Obama on top, less than 1 week, CNN electoral college projecton from 277 to 286

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Cleverboy, Oct 29, 2008.

  1. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #1
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/29/poll.wednesday/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
    How accurate do you folks think CNN's projection will be? It's interesting that the national polls (and popular vote) is tightening, but the state poll advantages are widening. The oddest phenomena to me.

    Historical projections from CNN:
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/map.past.elections/index.html

    CNN has Clinton vs Bush, Clinton vs Dole, Gore vs Bush, and Kerry vs Bush. Visually, there are a lot of large states that have gradually gone republican over the last handful of elections. Are we going to see someone "reset the clock", and have the map appearance closely resemble the Clinton victory... or be even more starkly contrasted in the amount of blue states?

    ~ CB
     
  2. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #2
    Since you have an article that uses Colorado voters, I thought I would chime in with some statistics. As of today, 42.9% of active registered voters have already cast their ballot either by mail in or early voting. This is huge I believe. With only 2 more days of early voting, I believe that more than half of the active registered voters will have cast their ballots before election day.

    Without early voting across the country, election day would have been total chaos.

    www.govotecolorado.com
     
  3. Cleverboy thread starter macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    #3
    Amen to that. I voted early, and I have such a peace of mind. There was a news piece I was listening to with one voter commenting on how much more relaxing it is to have 2 weeks to vote at your leisure, rather than ganging up on one day. She was out shopping with her young daughter at the time. I thought that was great.

    ~ CB
     
  4. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #4
    With all of the options for voting this year, there really isn't any excuse for not voting. I know in Colorado, early voting has been going on since October 20th. and will have lasted for 11 days by the time it ends on Friday. In addition, there is mail in ballots which you don't have to state a reason for using. Lastly, there is election day. So truly anyone with a desire to vote can vote.
     
  5. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #5
    Yep- that's why I went early. I still had to wait half an hour too. It's just crazy.
     
  6. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #6
    both 277 and 286 are enough to win, but Obama probably has well over 300 electoral votes with just 4 days 22 hours left. I venture to say he has 350 electoral votes approximately doubling John McCain's projection.

    fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama 344 EVs.

    electoral-vote.com gives Obama 364 EVs.

    I think the Obama informercial will give Obama a few more EVs projected for him within two or three days. Who knows? 375? 400?

    EDIT: noon Oct. 30, EST, Obama's numbers have dipped a tiny bit and now it's a projected 5.4% percent race come election day with less than 4.5 days left. This scares me. I hope Obama's 1/2 point loss wasn't related to the infomercial last night. By tomorrow, I hope to see an upward trend again for Obama.

    That being said, while Wisconsin has softened for Obama and Arizona has increased for McCain, Obama's electoral-vote.com prediction is upped to 375 EVs. It's more EVs held, but held more loosely. Georgia is still McCain and that bums me, but Mississippi is trending in Obama's direction and it's the first gulf state, besides Florida that is showing some blue movement. There is certainly no way that the south can be considered a red voting block with the context of the White House race, Senate races, and House races. If anything, the south is purple heading towards blue.
     
  7. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #7
    After a couple more states have now been upgraded from "tossup" to "leaning Obama", McCain can no longer win even if all the tossup states go to his column. He can get a maximum of 247 electoral votes, if CNN's projection is anything to go by. Even if you give him Iowa, Nevada and Colorado, all currently leaning Obama, he's still 2 EV's short of 270.
     
  8. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #8
    With 94 hours, 28 minutes left until polls open up on some East Coast states, things are not looking rosy for John McCain, and the odds of him winning are less than 4% percent according to fivethirtyeight.com. I will not celebrate until November 4th, which will probably be a landslide for Obama but can possibly, but not probably, be a slight EV win.

    It's not over until it's over. There is the extremely unlikely, but possible scenario that CNN brought up of a huge Obama lead early in the day in November 4th based on projections, and then having complacent west coast voters thus stay at home giving McCain Washington, Oregon, and California and thus making the GOP win the White House. While this is extremely unlikely, imho, CNN did a show detailing this very possibility. I sure hope this does not happen.

    Sometimes people don't vote for a "sure" winner and sit it out...just think Jennifer Hudson from American Idol when she was voted off early as many thought her to be a favorite for the final but simply didn't vote for her thinking she was "safe".

    The same thing can possibly, but not probably, happen to Obama on November 4th. Heavy early voting can hold off McCain should he capture California.
     
  9. yojitani macrumors 68000

    yojitani

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    #9
    After the last two elections, I am worried about republican vote tampering shenanigans. I won't hold my breath for the outcome of this one.
     
