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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by skunk, Mar 8, 2008.
Good news if only in a small way, I think.
Next stop Mississippi, where Obama is expected to do well. The really big showdown coming is Pennsylvania.
What's the largest state in terms of delegates remaining?
It's Pennsylvania unless Florida holds a make-up primary. It's beginning to look more and more like Clinton can't win. A recent poll in Michigan puts Obama and Clinton even there.
Even if she wins huge in Pennsylvania, a rescheduled Florida primary, and Puerto Rico, which is not at all unlikely. She could do better than 60% in all of them, but that's not enough:
Let's go through:
Obama's a +138 among pledged delegates right now (CNN.com), and will probably be at at least +145 when the remaining Wyoming delegate is counted and the 67 Texas caucus delegates are as well.
Mississippi. Say Obama barely wins with 51% of the vote. Moves up to +146
Pennsylvania, Clinton does awesome and gets 65% of the vote. Obama falls to +98
Guam she gets 75%. Obama falls to +96
Indiana she gets 55%. Obama down to +88
North Carolina she gets 55%. Obama down to +74
West Virginia she gets 60%. +68
Kentucky 60%. +53
Oregon 60%. +43
Montana 50%. +43
South Dakota 50%. +43
Puerto Rico 70%. +21
Then she wins the rescheduled Michigan primaries and Florida primary be enough to make up the remaining 21.
Not going to happen. Of the remaining states, Obama will win in at least Mississippi, Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina and Indiana. That's more than enough.
Unfortunately, the earliest I can see her dropping out is May 6, after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. If Obama wins big in Mississippi, Clinton wins by less than 60-40 in Pennsylvania, and Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana. She should drop out.
i like obama, but that somewhat worries me after having read this article.
"can't", what a funny word. people alwyas throw it around and then hillary overcomes it
as for the general i think hillary is more likely to win because she's winning in swing states. and not to mention if obama cant stand up to hillary's little softball attacks in texas and ohio how is he going to fight off the bush attack machine?
also she's from arkansas, and if that state turns blue in november things are looking good.
obama is from illinois but that's already blue.
That's reasonable that Arkansas is a potential gain while Illinois should be a given.
A look at these surveyusa polls, covered here:
is interesting though. According to these polls, either Obama or Clinton should beat McCain. Let's look at the ways they do it differently though:
Both win: Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Maine, Vermont, Mass, RI, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, Maryland, and DC. Those are all pretty safe assumptions as Democrat victories other than Ohio and Wisconsin, which will be battleground states.
Obama gives Democrats the advantage, using this data, in the West, picking up Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado, which Clinton loses. He also gives democrats more of the Midwest, including South Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, and a shot at Nebraska. And he gives Democrats better odds in New Hampshire and Virginia.
Clinton supplies Arkansas, Florida, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
Obviously, this data is pretty minimal and not a great predictor of what could come. But I think with Obama, a lot more states come into play on both sides of the country, and his campaign would continue to thrive based on his advantages so far: generating enthusiasm and money--he's beaten Clinton handily on both fronts.
McCain-Clinton, you'll have an election more similar to the recent elections that put Bush in the White House. Not much in play. Everything riding on Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Overcame what? She didn't overcome ANYTHING. Obama was closing the gap in the Ohio and Texas polls, and when she won, the Hillary campaign claimed it was a huge victory and she came out from behind. NO SHE DIDN'T! 2 weeks before mini super Tuesday, she had 20% leads in both states, and won by 10% in Ohio and lost Texas (yes, she lost Texas because Obama won the delegate count). 2 weeks before their primary, Wisconsin was a given to her, and she managed to lose that too. A year ago, no one ever said Obama had a chance at winning the nomination and Hillary was sure to be the next nominee. And now look where she is. I'm not sure what dictionary you're using, but the one I'm using definitely would not consider that to be the definition of "overcome"
The fact of the matter is, she hasn't overcome a goddamn thing this election, and if she plans on winning the nomination, she needs to start overcoming something. There are 11 primaries left, 3 or 4 of which she might win (PA, WV, KY and there's some talk that Guam, with their whopping 9 delegates may go for Hillary) and the rest are likely going to Obama. The super delegates are getting behind Obama in droves. And the ones that are undecided are likely going to back up whoever is in the lead, which will be Obama. It is almost a mathematical impossibility for her to win. Even if you seat the MI and FL results, based on the results of their sham elections (which will never happen), it's still nearly impossible for her to win. She's finished. She needs to bow out gracefully before she burns anymore bridges within the party and destroys whatever's left of her political career.
You can deny it all you want, but the numbers are what they are. And unless the last trick up her sleeve is to redefine how the world does basic arithmetic, she's done. You're going to see Senator Barack Obama's name on your ballot on November 4th, and based on current polls, you're going to see "Senator Barack Obama Elected 44th President of the United States" on the front page of your newspaper on November 5th (and me probably committing the crime of posting while intoxicated due to the celebration ). Deal with it.
yep, that's another one of those words.
you can spout numbers at me all day and you're right numbers dont lie but you have to admit if she didn't have a plan to turn this around she would dropped out by now.
come on, 11 in a row losses? there's no way you stay in after that unless you've got something up your sleeve. it wouldn't be the first time someone said
"wow i cant believe that person won the election, it was almost impossible"
obama likes to make people think he over came the harsh odds to get where he is and that's BS
he was the always the most likely to win and he always had more money.
hillary has overcome quite a bit. she's been fighting off republican BS while obama was just finishing his law degree
she only 99 delegates behind with wyoming (cnn.com)
What the hell could she possibly have up her sleeve? Change the laws of mathematics? She has NOTHING up her sleeve to win. The only reason she's still in this thing is because she's a self centered, power hungry, egotistical maniac who doesn't care about anyone besides her self. And you're just as delusional as she is.
i have no idea what she has up her sleeve but what i do know is that she doens't just quit when things get tough or start to look pretty grim.
that's not what hillary does
for instance what if the delegates from MI and FL get seated without a redo?
what if obama fundraising hits a bump?
there are six weeks between now and penn. anything can happen.
