Obama opens first double-digit lead over McCain

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    Gallup tracking poll:
    Fivethirtyeight.com:

    [​IMG]

    Honestly...in this environment, does anybody see McCain coming back from this and winning?

    To mint one, it's all over bar the shouting.
     
  2. Peace macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #2
    Come on..The Republican smear has just begun. Give them a chance to go out and spin,lie,torture and go to court before the election is over.
     
  3. BigHungry04 macrumors 6502

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    #3
    I do see McCain coming back to win. Some people in this country are afraid of voting for an African-American, also with a middle name of Hussein how could you vote for him? :) I probably will vote for Obama but since I live in the republican stronghold of Kentucky my vote will definitely not matter in the end.
     
  4. Roderick Usher macrumors regular

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    #4
    Complacency is a great way to lose an election. As Al Giordano said at The Field:

     
  5. Peace macrumors P6

    Peace

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    Let's hope there are others in Kentucky that think the same way :)
     
  6. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #6
    Here's to hoping.

    The third debate is about the economy, which probably isn't good for McCain.

    I try to feel optimisitc about these numbers, but after the massive deflation after the '04 election, I won't feel good until it's a done deal. Then, the corks will fly. Especially if it's an electoral college beatdown like fivethirtyeight is showing now.
     
  7. TheAnswer macrumors 68030

    TheAnswer

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    #7
    Looks promising.

    That said, now more than ever is the time to make sure that the first-time voters and other voter groups with historically poor election day turnout get to the polls.
     
  8. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #8
    Their smears are backfiring on them so far. People aren't buying it anymore.
     
  9. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    And you're probably wise to feel that way.

    Nevertheless, there's a much bigger popular, and certainly electoral, lead than Kerry had going into the final weeks. And the mudslinging doesn't seem to be accomplishing much besides getting McCain's reputation dirty.

    I really don't think they have anything left in their tank.

    I could be wrong, of course. Wouldn't be the first time I'd gotten my hopes up only to see them dashed.
     
  10. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    There are. I have several friends in Kentucky. Kentucky is fabulous, BTW. Frankfort with it's yummy Bourbon...
     
  11. Peace macrumors P6

    Peace

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    The 3rd debate is "Domestic Issues"

    This can go from the economy to national security to the color of your skin. It's going to be the most open debate where the 2 candidtes sit at a round table with the moderator.
     
  12. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    #12
    Not directing this towards you, but to those 'people in this country' that you mention.

    I remember a comic doing a 10 - 15 minute routine on the Arsenio Hall show back in 1990. He came out, very lightfooted, waived like he was a Japanese tourist in a foreign country, bowed to everyone multiple times, picked up his mic, then said 'Howdy, y'all!' in a well pronounced southern drawl.

    The comic: Louisville, Kentucky's own Henry Cho.

    My whole point: the audience saw his name, saw him, and the first thing that came to their minds was 'lightfooted, broken english-speaking Asian'. Granted, he played on that when he came out, but still, even without him egging that on, that was what everyone (including me) had perceived.

    If people are judging off of just a name, then well.. not only do those people really piss me off, but this country will indeed be (is?) truly lost. In fact it already has. Youssef Islam and the No-Fly list, anyone?

    BL.
     
  13. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #13
    I've watched the first 2 debates and the VP one. Not sure I can stomach the 3rd presidential one. They keep reiterating the same talking points over and over again ("What is your favorite flavor of popsicle?"... "Cherry... because it's energy independent...") and I don't think I've learned anything new. Last night I started to get the impression that whoever spoke first was just trying to make the other person waste their time defending/correcting the others statements. I know that's what politics "is" but I have better things to do.

    I don't think McCain can come back. Something major has to happen between now and then... a world event... and it'd be a bad world event and I don't want that to happen so... If he does, here's to his health... 'cause Palin would... ugh.
     
  14. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

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    Just watch it along with listening to Sammy Hagar and the Wabo's "Mas Tequila" and you'll be fine. ;)

    BL.
     
  15. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    What's the historical perspective on this? Aren't these races usually very close, isn't it extremely rare for any one candidate to have a double-digit lead?
     
  16. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #16
    The only scary part about being ahead in the polls is that it motivates the opposition while simultaneously demotivating your allies.

    People are prone to look at a commanding poll lead and come to the conclusion that "my candidate is going to win, so I don't need to take the time to vote" while the other side can concentrate on getting as many people to the booths as possible.

    Given how close the swing states are it could really hurt if too much attention is given to the national polls and people in swing states come up with that attitude. Hopefully everything will play out as the polls now indicate Pollster now has Obama winning with 320 EC votes and still has 55 undecided with 33 of them leaning towards Obama in the aggregate polls. It definitely looks good, but until I get over my hangover on November 5th and get a chance to read the results I'm trying not to be overconfident.
     
  17. TheAnswer macrumors 68030

    TheAnswer

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    In post-Reagan times, I believe the popular vote has always ended up close. I don't have any idea how it tracked during the campaign, however.

    Electoral-vote.com's breakdown of the electoral college 2008 vs. 2004 offers some insight as to how this year's race is comparing to 2004.
     
  18. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    It's all up to Obama's team at this point. Hopefully they won't slack off in pursuing the votes and as you say convincing them to vote no matter what.

    The whiff of defeat could mobilize McCain's team but as long as McCain keeps pumping out crazy ideas like his $300 billion dollar mortgage buyout, there's little they can do to save him. I think that idea alone has P O ed all the responsible mortgage payers, many of whom would have tended to vote for him.
     
  19. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #19
    My feeling is that Obama is going to need a 5-6 point lead in the polls on election day in order to eke out a victory, since he'll lose that much to the racist voters who can't admit to a pollster that they simply won't vote for an African-American.
     
  20. CalBoy macrumors 604

    CalBoy

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    #20
    Not really.

    2000 and 2004 were the two exceptions in recent years.

    It was known in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996 that a certain candidate was going to win (and win rather nicely) based on polls that showed them far ahead.
    Although the Bradley Effect has been wanning in recent years (as in smaller difference between polls and votes), so let's hope this holds true for Obama.
     
  21. Cleverboy macrumors 65816

    Cleverboy

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    Get ready for the possibility, of the biggest upset in U.S. election history.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27084438/
    It will either be a MAMMOTH landslide... OR a replay of 2000, with subsequent riots and a national emotional depression to mirror the looming economic depression. Stephen Herrington but it best:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-herrington/mccain-will-raise-your-ta_b_131935.html

    Play ominous music here.

    ~ CB
     
  22. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    It's never been tested on a national scale though. Or for an office as important as this.

    I'm guessing the Bradley Effect will be fairly pronounced, ie. at least 5 points. I hope I'm wrong though.
     
  23. freeny macrumors 68020

    freeny

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    +2 (my wife and I)
     
  24. it5five macrumors 65816

    it5five

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    I have a question about these polls.

    These pollsters don't call cell phones; it's landlines only, right? Because I don't know a single young person my age (21) that has a landline anymore. Everyone I know usually has only a cell phone. Could this "oversight" in the polling process show a smaller lead than Obama actually has?

    If this is all true, and young people get out to vote this year, I think we'll see a bigger win by Obama than expected.
     
  25. TheAnswer macrumors 68030

    TheAnswer

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    #25
    I'm curious about this also. I know no one younger than myself who has a landline; then again, I live in a major metropolitan area in a blue state.

    I wonder if the "no landline" phenomenon is as pronounced in swing states? It could be that this phenomenon is less pronounced in the same swing states where a Bradley Effect might be more pronounced.
     

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