Obama regains double-digit leads as we head into the home stretch

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Oct 21, 2008.

  1. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #1
    *Whew* Things are going back in the right direction.

    From fivethirtyeight.com:
    That Pew poll they mentioned?:
    Meanwhile, over at MSNBC:
    Non-Americans, there's a term in NFL football, when one team is so far ahead of the other and time is running out, that the winning team pulls its starters and puts in the second string because the game is essentially over. In American football this is called "garbage time".

    Folks, I think we're in garbage time.
     
  2. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #2
    I'd like to agree but we've seen victory snatched from the jaws of defeat before.

    Ohio and Florida are close. I hate to obsess over my home state, but I feel that Obama will win if he wins Ohio. If he loses Ohio, I am not optimistic.

    To be sure, Obama is doing very well, and I feel better about this election than the two previous elections.
     
  3. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #3
    Obama has many paths to 270 electoral votes without OH and FL. The one that's been talked about for awhile are the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, 3 states which he's doing quite well in polls and which McCain has virtually abandoned. Plus, of course, every Kerry state is pretty much guaranteed to go for Obama. You can throw in Nevada, Virgina, Missouri and North Carolina which seem to be trending his way as well as icing on the cake, although if he gets Kerry+IA, CO and NM, he doesn't need any of those.

    McCain on the other hand, given the current polling, doesn't seem to have a path to 270 without picking off a Kerry state. The only Kerry state he's been actively campaigning in is Pennsylvania, but every poll I've seen so far has Obama leading in PA by double digits. The chances of him winning PA are slim...538.com gives him a 2% chance of winning it.

    To sum it up, I wouldn't worry too much about OH and FL, and neither is the Obama campaign, they're not putting all of their eggs in one basket and they're working on other ways to 270 without either of those states. But, if on election night, either OH or FL is called early for Obama, you can call him the next president. McCain isn't going to be able to win without both of those.
     
  4. da2005pizimp macrumors 6502

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    #4
    let's just hope there is no florida debocal like there was a few years ago
     
  5. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    Good points I think, though I'll add that I've been working in Nevada for the past month and, outside Reno, the majority of the locals seem like cowboy Republicans. Oh, and there are a lot of Mormons here too...Nevada may only be 5 electoral votes but that's still 5 votes, and it will probably be a close election in this state.
     
  6. macfan881 macrumors 68020

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    #6
    well according to cnn's electorial map Obama has enough electoral votes to get the win in november i think he's at 277 and many people are reporting that mccain will pull out of colorado and New Mexico and that puts obama at 291 the only way Mcain has a chance is to win PA Ohio and Flordia NC and MI wich that alone is along shot i think this is obamas year this year and i see obama winning big Nov 5

    Edit: actaully just saw Ohio's current poll number it looks like cnn may lean that to obama very soon obama is up 10 points in one of 3 Ohio's polls there
     
  7. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #7
    obama needs PA OH and FL and he will guarentee a victory.

    I dont want to hear any "we won" crap until this is really over. I do not underestimate the stupidity of nearly half the country as well as political corruption.
     
  8. jplan2008 macrumors regular

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    #8
    It looks great, but there's still a lot of work to do, and most votes to be cast. This isn't the time for complacency...
     
  9. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #9
    This election is far from guaranteed, to be sure. Obama is doing well but has to keep the pressure on and faces tough battles in key states. The key issue in OH will be whether the economy trumps Republican wedge issues like abortion and terrorism.
     
  10. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #10
    Most of America is like that....it's the larger urban areas that decide elections. Hell, look at a map of the results in the 2004 election in California and most of the counties went for Bush, it's the counties that make up LA and the Bay Area that go blue and give Democrats an overwhelming landslide in that state every 4 years.
     
  11. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    True, but the transition between urban and rural is very sharp in this state. I'm actually surprised it's "undecided", given how conservative it appears to me. Reno and Vegas are probably the two reasons it's not a purely red state.
     
  12. Anuba macrumors 68040

    Anuba

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    #12
    That's great, but the question is, why isn't it, like, 85-15?

    On one side you've got a young, eloquent and intelligent guy with a vision. He excels in favorability ratings, he's won all debates with a substantial margin. He has a course and he stays on it. He's running a well-oiled, modern and massive campaign with an insane amount of money behind it. He picked an experienced running mate. He's endorsed by everyone from the Kennedys to Colin Powell. He's got two Clintons and his wife working for him on the campaign trail. He represents the party whose last president left a federal budget surplus.

    On the other side you've got an old, angry and erratic geezer with no vision whatsoever. He bombs in favorability ratings, he's lost all debates. He has no course whatsoever, he's making it up as he goes along. He's running an antiquated Rovian campaign with pocket change behind it. He picked a blithering, uneducated idiot gaffe machine as a running mate. He's endorsed by Dubya (yikes) and Chuck Norris. He's got nobody working for him on the campaign trail, just his fat daughter and lizard wife who are standing in the background. He represents the party whose last president will be leaving with the lowest approval rating in history, after flushing the entire country down the toilet.