  10. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #10
    With a pretty longstanding 2-1 EV advantage over McCain, the GOP would have to tamper on a biblical scale to change this election. What can you do with 94 hours remaining before the floodgates are let loose?

    If McCain wins fair and square, without hard core vote tampering, I will sadly accept his presidency for at least the next four years. If the American people legitimately pick McCain, then it's the choice of the people. But if McCain greatly tampers with the voting infrastructure, I am moving to Canada!

    Vote tampering on that large of a scale pretty much amounts to being in a tin horn dictatorship which can lead to a lawless zone. Having been in the middle of a religious war in a poor nation under desperate circumstances as a missionary, I do not ever want to see that again, especially in my backyard of the USA. I will likely move.
     
  11. szark macrumors 68030

    szark

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    #11
    I don't think that California voters will stay home. Not with the highly controversial Prop. 8 on the ballot.

    I'm hoping that every state has record voter turnout this year.
     
  12. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #12
    Many states will have record turnouts, but what are the chances that "all" 50 states will have a record turnout? I think the chances are very slim for all to have that record turnout concurrently. I hope my fellow Californians turn up to vote in '08 in record, or near record numbers.
     
  13. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #13
    What worries me more than occasional illegal vote tampering, are all the legal methods of voter suppression. All this arbitrary legislation that differs from state to state, and how you can challenge votes, drag the whole thing to court, sue... those are the real "banana republic" trademarks of the US voting system.

    Here's how it works in my country: All eligible voters automatically get a voter certificate by certified mail. On the certificate, your designated voting location is printed. You show up at the location and flash your ID and the certificate. They give you an empty envelope. You go into a booth, take a ballot for the party you want to vote for, place it in the envelope and seal it. Then you go up to a counter and show your ID (again) and hand over the certificate and the envelope. They drop the envelope in a sealed ballot box, take your certificate and shred it, go into the records and remove your name from the list of people who have not yet voted.

    It's pretty failsafe and there is no possibility of registration fraud, because, well, there is no voter registration part. And voter fraud is virtually impossible (you'd have to falsely identify yourself as the real voter 3 times). And it can't be hauled to court and challenged. In the last election, there was a 82% turnout, 5.5 million votes were cast in the last election, and only 2,000 (0.3%) of those were spoiled.
     
  14. jplan2008 macrumors regular

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    #14
    Well, considering the fact that Oregon does 100% of its voting early, the scenario of Oregon voters staying home on election day because Obama's winning in other states is idiotic. And I'd say the same for the rest of their scenario.
     
  15. chrmjenkins macrumors 603

    chrmjenkins

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    #15
    In reference to CA, I just moved here and got my registration in the mail yesterday :D I'm glad to be able to vote on so many props, and have thankfully decided on all of them.

    As for this election, I think all projections will fall short. There's too many new variables. Huge increases in voter registration, increased participation from younger voters, effect of race, gravity of the domestic situation, voters who can't be reached via a land-line.

    Quite frankly, I don't think any of the polling models can keep up with all the new things going on. I wouldn't be surprised to see a leaning Obama or leaning McCain state go the other way because of that state's particular situation. It should be an interesting night, and hopefully I can go to bed knowing Obama will be our next President.
     
  16. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #16
    That's why CNN calls this scenario unlikely.

    Polls of how people who already voted in North Carolina show a huge boost for Obama. Winning North Carolina is by no means a complete barometer. :)

    With 82 hours left until election, and a 5.5% percent advantage for Obama according to fivethirtyeight.com "at election day", I can't say that it will be a pure landslide with a capital "L". Any "ten percent" poll lead attributed to Obama is probably overestimated. fivethirtyeight.com puts the number at 6.5% percent today, and that's looking at all the major polls in general, as opposed to Zogby/CNN, which has always seemed to show a higher number than the others for Obama. Why that is, I don't know, but while it looks like a win of around 300+ EVs for Obama, it's not going to be 400 EVs as a 10% percent popular vote lead would suggest. Reagan had a 12-14 point lead over Mondale and got well over 400 EVs, so double digit leads are not in the cards for this election.

