls tell me. ;)
     
  10. djellison macrumors 68020

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    #10
    Given the warped system in the US - a poll doesn't mean anything on its own - you have to feed it thru the electortal college system.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    That currently reads
    Obama 352 McCain 171 Ties 15
     
  11. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #11
    As Roderick Usher says, polls tend to tighten up nearer to the election.

    Nevertheless I checked other polls, and they seem to be holding steady. No reason to worry yet.

    And if you are still worried, don't forget that Obama has Biden and the Clintons out campaigning for him, he's outspending McCain by a 3-1 ratio, he's still going to be addressing the country in a 30-minute paid infomercial, and the Supreme Court has overturned the Ohio GOP's challenge to recent voter registrations.
     
  12. geese thread starter macrumors 6502a

    geese

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    #12
    Cool- so far, so good. I've never understood the issues with the voting machines though- do states count votes differently? Do they all have different set ups? (eg with voting machines?) Could there be issues with the voting machines as in 2000?
     
  13. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #13
    Oh yeah. Every state has something different. In fact, counties have differences. Some use paper, some use those humongous machines, some use electronic touchscreens.

    No matter what method people use, there will be controversies. The Diebold machines were supposed to eliminate such controversies, but as you know they just created more of their own. What happens this year remains to be seen.
     
  14. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #14
    My gut feeling is the diebold disaster won't really matter as much this election.

    I'm with Bill Clinton. Regardless of polls I believe it's going to be a landslide for Obama.


    But PLEASE STILL VOTE.

    gosh darnit:D
     
  15. Counterfit macrumors G3

    Counterfit

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    #15
    Diebold makes optical-scan machines as well. They're used in Rhode Island, and thankfully leave a paper trail.
     
  16. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #16
    Here's why I think McCain is making gains in the polls.

    McCain is attacking him on three fronts: Ayers, ACORN and "socialism". Right now, Obama is defending himself from all three charges, and doing a good job of it too. But that's still the problem.

    Obama's on defense. He's not on offense. He's letting McCain take it to him, and he's defending, but he's not the one taking it to McCain.

    Having had a fairly sizable lead, he's now playing it safe. He's playing a prevent defense, and as a Cleveland Browns fan, I can tell you that the prevent defense cost us two trips to the Superbowl. (Thanks, Marty Schottenheimer!)

    Obama needs a topic with which to slam McCain. Something to change the subject and the momentum and put McCain on the defensive. Though at the moment I confess I have no idea what that might be.
     
  17. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #17
    Isn't it sad that we live in a place where politics is played like a football game? Attacking an opponent (with mostly falsehoods and things that have nothing to do with how the country will be run) somehow gets you ahead in the polls.

    sad.

    (yes i realize thats pretty much how it goes in politics, it doesnt make me feel any better tho.)
     
  18. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

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    #18
    Just remember one thing.

    McCain started this fight.
     
  19. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #19
    Hold everything.

    They did it. They handed Obama a great issue.

    Now they're trying to drag our own troops into their slimy smears:

    Man, I hope Obama runs with this. It's sickening. :mad:
     
  20. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #20
    :rolleyes: I wasnt aware that we were in that war so we could vote here.

    I LOVE when Mccain tries to make ACORN out to be an evil organization, yet he gave a speech to them only a few years ago.....

    Mayb he doesnt view it as hypocrisy because he knows that the allegations are far reaching lies?
     
  21. macfan881 macrumors 68020

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    #21
    id like to see what the polls are tomorrow after the powell endorsement i seriousy think this is something that is gonna give him a few points ahead out of all the gallup polls and possibly could move independent voters as well
     
  22. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #22
    I dont think its gonna get alot of new votes, just reaffirm the decision made by current obama supporters.

    Lets just hope that as many of us as possible get to the polls this time instead of getting over confident and relying on others to do so.


    *disclaimer: i cannot vote this election :(
     
  23. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    #23
    Find someone who is eligible to vote and make sure they get out to the polls if they otherwise wouldn't have. Offer a ride/whatever to their polling location. You can still have an impact by helping make sure people get out to the polls and vote.
     
  24. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #24
    I think McCain's attacks are going to come back and bite him because most people have grown tired of negative ads. McCain is obviously a desperate candidate trying everything and it shows.

    Our country is moving in a decidedly liberal direction and McCain failed to realize this and showcase his differences from Bush. He simply didn't switch gears from talking to the true neo-con believers at the GOP convention then to the majority of Americans who are moderate to liberal.

    It's far too late for McCain to address the liberals, moderates, and reluctant conservatives angry with George W. Bush. McCain basically ffed himself. It's Monday morning two weeks before the election and fivethirtyeight.com, now being quoted by CNN, has his chances at 6.9% percent to win.

    Some think Palin bombed on SNL and that Powell's endorsement may help Obama. If any of those are true, then McCain is doomed even more than he is now.
     
  25. synth3tik macrumors 68040

    synth3tik

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    #25
    polls (even gallop) are ungodly inaccurate and misleading. I can never take them into account.
     

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