Part-time America: What do the statistics really say?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jnpy!$4g3cwk, Feb 8, 2014.

  1. jnpy!$4g3cwk, Feb 8, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2014

    jnpy!$4g3cwk macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #1
    Another interesting article in the Atlantic, this time about the prevalence of part-time work. Both Republicans (Obamacare don't you know) and Democrats (globalization and greedy Wall St. fat cats) have complained about it. The question is, is it really different this time around?


    [​IMG]

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/02/the-spectacular-myth-of-obamas-part-time-america-in-5-graphs/283674/

    Hmm, looks like the sudden expansion of part-time work has slowed lately. Some history:

    [​IMG]

     
  2. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #2
    Just in the last few days, the Congressional Budget Office released a report which projects reduction of full-time work to part-time, or reduction in hours in full time jobs to the equivalent of 2.5 million lost jobs.

    Sort of a hickey on FICA and income taxes.
     
  3. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    Makes a difference because businesses can now use these as an excuse.
     
  4. chown33 macrumors 604

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    #4
    The thread on that report is here:
    http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1703626
     
  5. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    More numbers:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-09/guest-post-low-wage-hours-new-low-obamacare-fines-loom

    "Low-wage workers clocked the shortest workweek on record in December - even shorter than at the depth of the recession, new Labor Department data showed Friday."

    And:

    "Businesses will face a nondeductible fine of $3,000 for each worker who receives a subsidy to buy insurance via the new exchanges. (For retailers facing a 39.2% federal and state tax rate, the fine would equal $4,930 in deductible wages.)

    For employers in industries with low profit margins and modest-skill jobs, ObamaCare's costs clearly provide an incentive to cut work hours. Companies do, however, have to weigh the potential downside of shorter workweeks — lower morale and worse customer service."
     
  6. lannister80 macrumors 6502

    lannister80

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    Yes, almost all of which will be voluntary (people quitting jobs they don't want to work, but must to afford health insurance).
     
  7. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    Yes, I was quite happy to read that report, because it says that people are less likely to be slaves to their current jobs just because of health insurance. It is a move in the direction of free-er, more flexible job market-- what employers always say they want when it drives wages down, but, turn around and complain about ("labor shortages") when wages go up.
     
  8. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #8
    Obamacare hasn't kicked in yet...
     
  9. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #9
    Eraserhead, you can see the results of what might be called "advanced planning" against the numerous negatives of Obamacare. It's already happening. When it fully kicks in? Katie, bar the door.

    Just one example: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...ent-raiding-assets-low-income-poor-americans/

    Many part-time workers will be in a wage bracket which automatically puts them into Medicaid. No choice in the matter.

    Roberts' comments about estate recovery seem to justify some negativity.
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    Why would you reduce your wages in the tax year before Obamacare kicks in when it doesn't make any difference. That literally makes no sense.

    And why would anyone have an issue about being on Medicaid? That also makes no sense.
     
  11. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    A corporation has an excuse to lower hours and wages. It makes perfect sense.
     
  12. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    Why would a corporation want to lower hours and wages?
     
  13. MorphingDragon macrumors 603

    MorphingDragon

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    Is that Rhetorical?
     
  14. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #14
    Ok take the bit about wages out.
     
  15. MorphingDragon macrumors 603

    MorphingDragon

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    #15
  16. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #16
    People choosing to not work due to the healthcare law doesn't make any sense before it's come into force.
     
  17. MorphingDragon macrumors 603

    MorphingDragon

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    The CBO report is the first thing to make such a prediction. Most news articles going on about it use it as a source. I would suggest reading the relevant sections if you want your answer.
     
  18. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #18
    Lower hours so they don't have to cover employees under benefits, lower wages so that the fat cats can afford another benz in the garage.

    Companies keeping workers below a threshold so they don't have to provide benefits isn't a new thing. The US just gave them an excuse to do it, "Well you know, that Obamacare".
     
  19. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #19
    If there is a surplus of people in the labor pool, they have to compete at lower rates. Economics 101. Same deal as companies competing in a large market: Control overhead and offer goods at marketable yet profitable prices--or die.
     
  20. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    Conversely, if unskilled/semi-skilled people in their late 50's and early 60's are working full time only to get access to an employer plan reduce their hours, that reduces the "surplus" of people in the labor pool, and, logically, should increase wages at the bottom. That should be a good thing. Econ 101 and all that. But, you know perfectly well that businesses will start complaining about the "labor shortage" and demand that lots of new immigrants come in who will work for less, increasing the labor pool. Because the wealthy like living in the Second Gilded Age and don't want that to change (back).
     
  21. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    I know more about the smaller businesses of, say, twenty or fewer employees. That's a very large percentage of all independent businesses. Any complaint generally has to do with competency of workers, not availability of warm bodies.

    I give credibility to the numbers at John Williams' ShadowStats.com website. There is no need whatsoever for any "...new immigrants come in who will work for less..."--if the business in on the books and following the laws for IRS and FICA.
     
  22. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #22
    I agree with you that there is no need whatsoever for new immigrants to come in, what with all the unemployed and underemployed in the U.S. today. Of course, the growers will have to pay more, and, fresh fruit and vegetables will have to cost consumers more. Like you said, Econ 101. The problem is that people want cheap "blueberries, blackberries, bell peppers, squash, cucumbers and watermelon", and, they also don't want to pay for the health care, education, housing, &etc., of citizens who pick fruit. You can't have it both ways.

    Well, actually, you can-- the U.S. has been living this lie for the last 50 years-- superficially objecting to illegal immigration while actually, it is precisely the illegality of it that makes it so attractive. People who work on the cheap, who show up, leave when the job is done, and, someone else pays for all the externalities. It is a rotten, hypocritical system. A system that depends upon hypocrisy to continue in its current form.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-unintended-consequences-georgias-immigration-law-backfires/


    http://business.time.com/2012/09/21/bitter-harvest-u-s-farmers-blame-billion-dollar-losses-on-immigration-laws/

    http://fruitgrowersnews.com/index.php/magazine/article/e-verify-contributes-to-labor-shortages-across-the-country
     
  23. TheHateMachine macrumors 6502a

    TheHateMachine

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    #23
    Person A: They took ere' Jerbs!

    Person B: Well, they didn't really plan to give you those jobs in the first place.
     
  24. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    Immigrants

    There is a fantastic combination of economics and poetry circulating that I saw on Upworthy. I think this may be a new art form. I kind of agree with the economics, but, not completely. But, that isn't all it is about, anyway.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bJX5XHnONTI

    http://www.upworthy.com/next-time-someone-tells-you-that-immigrants-are-destroying-our-country-show-them-this?c=reccon1

    http://www.upworthy.com/next-time-s...stroying-our-country-show-them-this?c=reccon1
     
  25. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

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    #25
    More supply and demand: the pilot shortage

    Here is another example of supply and demand:

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-11/yes-theres-a-pilot-shortage-salaries-start-at-21-000#r=read

    This article really cracked me up. Starting salaries at $21K per year to fly a 50-seat ERJ, and, they discover a "shortage" of pilots.
     

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