So, you have no idea what she has up her sleeve, you have no clue what she might possibly do, but you're still confident she has something
You don't quit when things get tough, but this is past the point is tough. It's a damn near impossibility. It's time to quit.
No, it's not. Instead, she attacks her fellow Democrats and divides the party more than ever, while at the same time killing any chance we might have in November, and killing any future political career she may have.
Not going to happen. The DNC has stated several times that the only way the delegates will be seated is if there's a revote.
Not going to happen either. And he's been doing so well in fundraising compared to her, that he can still hit a bump and still raise more than her.
Yes, we've seen what happens when Obama has time to campaign before a primary.....he closes the gap in polls and either ends up winning the primary, or causing a near 50/50 split in the delegates. These 6 weeks are just going to be another nail in her coffin.
Give it up already. She's done.
I continue to be amazed with those who will defend someone, no matter what. At this point it's almost impossible for Hillary to win. I'm sorry, but it just is. Obama also has his faults, he's not the second coming, but he's what we've got, so we should just go with it. This is almost as bad as those who will defend Bush no matter what. Even if all evidence is to the contrary. There's faith, then there's delusion.
I agree. If the tables were turned, I would have no problem admitting that Obama didn't have a chance. In fact, I bet if the tables were turned, he would've gracefully dropped out of the race a few weeks ago.
Hillary's just burning the bridges she had left. If she keeps this crap up, the DNC's not going to want to have anything to do with the Clinton family. I hope she doesn't plan on running for reelection for her senate seat....
I'm sure she will, and against someone who doesn't have a chance, so she'll probably win by default... kinda the way she thought she'd be winning the Presidency.
I dunno, I think might be a tough battle if she doesn't have the party behind her, and if she keeps this crap up, she won't.
Wouldn't surprise me to see something similar to Connecticut where she would lose the Dem primary and would have to run as an independent. Like Lieberman, she still might win as an independent, but the campaign will be a lot harder than it should've been.
People still like her for some reason. You'd have to have one heck of candidate running against her, and the Dems would have to grow some cajones to get behind someone else to topple the Clinton machine. Looking at the Lieb thing, he was more unpopular and still won.
I didn't say it was right, but she's still who she is, and for some reason some of the establishment's still somewhat behind her (though I get the feeling those like Dean don't like her at all).
It's her turn. The parties are very hierarchical both by design and temperament. Anyone who doesn't already inhabit the party's inner circle has an especially difficult time buying credibility with the movers and shakers.
A cajón is a drawer (like in furniture and such). You probably meant cojón
Its statistics not mathematics, so the rules are a little more flexible, and there is a non-zero, but low probability that she could win.
Yeah, that one. I couldn't say the other one. I was going phonetically.
if he was 100-200 delegates behind and he dropped out i would lose respect for him. giving up when things get tough. that's the kind of thing republicans use against us in the general.
i can see you hate hillary but what are you basing this on?
who knows what could happen in a month in a half?
i dont know what's going to happen but what i do know is that nobody has a crystal ball to stare into the future
i can come up with 1000 what ifs that could change everything?
for instance what if she hits hard in pennsylvania and walks away with 60% and mich and fl redos go in her favor? then she's the nod
but i dont know whats going to happen
So what did Clinton net for the week with all her victories? Is she actually up any delegates for the week? I see California's final certification swung 4 votes towards Obama, and with Obama's help in getting Foster elected in Hastert's old seat, Foster is now a superdelegate and has said he will repay Obama's favor in campaigning for him by casting his super-vote for Obama. Last I heard, Clinton had only picked up less than a dozen net delegates against Obama prior to those announcements.
Add in the other numbers, and you've got Clinton picking up a half-dozen net delegates on Obama in what is her best week in a long time. Clinton needs to be making up ground a lot faster than that to even have a plausible excuse for the superdelegates to overturn the results to that point.
stevento, did you go onto her website and swear an oath that you would win over the hearts and minds of MR? I skip your posts, I know what they say without even reading them.
Wow, you are more loyal to Hilary then the Democratic party. And thats the problem with her and her base. You can keep hammering someone of your own party when you are highly visible and behind. You are just doing the Republicans a favor by spending Democrat capital to beat up on another Democrat.
Thanks to this squabile, McCain can just sit back and do nothing and let them duke it out. Then when November rolls around he already has someone that was beat to hell by a person in their party.
The Dems are going to lose because of this mentality, and stevento is going to have to take a back seat for another 4 years.
So, Obama's +147 among pledged delegates according to CNN. Yet to be counted are:
The Texas caucus, which should put him up at least another +5 or more.
9 votes from Colorado, which Obama won 67% to 32%, say +3
So he's actually +155 or more. After Mississippi the gap should be well over 160, if not 170.