    What the hell is wrong with these GOP supporters? How thick, blind, deaf, dumb, boneheaded and suicidal can you get? If Jesus was the Dem candidate and his slogan was "Eternal heavenly bliss", and a runny turd was the GOP candidate, under the slogan "OMG LOL me is stanky FTW!!", I guarantee you the turd would get at least 45%.
     
  13. macfan881 macrumors 68020

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    #13

    indeed but than im still asking myself how in world did Bush get ellected twice
     
  14. Peace macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #14

    Speaking of Mormons the Salt Lake City Journal endorsed Obama Friday.

    But I agree. This is no time for complacency.

    Get out there and VOTE.

    NOW!! ( if your state allows it )

    Do not procrastinate.
     
  15. JLatte macrumors 6502

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    #15
    I sure will, and it won't be for Obama. I still don't understand the tone of a lot of people here... just because I don't vote for Obama doesn't mean I'm "stupid" or "thick, blind, deaf, dumb, boneheaded and suicidal". Just shows the immature state of mind of people that make such claims.
     
  16. Peace macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #16
    Vote for whomever you wish. Just vote.;)
     
  17. és: macrumors 6502a

    és:

    #17
    He didn't say if you don't vote for Obama that you're "thick, blind, deaf, dumb, boneheaded and suicidal", he said that if you vote for McCain then you're "thick, blind, deaf, dumb, boneheaded and suicidal".

    I just hope you're not going to waste your vote on an independent like Nadar (who I like) or Ron Paul (Meh...) because this election is too important. There is too much to play for.
     
  18. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #18
    You are right in that the one thing that can defeat Obama now is complacency. If we sit at home thinking, "I don't need to go out and vote. He's got it in the bag."

    Uh-huh. That's how you lose elections.

    No excuses, folks. Everybody get out and vote.
     
  19. és: macrumors 6502a

    és:

    #19
    People shouldn't need encouragement for this one. This is the most important election in many of our lifetimes.

    America has the chance to change the worlds opinion of it overnight. There is a change to elect a young, bright, articulate, progressive black man that is liked across the world. That'll wake the world up and it'll say that America is changing.

    If McCain wins, it's more of the same.
     
  20. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #20
    Backing up yesterday's polls:

    The NBC poll, too, was careful to mention that Obama was leading on those "key issues".

    Not double digits in this poll, but at least the mo is going the right way.
     
  21. edesignuk Moderator emeritus

    edesignuk

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    #21
    The rest of the world that is forced to sit idly by while you elect the man that will in many ways impact on us all, thanks you up to now. Now just make it all count when the final numbers are in and this is all over :)
     
  22. Queso macrumors G4

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    #22
    Bright and articulate would be enough to change the world's opinion. The progressive is a nice bonus :)
     
  23. Thomas Veil thread starter macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #23
    That's gotta be very frustrating, especially when you know how right wing and regressive we can be.

    Well, "progressive" by American standards, not world standards.
     
  24. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #24
    All those numbers seem high compared to what I interpret on fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com. Sure, Obama seems to be the clear leader with a more than 90 percent chance of winning and about a 2-1 lead in the electoral college, but it seems to be with a 6%-7% percent advantage/lead in the popular vote.

    A double digit lead should put Obama well over 450 electoral votes and I just don't see that happening this late in the game. Obama's 2-1 lead in the electoral college has stayed steady (read 6% percent popular vote lead) for almost five weeks now. I can't possibly see how in less than two weeks, Obama's 6% percent lead can turn into, let's say, a 14 point, or even 10 point lead.

    Remember there are 13 days left (actually 12 days 17 hours) and many have voted absentee already and Obama has a clear lead there in what used to be a shoe in time for the GOP.

    This time in 2004 the electoral college and popular vote were pretty much set, give or take 1/2 of 1% percent. By those estimates, I think there is stability now with Obama at a 4.5% to 8.5% percent lead in the popular vote, but not double digits.

    Please people, I am voting for Obama, but correct me in my reasoning if you think I am wrong and that Obama will win by a substantial margin, yes, but not by a double digit popular vote margin.

    Yes, Obama will win decisively, but he's not going to demolish McCain so call me a party pooper if you like.
     
  25. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

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    #25
    In 2000, America was vastly different. Nobody knew, or could predict how bad W could be. Both parties stood at an equal advantage.

    In 2004, I was saddened but the war in Iraq had not shown it's terrible potential yet and there was still some hope that maybe the economy would recover. I thought the dems had a slight advantage, but in the end, Bush won by one state, Ohio so the slight advantage was to the GOP.

    Today, with nearly 8 years of an underwhelming ecomony and no clear end in sight of problems in Iraq, the GOP is at a disadvantage. The most the GOP could claim are a few rebound days in the market recently, the hopeful but unproven bailout, and some decrease in violence in parts of Iraq. But compared with the larger drops in the market, Americans very skeptical about the bailout, and the almost guaranteed resurgence of violence likely to happen sometime in Iraq, the net effect is still a "disadvantage" for the GOP.
     

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