Peak Oil....adjust the calculations

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by dukebound85, Jan 31, 2010.

  1. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2005
    Location:
    5045 feet above sea level
    #1
  2. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2002
    Location:
    Yahooville S.C.
    #2
  3. DoFoT9 macrumors P6

    DoFoT9

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Location:
    Singapore
    #3
    wow ok so lots more oil. there is so much that we havent found either, stop worrying ;)
     
  4. flopticalcube macrumors G4

    flopticalcube

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2006
    Location:
    In the velcro closure of America's Hat
    #4
    Amounts don't matter. Production does. EROEI. If it costs 1 barrel of oil to recover another barrel of oil, it makes no difference if there is an infinite supply.
     
  5. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2003
    Location:
    Penryn
    #5
    Not only is it a matter of EROEI, it's also a matter of what kind of oil it is. AFAIK, Venezuelan crude is high in sulphur which is harder and more expensive to refine.
     
  6. ToroidalZeus macrumors 68020

    ToroidalZeus

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2009
    #6
    The oil calculations are intently low, so oil price is high. And as for when the price in = price out, supposedly it is less then 5 dollars for the saudi to process 1 gallon of oil, right now. If oil remains this high, that is a long time.
     
  7. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #7
    From what I've read about the oil in the Orinoco Basin, it's not only a high-sulfur crude, it's thick. (Only about 25% of wordlwide production, today, is "light, sweet crude"..) Bbl/day per well will therefore be on the low side, much like the Bakken Formation in the U.S. Note that Saudi wells produce in the thousands of bbl/day/well.

    Given the relationship between Chavez and the U.S., I have to wonder just when USGS people were actually there? Why would we even want to send them down there?

    Beginning a couple of years ago, the Chinese were negotiating with Chavez for access to Orinoco oil. But, even the Chinese are relatively weak in the technology to refine heavy, sour crude. Chavez' oil-folks lack the technology, ever since the majors were run out of the country.

    Bottom line? Yes, there's oil in the Orinoco. But this article could well be nothing more than misinformation and political puffery from Venezuela.
     
  8. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Communard de Londres
    #8
    It may well be misinformation and political puffery but from the U.S. not Venezuela,they haven't commented on the state run U.S. Geological Survey's waffling.
     
  9. flopticalcube macrumors G4

    flopticalcube

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2006
    Location:
    In the velcro closure of America's Hat
    #9
    A few years ago it cost them less than $1 bbl. As Garwar ages and moves further into decline, the average cost of extraction from it and newer fields will rise. The worldwide average extraction cost is now 3X what it was 10 years ago. Plenty of oil out there, its just getting more and more expensive to get out of the ground and turn into gasoline.
     
  10. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #10
    "It may well be misinformation and political puffery but from the U.S. not Venezuela,they haven't commented on the state run U.S. Geological Survey's waffling."

    You're going to have to amplify that, Peterkro. As is, it makes no sense at all.

    The USGS was cited as having made a definite statement. A Venezuelan partially disputed it. Waffling? What waffling?

    As for pricing of oil, the major deepwater offshore developments, where most of the newly-found major discoveries are, pretty much require oil to be at or above $70 to $75 per barrel to be profitable. Given the ten- to fifteen-year time to full development, we will see oil well above $75 or $80 before much longer.
     
  11. DoFoT9 macrumors P6

    DoFoT9

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Location:
    Singapore
    #11
    dad estimates that this is enough oil to last 1000 years... wow.... :eek:
     
  12. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #12
    500,000 million barrels. World demand right now is around 83 million barrels per day, or 30,195 million barrels per year.

    500,000 divided by 30,195 = 16.6 years.

    Granted, the Orinoco pool is but one among many, and the real issue is the actual production when fully developed.

    Googling, this URL provides some insight:

    http://www.radford.edu/wkovarik/oil/3unconventional.html

    And this:

    http://dieoff.org/page140.htm

    Note the comment about the type of oil in the Orinoco, and consder the limits for bbl/day per well of the "mud".
     
  13. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2005
    Location:
    Up the irons
    #13
    In light of recent news it wouldn't surprise me to see oil spike. Looks like the Nigerian militants are agitated again.
     
  14. DoFoT9 macrumors P6

    DoFoT9

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Location:
    Singapore
    #14
    hmm his maths aint to great then ;)

    only 16 years at current rates? ah well its an extra 16 years that we didnt have!

    p.s. KingYaba, i completely disagree with your link in ur sig ;)
     

Share This Page