    Personally, I would love to see Obama get 450 EVs. :)
     
  17. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #17
    OK, OK, I will dream - 460 EVs, 465?, anybody for 470? :)

    83 hours ago showed Obama with 364 EVs with no upward movement, and it still stands at 364 EVs, and we have 81 hours left until election starts so I don't think Obama will get 460, 465, or 470 EVs unless McCain is caught in bed with Palin or something. :)

    The one thing I do like is that McCain's gain in Arizona over the last 48 hours has been erased. He originally led his own state by a mere 5 percentage points, and then increased that lead to 6 points, but now it stands at 5 points. If this election were held November 11th instead of November 4th, Obama would capture Arizona and really stick it to McCain. I guess McCain would have to retire to Alaska or Utah, the only two states that have stayed loyal to him in an unwavering fashion over the past month. Alaska would be too cold for Arizonan McCain, but I suppose McCain could live in Orrin Hatch's guest house. :)
     
  18. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #19
    You think? :)
     
  19. PowerFullMac macrumors 601

    PowerFullMac

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    #20
    Indeed I do! :)

    Seems obvious he is gonna win at the moment, lets hope it stays that way :)
     
  20. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #21
    75 hours, 58 minutes until the floodgates are open

    By noon on tuesday PST, if projections hold, news agencies will call this all over.

    When I went to vote in 1992, all the news networks projected Bill Clinton winner and it was still early afternoon (3 pm) on the West Coast. He wasn't officially deemed winner until some hours later when votes were confirmed and West coast and Hawaii polls were closed, but the outcome was pretty much 99.7% percent sure based on projections.

    But back to this election, Obama's numbers are holding, but McCain's numbers, while not changing on most fronts are now showing an overall win chance of 2.5% percent at fivethirtyeight.com. It was slightly higher yesterday while all other numbers remained the same. Why is that? I am not a forecaster/better, but what else changes odds outside of popular vote and Electoral Vote projections? Anyway, I am happy for Obama.
     
  21. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #22
    News agencies no longer project winners that early as it discourages voting. They were also bitten by initially calling Florida for Gore in 2000. They will call states only when the polls close.
     
  22. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #23
    There was a huge debate over that at ABC. Some wanted to report percentages of precincts in and who was winning, some wanted to report only after that state closed polling. And some others only wanted to talk about projections (on ABC talk radio) only after Hawaii closed its polls.

    That radio station got in some trouble when they announced the winner of Survivor Season 1 a week early and I told all my friends. They were shocked when I was right and I never watched the show. :)

    Some believe in freedom of press while others believe that it is wrong to influence the election by telling the truth by listing early returns from eastern states. Personally, I want to know the truth as it comes in. I am not as fickle to vote or not vote based on who is "projected" to win because it's still only a projection and not a final count tally.

    Unfortunately, the ABC newstalk host doesn't come on until 10 PM EST and by then, his "prediction" will already be old news by then. The 4 PM EST time host may hint as to the trend. But as it stands there is no law against it and freedom of speech rules the day.

    As I was reading my Con Law textbook, I was all with it until I read the part about how some of the most liberal judges allowed hate groups to speak, even though every time that it happened people got hurt in riots, though sometimes only minor assaults and batteries. I have kind of a love hate relationship with the ACLU on that one. :)
     
  23. macfan881 macrumors 68020

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    #24
    Cnns news electoral map that was updated Thursday has obama at 291 They moved CO NV and NM to leaning obama Arizona is going from Safe McCain to leaning McCain "wow that would be embarrassing if McCain lost his home state :)". and i don't rember if NC was before this post started NC is now a toss up
     
  24. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #25
    When Gore didn't take his own state, the GOP got mileage off of that one and used it as ammo for years.

    Now the shoe is on the other foot, almost.

    Let's say Obama wins Arizona, which is barely McCain with a 5% percent lead as of now, 12:10 a.m. Saturday morning EST. If by Tuesday 72 hours from now when the polls open in some Eastern states there will be building momentum in the east and southeast for Obama, and then the gap in Arizona could fall below 4% percent as some on the fence voters may go Democrat at the last second, then there is that statistical possibility/margin of error that Obama can take Arizona and that's what I am hoping for. This scenario is somewhat unlikely but I check Arizona's status twice a day. As for the national status, it's been Obama over McCain for most of the summer and fall so there is no surprise there.

    UPDATE: 59 hours 44 minutes until election and Obama got one more point closer to taking Arizona and is within four points of tying McCain on his own turf. Obama's overall fivethirtyeight.com EV projection of 364 still stays the same with no gains of any new states. McCain has gained a couple of states that were tied though and pushes towards 200 EVs. National registered voters that have already voted stand at 58% percent Democrats and 42% percent Republicans so either the GOP will show up late, or show up in record low numbers conceding defeat, or showing a distaste towards W and punishing McCain for it. Well no wonder why McCain doesn't want W on the campaign trail (anybody watch SNL opener last week?) :)
     

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